Weather Sunday
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Started by metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:24 a.m.

Welcome to December! Christmas is our next holiday. Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the year!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2. 

Much warmer temps vs the forecasts for the previous week crushed ng last week.  No  major cold returning for awhile on forecast models, so no good reason for prices to go up.........but that can change fast in December. Yeah, so fast that the 12z GFS Ensembles out just after I typed this has a new major cold surge in week 2 that wasn't on any previous runs. Is this a fluke? If other models follow and future runs amplify this, then ng can go higher. I'll be skeptical until seeing more than just this as evidence.

Latest (low skill)  week 3-4 forecast at the the bottom........mostly mild thru the rest of the year. Don't take that one to the bank.

 Winter storm in the Northeast in  progress with HIGH WINDS and heavy snow!

Winter Weather Forecasts

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                        Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning





Highs today and tomorrow.



By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:26 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Minor Fluctuations around average.......then warming up.



By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:27 a.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  

Extremes diminish..........closer to average.  Warming from the West. Mild Plains.



By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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Weather features day 3-7:



By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:29 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Some is heavy snow in the cold sector/Northeast today.

Mostly dry this week.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:30 a.m.
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Excessive rain potential

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast




By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:31 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that mapStatic map

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:32 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      





By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:32 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:33 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

November 28: DROUGHT the last  2 months has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas for the Winter wheat crop.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.    


  • Drought Monitor for conus


  Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:39 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Sunday: Way, way more zonal and mild the past 2 days!!!!

Monday:  Other models are more zonal and milder today......but the Canadian model is back to amplifying the pattern at the end of 2 weeks, so this model is colder.

Tuesday: Back to more zonal/mild, west to east steering currents today.

Thursday: Some members getting much colder late week 2

Friday: Zonal, mild west to east flow. Pretty strong agreement.

Saturday: No change from yesterday.

Sunday:  Major cold still cut off. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 16, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:39 a.m.
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0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:41 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Starting with last week:

Monday: The GFS ensemble is much milder and more zonal today.  Just weak anomalies.

Tuesday: Slight  positive anomaly West and slight negative anomaly Northeast.

Friday: Mild flow. No cold air connection. Especially mild West to middle of the country.

Saturday: Still mild, especially in Canada so cold fronts will not be that cold.

Sunday:  Similar to the last week..........mild.  
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:45 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with a week ago.

Last Sunday: Huge AO changes. Many members go very strongly positive which lessens cold air outbreak probabilities. However, some are still negative, so an incredible spread and uncertainty.  NAO increasing from low values to a tad above 0.........also lessening cold risks at 2 weeks. PNA near 0.  Cold risk after the first week in December have decreased. 

Monday: Very positive AO decreases chances for cold from high latitudes moving to the middle latitudes. NAO moving to slightly positive is also a potential mild indicator. PNA close to zero but dropping a bit late.

Tuesday: AO spikes extremely positive, then comes back down towards zero in week 2. NAO slightly positive, PNA near zero.

Friday: Very Positive AO and NAO mean mild temps/no cold air delivery from the north. Dropping late week 2 but still positive. PNA decreases from positive to just below 0 late.

Saturday. Positive AO but a change from yesterday late week 2 as it plunges. Mainly from several members fairly negative.   The actual pattern still favor +AO regime. NAO is also positive/mild but drop towards 0 at the end of 2 weeks. PNA slightly positive. Overall, at least well into week 2, indicators are favorable for mild temps.                              

Sunday: AO and NAO stay positive thru 2 weeks(some fairly positive values early in the period) this makes frigid outbreaks extremely unlikely. PNA slightly positive(warm West)

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:45 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2019, 11:48 a.m.
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Don't use that maps below for anything more than an explanation for why the ng market accelerated its push down.
They are low skill and now are 2 days old........although we don't see anything that has changed.
Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 14 Dec 2019 to 27 Dec 2019
Updated: 29 Nov 2019

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability  

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps