INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 30, 2019, 8:07 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, October 30, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 515.9)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -11.9%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 241.7)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.6%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2076.9)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -17.1%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. October ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +100000; previous +135000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +1.6%; previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.9%; previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +4.6%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (expected 433.151M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +0.8M; previous -1.699M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 223.094M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -2.1M; previous -3.107M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 120.786M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -2.4M; previous -2.715M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (expected 85.7%; previous 85.2%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.164M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.259M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

 



 

 

                       Federal Funds Rate

 



 

 

                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

 



 

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.00)

 



 

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.75)

 



 

 

                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 7)

 



 

 

                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 3)

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate (previous 2.50)

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous -0.25)

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate-Range High

 



 

 

                       Discount Rate-Range Low

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher in overnight trading as it remains above broken resistance marked by July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7882.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8127.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7973.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7882.29.



The December S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2966.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3044.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3012.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2980.33.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as it bounces off support marked by the 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.



December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.148 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.148. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14.  



December heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.20. Second support is the October 3rd low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 165.72. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 160.83. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157.91.  



December Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the upside breakout of October's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the September 24th high crossing at 2.762 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.480 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 2.762. Second resistance is September's highcrossing at 2.884. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.605. Second support is the October 11th low crossing at 2.388.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.00. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.  



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.05. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.    



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2705 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2705. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2504.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0162 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0134. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0162. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.



The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.44. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0919. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight while extending the August-October trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was steady to higher overnight as it extends October's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 24th high crossing at 18.810 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.74. Second support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight.The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness into November. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.      



December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.90 3/4.   



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 2-cents at 4.19.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.17 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.08 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.  



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 5.49 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 5.21 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.42 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.42 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.12 1/2.  



December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 292.00.    



December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 30.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.58.  



Comments
By metmike - Oct. 30, 2019, 10:57 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

By cutworm - Oct. 30, 2019, 11:35 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks TP