INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 13, 2019, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 13, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 518.7)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 241.0)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2102.7)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.3M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.2M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.6M)

 



 

 

Thursday, November 14, 2019   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 211K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1689000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3729B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +34B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 446.782M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.929M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 217.229M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.828M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.132M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.622M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 86.0%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.134M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.463M)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight following Tuesday's spike to a new all-time high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8096.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8300.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8214.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8096.90.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight due to profit taking following Tuesday's spike to a new all-time high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3044.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3101.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3075.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3044.97.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate above the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-29. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-21. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06.



December T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.116 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.116. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.302. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 126.122.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 57.88. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.79. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.  



December heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. If December renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 154.17.  



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.624 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 2.755 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 2.755. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.905. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.624. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.575.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the October 15th high crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.53. Second support is October's low crossing at 96.88.



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.303. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. First support is the October 8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.  



The December British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. If December extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2628 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2628.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0130 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0045. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. 



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 74.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.10 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. First support is the overnight low crossing at 75.37. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.0929 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0929. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1499.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.727 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline,  the 50-day moving average crossing at 262.88 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 262.88. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the September 18th low crossing at 3.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.20 3/4. First support is the September 18th low crossing at 3.78. Second support is September low crossing at 3.65 3/4.      



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is the October's low crossing at 4.92 1/4.   



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 16-cents at 4.38 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.13 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.44 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the October 24th high crossing at 5.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.71 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were steady to fractionally lower in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.35 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.35 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.12. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.95 3/4.  



January soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 293.80.    



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.58.  



Comments
By metmike - Nov. 13, 2019, 1 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Grain weather is bearish for SA and for the US harvest. With basis levels so high for corn and production less that what our USDA tells us, its hard to imagine corn going much lower ahead of December going off the board. Cash bids are strong.

Natural gas right at support. GFS products turning colder in week 2.......on some solutions Going back to milder and we crash lower though.


Coffee weather good on US model but on the dry side on the European model.