INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 3, 2019, 7:27 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, December 3, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.5%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 47.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. November Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.4M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)

 



 

 



 

 

Wednesday, December 4, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx  (previous 564.1)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.1)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2282.2)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. November ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +125000)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 50.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 54.7)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx  (previous 57.0)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 56.6)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 53.7)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 55.6)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 451.952M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.572M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.978M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.132M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous +0.56M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.725M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 89.3%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.106M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.125M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. November Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.0)

 



 

 

Thursday, December 5, 2019  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +20.97%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -52.45B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 205.99B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 258.44B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -1.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 213K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1640000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -57K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3610B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -28B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

Friday, December 6, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +128K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.18)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.21%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -3K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +131K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 63.3%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 95.7)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 85.9)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.9)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. October Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +9.51B)

 



 

 

  N/A               The Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extended Monday's sharp decline, which was triggered by weaker-than-expected November U.S. manufacturing data at a time when investors have been hoping for a positive inflection in global growth. Some of the downside pressure was also attributed to President Donald Trump’s decision to re-impose tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Brazil and Argentina. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8303.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8458.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8303.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8231.00.  



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends Monday's sharp decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3108.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3154.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3108.56. Second support is the November 21st reaction low crossing at 3093.00.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, November's low crossing at 155-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 160-29 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is Monday's low crossing at 158-01. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-26.



December T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, November's low crossing at 127.315 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.262. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. First support is November's low crossing at 127.315. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's huge decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the November 20th low crossing at 54.85 would confirm that a top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. First support is the November 20th low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 53.84.  



January heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the October-November trading range crossing at 197.02. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below November's low crossing at 184.41 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 180.42. If January resumes the rally off the October low, the September 16th high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 197.16. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 207.82. First support is November's low crossing at 184.41. Second support is October's low crossing at 180.42.  



January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 155.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 163.96 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 170.36. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 173.61. First support is the reaction low crossing at 155.64. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 152.09.  



January Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's huge decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.651 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.187 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.518. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.651. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.305. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.187.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Monday's sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 97.55 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October 8th high crossing at 98.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 99.31. First support is the reaction low crossing at 97.55. Second support is November's low crossing at 96.96.  



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.79 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December resumes the decline off September's high, last-Friday's low crossing at 109.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 111.13. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.22. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.90. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.   



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2750 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3002. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2750.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rebound off support marked by May's low crossing at 1.0000. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0109 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9918 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0109. Second resistance is the November 18th high crossing at 1.0154. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9987. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9918. 



The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.67 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.67. First support is November's low crossing at 75.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0912. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1487.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1466.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1487.50. First support is November's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was higher overnight as it extends November's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.434 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.434. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 273.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is November's low crossing at 261.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.91 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's low, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.91 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4.   



March wheat higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 7 3/4-cents at 4.39 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday while extending the August-November trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below November's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 8.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.89 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.67 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.65.    



January soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 288.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 298.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 292.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 288.30.    



January soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 29.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 31.59. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 32.17. First support is Monday's low crossing at 30.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 29.55.   



Comments
By metmike - Dec. 3, 2019, 12:35 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Weather forecast keeps getting colder and colder for natural gas which is really fired up today. The lows are in.

Rain chances for Argentina look decent in week 2 after being dry before then. Plenty of rain in Brazil.