https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm
Wheat: Net sales of 29,500 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2017/2018 were down 74 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.Increases were primarily for South Korea (64,900 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (22,000 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Spain (21,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (16,100 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Guyana (11,300 MT, including 7,800 MT switched from the United Kingdom and 3,200 MT switched from unknown destinations).Reductions were primarily reported for unknown destinations (126,100 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 270,900 MT primarily reported for Thailand (110,000 MT), Japan (80,400 MT), and unknown destinations (45,000 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Mexico (10,900 MT).Exports of 443,100 MT were up 22 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were to Japan (113,100 MT), China (62,300 MT), Mexico (48,700 MT), Taiwan (36,200 MT), and Chile (35,500 MT).
Corn: Net sales of 993,100 MT for 2017/2018 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Japan (299,100 MT, including 176,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Mexico (291,800 MT, including decreases of 19,600 MT), Colombia (113,100 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (81,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Spain (77,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).Reductions were primarily for unknown destinations (104,500 MT), Algeria (45,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (22,000 MT), and Egypt (17,500 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 149,300 MT were reported for Mexico (68,100 MT), Japan (50,000 MT), and unknown destinations (25,400 MT).Exports of 1,894,800 MT were up 29 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were primarily to Mexico (322,500 MT), Japan (305,300 MT), South Korea (203,700 MT), Vietnam (179,500 MT), and Spain (173,500 MT).
Optional Origin Sales: For 2017/2018, new optional origin sales of 70,000 MT were reported for Saudi Arabia.Options were exercised to export 68,000 MT to South Korea from the United States.The current optional origin outstanding balance of 602,000 MT is for South Korea (276,000 MT), unknown destinations (141,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (70,000 MT), Vietnam (65,000 MT), and Egypt (50,000 MT).For 2018/2019, new optional sales of 70,000 MT were reported for Saudi Arabia.
Export Adjustments: Accumulated exports of corn to Mexico were adjusted down 195 MT for week ending February 8th.This shipment should have been reported as a cancelation and is corrected in this week’s report.
Barley:Net sales reductions of 600 MT for 2017/2018 were reported for Japan.For 2018/2019, net sales of 900 MT were reported for Japan (600 MT) and South Korea (300 MT).Exports of 200 MT were to South Korea.
Sorghum:Net sales reductions of 295,800 MT for 2017/2018--a marketing-year low--resulted as increases for Taiwan (100 MT), were more than offset by reductions for China (163,800 MT) and unknown destinations (132,000 MT).Exports of 77,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were China (51,700 MT), Japan (25,400 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT).
Soybeans: Net sales of 273,400 MT for 2017/2018 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Japan (91,400 MT, including 27,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases 1,200 MT), the Netherlands (69,400 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Pakistan (58,500 MT), Mexico (46,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Indonesia (24,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT).Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (96,900 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 771,600 MT were primarily reported for China (438,000 MT) and unknown destinations (330,000 MT).Exports of 647,800 MT were down 28 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were primarily to China (207,900 MT), Japan (111,600 MT), Mexico (102,900 MT), the Netherlands (69,400 MT), and Egypt (53,800 MT).
This is one of the most bullish week 2 forecasts in recent memory. Corn and beans should be showing double digit rains. What is the problem?
1. Week 1 rains.............1 bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush..............a big rain in week 1 is better than a speculative week 2 dome.
2. Strong dollar
3. China issue
4. Strong technical and seasonal topping formation earlier this week.
5. Funds already long with loads of risk premium in already
6. Corn crop rating of 79%. Am thinking that might be the 2nd highest ever.
7. The GFS and other operational models have some big rain events into week 2, even though the pattern/guidance is pretty dry. With the dome in the S.Plains, northwest flow and ridge riders could bring more rain then one might imagine from perturbations coming around the periphery of the heat ridge.
I'm NOT bearish because of the pattern(lost money yesterday being long beans) but am just throwing out explanations for why THE MARKET is trading bearish with such bullish extended outlooks(which often dominate my trade decisions)