INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 26, 2019, 7:46 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.1%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. September U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.8%; previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected 5.5; previous 8)

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 126.8; previous 125.9)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 94.9)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 172.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 705K; previous 701K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous -0.7%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.5)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.0M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.4M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 27, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 556.0)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 270.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +6.7%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2190.6)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +1.9%; previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +3.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous -1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.7%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 227K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1695000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 47.1; previous 43.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 108.7)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +3.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 450.38M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.379M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 220.846M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.756M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.681M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.974M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 89.5%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.231M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.269M)

 

                        

 

12:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3638B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -94B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. November Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -3.9%)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8258.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8422.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8258.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8008.00.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3094.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3144.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3094.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3023.43.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 161-22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-12. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06.



December T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.084 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.272. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 126.122.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 53.84.  



January heating oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the October-November trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the October low, the September 16th high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 184.41 would open the door for a test of October's low crossing at 180.42. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.02. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 207.82. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 184.41. Second support is October's low crossing at 180.42.  



January unleaded gas was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, May's high crossing at 173.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 170.36. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 173.61. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 155.64.  



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 2.475 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.733 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.733. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.785. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.511. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.475.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October 15th high crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 97.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 97.55. Second support is November's low crossing at 96.96.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.56. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 112.22. First support is the October 8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.  



The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2715 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2715.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it tests support marked by October's low crossing at 1.0029. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0154 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0154. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000. 



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.26. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 75.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1491.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is November's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.525 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.525. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 267.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.76 3/4. Second support is September low crossing at 3.65 3/4.    



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's rally, October's high crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.37. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.41. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.04. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.90 3/4.   



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 12-cents at 4.45 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday while extending the August-November trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.16 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off October's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.17 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.17 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 9.41. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.88 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 8.76 3/4.  



January soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 309.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 300.30. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30.     



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the October 10th low crossing at 30.04 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 31.86 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the October 10th low crossing at 30.04. Second support is the September 27th low crossing at 29.28.  



Comments
By metmike - Nov. 26, 2019, 12:36 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!


Natural gas still getting pressured by milder forecasts......expiration today of the Dec contract.

South America weather still bearish......lots of rain.....however, Argentina will be turning dry, something to watch the next couple of weeks for possible bullish news.

Intense, wind bag snowstorms clobbering the Midwest this week. Next one Fri/Sat/Sun. Corn left in the field will suffer some minor? losses but the market doesn't care today.


Tons of rain for coffee..too much rain?