INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 25, 2019, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, November 25, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous -0.45)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.24)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. November Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous -5.1)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 4.5)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8238.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 8379.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8238.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7997.48.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3088.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3132.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3088.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3020.42.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 161-22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-11. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06.



December T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.071 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.269. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 126.122.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 53.84.  



January heating oil was slightly lower overnight while extending the October-November trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the October low, the September 16th high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 184.41 would open the door for a test of October's low crossing at 180.42. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.02. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 207.82. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 184.41. Second support is October's low crossing at 180.42.  



January unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, May's high crossing at 173.61 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 170.36. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 173.61. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.29. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 155.64.  



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 2.250 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.745 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.745. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.785. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.570. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.250.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 97.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October 15th high crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 97.55. Second support is November's low crossing at 96.96.



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.91. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 112.22. First support is the October 8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.  



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2700 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2708.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight testing October's low crossing at 1.0029. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0154 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0154. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 74.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.26. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 75.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1492.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is November's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.549 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.549. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.79 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.76 3/4. Second support is September low crossing at 3.65 3/4.    



March wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, October's high crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.37. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.41. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.04. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.90 3/4.   



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 4.33 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday while extending the August-November trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.29. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.20 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.20 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 9.41. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.88 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.76 3/4.  



January soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 309.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30.     



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 32.44. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.86 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.86. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 30.04.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $0.58 at $61.23. 



December hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target. Multiple close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.55 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 67.65. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 60.05. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.  



December cattle closed down $0.65 at 118.68. 



December cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 117.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.33. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the reaction low crossing at 117.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.94.  

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $3.33-cents at $139.28. 



January Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 140.59 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, October's low crossing at 136.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is today's low crossing at 138.27. Second support is October's low crossing at 136.10.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 11.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



December cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the May 2018 high crossing at 28.33 is the next upside target.     



March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 12.93 is the next upside target. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.49 would confirm that a top has been posted.  



December cotton closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 59.58 is the next downside target.      

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 25, 2019, 10:11 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine>


Big weather.

For natural gas, the week 2 pattern and beyond that looked very cold on Friday, looks MUCH milder!

For corn, a major Winter storm this weekend with heavy snow and high winds has given us a bounce here. There will likely be some production losses in the field from the Central Plains to Upper Midwest because of so much corn still unharvested.

Not sure how far up we can go on just this.


This should not affect soybeans.

Weather in South America is almost perfect/bearish but Argentina will be drying out in week 2.............just something to watch.