Stk market bubble
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Started by wglassfo - Nov. 21, 2019, 10:34 a.m.

If yow own substantil amounts of stks as we do, [although to use "substantial" might be peanuts to another person]

Never the less, if we lost a good part of the value of our stk portfolio it would hurt 

So: Most people agree the stk market will "POP" but nobody knows when

So: A lot of people have these stk market, paper profits which look good

Now in our situation we take a % of dollar value out in cash, as this was tax exempt money used to invest and now our gov't says it is time to pay some taxes . We used the money to speed up my land payments until all the land was paid for

Well I just went and spent 100,000 on tile. My wife says enough is enough, As fast as she helps pay down debt I just incurr new debt, which I can't really argue as I want more tile

So now she says I am on my own and she wants to buy bank stk which in her "picks" pay dividends which she dearly loves

I liked the old way of cconverting paper profitss into cash, even if we disagree on how to use the cash

My arguement is the bubble will POP some day and then we are  in a world or hurt depending on how bad the POP may be. The last time we just held the stk and the market recovered

My argument is we all agree on the POP theory. We just don't know when and until then paper profits look good

I am saying when the POP comes nobody will know until it is too late. How many times has buying the dips worked in the past. People will say this is another dip but  in fact some day it won't. It will be the big POP

SO:

Should a person take some cash from stk profits or just keep on the program with even bigger profits

The people who have stayed in the market have clearly been the winners

I say some day the winners will be the biggest losers

I will never win an arguement with my wife, especially since it is her money, so don't let our actions influence your remarks

I might add money invested in land has out performed her stk portfolio by multiples of ??

Our retirement fund is almost all land rent, from paid for land, even though she helped pay the mortgage, so I guess stk did help our retirement fund, to be totally honest

So:

What do you think???

Shoukd a person with stks just keep on with paper profits or should some be taken out in cash and then smaller paper profits would result

Or:

Do you have some method of knowing when the POP will happen as I would dearly love to know your secret

Comments
By TimNew - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:24 a.m.
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It's different for each individual.

How much will you need in the next year?

How much will you need in the next 5 years?

How much will you need in 10 years?

Obviously, what you need over the next year should be cash,  or very close to it.

What you need over 5 years should be conservative.  Bonds and such, maybe even a little precious metal if that's your liking.

Over 5 years?   Most "crashes" will largely recover in 5 years but a mix of 60/40 is probably OK.  

Over 10 you can take as aggressive a position as you like. Failing a total economic collapse, this will be your best return.  If there is a total economic collapse,  your best investment will be ammunition.