INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 31, 2019, 7:57 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, October 31, 2019  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. October Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -22.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 582.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 475.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 262.4K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index

 



 

 

                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 212K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1682000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. October ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 48.5; previous 47.1)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3606B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +87B)

 

                        

 

3:00 PM ET. October Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

N/A               U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities final results

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as Bloomberg Television reported that China has doubts it can reach a long-term trade deal with President Trump. News about U.S.-China trade talks has frequently moved financial markets.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7907.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8141.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7993.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7907.06.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as trade deal between the U.S. and China remains in doubt. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2987.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3052.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3018.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2987.69.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off the 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-30. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.



December T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.142 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.142. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.  



December heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 181.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 188.04. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 165.72. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.71.  



December Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the September 24th high crossing at 2.762 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.512 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 2.762. Second resistance is September's highcrossing at 2.884. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.512. Second support is the October 11th low crossing at 2.388.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.  



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.    



The December British Pound was  higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2736 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2736. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2520.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December resumes the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight while extending the August-October trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was higher overnight as it extends October's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 18.350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.87. Second support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight following a report China doubts long-term trade pact possible with Trump. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 would open the door for additional weakness into November. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.      



December wheat was lower overnight as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.91 1/2.   



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 4.18 1/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.08 3/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.  



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 5.49 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off October's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.40 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.40 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/4.  



December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 292.00.    



December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.61.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $1.45 at $65.77. 



December hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the August-October trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.35 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 79.97. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75. 



December cattle closed up $1.48 at 118.30. 



December cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 117.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.63.  

 

November Feeder cattle closed up $3.20-cents at $144.80. 



November Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 144.97. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 135.76.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.79 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, October's high crossing at 10.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.92 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.66 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.   

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 31, 2019, 1:57 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Week 2 models turning much milder, pressuring ng. Key reversal down today unless there is a miraculous recovery!!!! The highs are likely in now.

Dry weather the next 2 weeks will be favorable for harvest to pick up.