Lucky November 19th! Smile and say hello to some real people today. Then think about how lucky you are to be living in this era of plenty in human history!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
New: 30 day, daily weather at the bottom.
Much milder weather models for week 2 yesterday but here on Tuesday, starting to turn colder again.
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Near average.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Not too far from average. Low temps a bit milder than average.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
More active. New colds will not be all that cold because its so mild in Canada.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Picking up midweek. A wetter period coming up but not excessive.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Grams/Leitman Issued: 30/1238Z Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Mosier Issued: 30/0537Z Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Mosier Issued: 30/0725Z Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
November 14: TOP MAP SHOWS DROUGHT DECREASED a great deal from recent robust rains. This has been the theme for several weeks now. The drought has improved immensely during that period.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 04, 2019 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Sunday: Upper level ridge in Canada and downstream trough in the East/Southeast couplet strongly favors movement of air masses from Canada south into the southeast/east half of the US. No Arctic or frigid air seen yet.
Monday: Looks completely different than yesterday. Much milder. Upper level positive anomalies are in northeast Canada and E.Pacific, not coupled well with anything downstream.
Tuesday: This run looked pretty mild in the East but the individual solutions and runs are showing volatility/uncertainty. After this run, its looked a bit colder.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Discussions, starting with a week ago.
Monday: Not much change. Arctic cold will be aimed towards the other side of the NorthPole and Canada gets very mild the next 10+ days. AO stays negative and NAO actually drops to negative at the end of 2 weeks, so cold threats "could" return later in November.
Wednesday: The huge deal here is the NAO crashing lower during week 2. This makes the Northeast US a target for what cold there is in Canada. Also, the potential for Nor'Easters.
Thursday: Huge changes. AO increasing to close to 0 in week 2, NAO also closer to zero. This lessens the change for cold, especially frigid temps from high latitudes/Arctic.
Friday: Negative AO and NAO with positive PNA are much colder today vs yesterday. A lot of volatility and change in week 2 forecasts.......yesterday was milder, today the coldest of the week.
Sunday: Still negative AO but with huge spread from very negative up to around 0. NAO is falling in week 2 and negative but that too has a very wide spread meaning great uncertainty and potential for model to model changes. However, this strongly favors a warm West, very chilly East pattern with an upper level ridge/West and trough/East couplet that ushers Canadian air masses into the Eastern half(Midwest at times). Canada will be very mild, so the brand of cold will not be Arctic or frigid. PNA is near 0, not a factor.
Monday: Huge changes. AO increasing to close to zero(big spread in solutions), NAO just slightly negative and both are higher than recent values. Reduces cold risks but solutions are volatile..........low confidence. PNA drifts a bit lower, near 0 and neutral.
Tuesday: AO slight negative, with NAO and PNA near zero. No strong indications but the pattern looks like it could morph colder again. Low confidence.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
By metmike - Nov. 18, 2019, 9:03 p.m.
Just for entertainment, let's look at the just updated European model monthly outlook, 850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with the day after Thanksgiving and going out every 24 hours thru December 19th.