INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 6, 2019, 7:13 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, December 6, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +128K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.18)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.21%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -3K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +131K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 63.3%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 95.7)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 85.9)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.9)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. October Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +9.51B)

 



 

 

  N/A               The Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If December renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8078.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8458.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8078.66. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at 7810.25.  



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3124.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3038.86 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3154.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3073.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3041.62.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 158-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 161-22 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is Monday's low crossing at 158-01. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-26.



December T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 127.315. If December resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 130.020. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. First support is November's low crossing at 127.315. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the November 20th low crossing at 54.85 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. First support is the November 20th low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 53.84.  



January heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the October-November trading range crossing at 197.02. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off the October low, the September 16th high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below November's low crossing at 184.41 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 180.42. First resistance is November's high crossing at 197.16. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 207.82. First support is November's low crossing at 184.41. Second support is October's low crossing at 180.42.  



January unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 162.89 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 152.09 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 162.89. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 170.36. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 155.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 152.09.  



January Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.579 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If January resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.187 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.464. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.579. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.305. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.187.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 96.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.93 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance last-Friday's high crossing at 98.50. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 96.96. Second support is October's low crossing at 96.89.  



The December Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 112.08 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, last-Friday's low crossing at 109.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 111.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 112.08. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.90. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.   



The December British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3345 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2939 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3345. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2939. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2792.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 1.0205 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0078 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0155. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9987. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9918. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 76.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.42. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.00. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 76.25. First support is November's low crossing at 75.03. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0912. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1491.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 1431.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1491.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1525.20. First support is November's low crossing at 1453.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1431.40.



January silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends November's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.530 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.410 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.410. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.365. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.842.



January copper was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the November 27th high crossing at 269.70 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 27th high crossing at 269.70. Second support is November's high crossing at 273.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 261.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.85.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's low, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.84 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.91. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4.   



March wheat higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.16 3/4.     



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 4.35 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday while extending the August-December trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below November's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.  



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.37 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 8.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.98 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.21. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.67 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.65.    



January soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 297.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 310.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 292.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 288.30.    



January soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 29.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 31.59. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 32.17. First support is Monday's low crossing at 30.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 29.55.   



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.85 at $67.58. 



February hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If February extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 63.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.15. First support is Monday's low crossing at 65.40. Second support August's low crossing at 63.67. 



February cattle closed up $0.43 at 124.60. 



February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 123.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 127.15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at 123.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.76.  

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $0.33-cents at $140.55. 



January Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 136.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 138.27. Second support is October's low crossing at 136.10.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.03 would temper the bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.      



March sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the July 30th high crossing at 13.25 is the next upside target. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.60 would confirm that a top has been posted.  



March cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signal sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below November's low crossing at 63.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 66.93 is the next upside target.       

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Weather a tad milder early putting pressure on ng.

Quiet with no storms in the Midwest the next week......just very cold Upper Midwest next week. 

Maybe the frozen ground will help to harvest some corn?