INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Nov. 1, 2019, 7:44 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, November 1, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +75K; previous +136K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.5%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.09)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous -0.01)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.04%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +22K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +114K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. October US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 51.5; previous 51.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.1; previous 47.8)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 49.7)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 46.3)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 46.9)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 47.3)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 47.3)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. October Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends this week's trading range above broken resistance marked by July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7923.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8141.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8015.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7923.86.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2992.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3052.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3023.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2992.04.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-30. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.



December T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.141 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.141. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.28. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.  



December heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 181.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 165.72. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.87.  



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.511 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this week's rally, the September 24th high crossing at 2.762 is the next upside target.First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 2.762. Second resistance is September's highcrossing at 2.884. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.511. Second support is the October 11th low crossing at 2.388.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a steady to lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.  



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.03. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.    



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2766 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2766. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.25233.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 1.0205 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0230. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December resumes the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.70.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight while extending the August-October trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was lower overnight while extending October's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 18.350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 260.97. Second support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness into November. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.      



December wheat was lower overnight as it extended the decline off October's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/4. Second support is the September 25th low crossing at 4.76 1/4.   



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.19 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.     



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 5.49 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.14 1/2.  



December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 292.00.    



December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.65.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $0.23 at $66.00. 



December hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the August-October trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 63.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 79.97. First support is October's low crossing at 63.08. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75. 



December cattle closed down $1.08 at 117.23. 



December cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 117.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.95.  

 

November Feeder cattle closed down $0.28-cents at $147.60. 



November Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 144.97. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.06.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, October's high crossing at 10.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



December cocoa closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.92 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.   

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 1, 2019, 1:27 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Weather models have turned much colder in week 2 and resulted in natural gas spiking back higher.......negating yesterdays big key reversal down.

Chilly and dry for grain harvest.

Increasing rains coming week 2 for coffee.