KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.8%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.3%)
8:30 AM ET. October New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.30M; previous 1.256M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +3.5%; previous -9.4%)
Building Permits (expected 1.40M; previous 1.387M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous -2.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. October Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 568.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +9.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 253.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +5.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2374.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +12.9%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 449.001M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.219M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.09M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.861M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 116.655M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.477M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.5M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.366M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
Thursday, November 21, 2019
8:30 AM ET. November Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 5.0; previous 5.6)
Prices Paid (previous 16.8)
Employment (previous 32.9)
New Orders (previous 26.2)
Prices Received (previous 16.4)
Delivery Times (previous 8.0)
Inventories (previous 6.6)
Shipments (previous 18.9)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 225K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +14K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1683000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -10K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 581.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1256K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 238.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. October Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.50M; previous 5.38M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +2.2%; previous -2.2%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 272100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3732B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +3B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
N/A October Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -0.1%)
Leading Index (previous 111.9)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
N/A Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown
Friday, November 22, 2019
9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 51.5)
9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.0)
10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 94.9; previous 95.5)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 84.2)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2)
11:00 AM ET. November Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District
Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 2)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 2)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -3)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 8)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it continues to push to a new record high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8182.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8335.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8182.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7967.94.
The December S&P 500 extended this fall's rally to a new all-time high in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3069.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3132.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3099.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3069.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06.
December T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.079 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.079. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.262. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 126.122.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Oil declined for a second day on indications American crude stockpiles and shale output will keep expanding. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 58.09. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.58. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.
December heating oil was lower overnight while extending the October-November trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. If December renews the rally off the late-October low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.
December unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 159.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is November's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 154.17.
December Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's huge decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the October 28th gap crossing at 2.480 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.755 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.755. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 2.905. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.535. Second support is the October 28th gap crossing at 2.480.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October 15th high crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.67. Second support is October's low crossing at 96.88.
The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.08. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 112.22. First support is the October 8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.
The December British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2661 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2661.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0182 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0045. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.97 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 74.96 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 75.35. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.
The December Japanese Yen was steady overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1495.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.624 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.624. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 261.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.89 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.77. Second support is September low crossing at 3.65 3/4.
March wheat was higher overnight following Monday's key reversal up. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 4.92 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.82 3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.18 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.15 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.15 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 5.09 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.43 1/2. Second resistance is October 24th high crossing at 5.63. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 5.18. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 5.09 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.00 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.28 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.28 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.12. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.00 3/4.
January soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 309.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is November's low crossing at 300.80. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30.
March soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.74. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 30.04.
Thank you tallpine!
Still bearish South America weather for grains and coffee.
Natural gas weather has been bearish this week, milder temps but could be turning colder and be supportive soon.