Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:20 a.m.

Happy November 21st!   Smile and say hello to some real people today.  Then think about how lucky you are to be living in this era of plenty in human history!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of  extra beneficial CO2.

New: 30 day, daily weather at the bottom, will be updated this evening.

Models milder overnight but still potentially colder in early December. Lots of uncertainty.

Winter Weather Forecasts

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   

 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.


   

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:22 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Near average.  Turning colder West to N.Plains/Upper Midwest.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:22 a.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  


Not too far from average.  Low temps a bit milder than average.



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:25 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


More active.  New cold fronts will not be all that cold because its so mild in Canada storm with snow next week central Plains to Upper Midwest.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.



Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

                                    

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:29 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/dailyStatic mapStatic map

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:30 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:30 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:34 a.m.
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Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

November 21: DROUGHT the last  month+ has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas for the Winter wheat crop.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/    

Drought Monitor for conus

            

Drought Monitor for conus

        









By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:36 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 06, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:37 a.m.
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0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:37 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Sunday: Upper level ridge in Canada and downstream trough in the East/Southeast couplet strongly favors movement of air masses from Canada south into the southeast/east half of the US.  No Arctic or frigid air seen yet.

Monday: Looks completely different than yesterday. Much milder. Upper level positive anomalies are in northeast Canada and E.Pacific, not coupled well with anything downstream. 

Tuesday: This run looked pretty mild in the East but the individual solutions and runs are showing volatility/uncertainty. After this run, its looked a bit colder.


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:39 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Discussions, starting with a week ago.

Monday: Not much change. Arctic cold will be aimed towards the other side of the NorthPole and Canada gets very mild the next 10+ days.  AO stays negative and NAO actually drops to negative at the end of 2 weeks, so cold threats "could" return later in November.

Wednesday: The huge deal here is the NAO crashing lower during week 2. This makes the Northeast US a target for what cold there is in Canada. Also, the potential for Nor'Easters.

Thursday: Huge changes. AO increasing to close to 0 in week 2, NAO also closer to zero. This lessens the change for cold, especially frigid temps from high latitudes/Arctic.

Friday: Negative AO and NAO with positive PNA are much colder today vs yesterday. A lot of volatility and change in week 2 forecasts.......yesterday was milder, today the coldest of the week. 

Sunday:  Still negative AO but with huge spread from very negative up to around 0. NAO is falling in week 2 and negative but that too has a very wide spread meaning great uncertainty and potential for model to model changes. However, this strongly favors a warm West, very chilly East pattern with an upper level ridge/West and trough/East couplet that ushers Canadian air masses into the Eastern half(Midwest at times). Canada will be very mild, so the brand of cold will not be Arctic or frigid. PNA is near 0, not a factor.

Monday: Huge changes. AO increasing to close to zero(big spread in solutions), NAO just slightly negative and both are higher than recent values. Reduces cold risks but solutions are volatile..........low confidence. PNA drifts a bit lower, near 0 and neutral. 

Tuesday:  AO slight negative, with NAO and PNA near zero. No strong indications but the pattern looks like it could morph colder again. Low confidence. 

Wednesday: Models overnight were colder

Thursday: AO and NAO closer to zero and not as cold. PNA also near zero.

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:40 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

                                    

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2019, 11:41 a.m.
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 Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            

                            By metmike - Nov. 18, 2019, 9:03 p.m.            

   


Just for entertainment, let's look at the just updated European model monthly outlook, 850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with the day after Thanksgiving and going out every 24 hours thru December 19th.