October 29th! Do something......(say hello to or smile at a stranger) to make somebody feel especially lucky today......... Then think about how lucky you are to be living in this era of plenty in human history!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Major cold blast in progress. This is featuring early snow in the colder air ahead of Halloween. Snow forecast below.
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
COLD Rockies to Plains............moves southeast and moderates this week.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Big blue moves southeast.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Powerful cold front and very chilly air dropping southeast before this period, then reinforcements.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
More heavy rains in places that were MUCH too dry this Summer, boosting soil moisture in these places............after the growing season is over.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Grams/Leitman Issued: 30/1238Z Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Mosier Issued: 30/0537Z Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Mosier Issued: 30/0725Z Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
Oct. 24: TOP MAP SHOWS DROUGHT DECREASED in the Southeast thanks to some very welcome rains but much more is needed.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 13, 2019 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
By wxgrant - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:11 p.m.
1993 anyone? This is the 240hr Operational Euro which is painting some snow the morning of Halloween. I know it probably won't happen but I love winter weather and I'm glad it's that time of the year where hour 240 is always interesting somewhere :-) . There was a huge cold air outbreak around Halloween 1993. Snowed as far south as Montgomery Alabama that day.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural Gas October 14, 2019
By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:42 p.m.
Thanks Grant!
I remember that one vividly and it was actually the day before Halloween here in Evansville, Oct 30th which was a Saturday.
I went sledding with the kids and we made a snow man in the backyard.
I went Trick or Treating with the kids the next day with the snow on the ground and sub freezing temps.
I'm guessing our snow was just over 6 inches and it was a record for October but will retrieve the records.
Snow storms have always been my favorite too. When I moved down here in 1982 from Cincinnati(6 months) after living in Michigan, it was thought to be temporary and farther south than I would have preferred because of less snow(but I was going to any tv station that would hire me-including applying at Fairbanks Alaska)
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By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:55 p.m.
OK, we got a total of 4.6 inches from that event, 3.7 inches fell on October 30th(most of which was very early in the morning.
The 3.7 inches is a record for 24 hours in October.
Our record snow for November is 6.9 inches set on the 28th in 1958.
That snow event in 1993 is the biggest snow in the records until the event on Nov 28th almost a month later to show how anomalous the Oct 1993 event was.
Go to snowfall at the link below
https://www.weather.gov/pah/EvansvilleDailyNormalsAndRecords
Maybe I can retrieve some wx maps of that storm now.
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By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:58 p.m.
https://www.weather.gov/pah/SnowOct29-31_1993
OK, even better:
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By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 8:06 p.m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzosOgVFQJY
A surprise snowstorm hit the Cincinnati area on the weekend of Oct. 30-31, 1993. When it ended on Sunday, there were 6.2 inches on the ground, marking the first White Halloween on record in the region. The 5.9 inches of snow on Saturday – Halloween Eve - was a record for a single day in October. The next day, the coldest high temperature for Halloween - just 36 degrees – kept a lot of trick-or-treaters home.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural Gas October 14, 2019
By cutworm - Oct. 21, 2019, 10:42 p.m.
I remember taking the kids Trick or Treating that year! Great memories! Should have had abominable snow man costumes!