Wow McFarm,I wasnt able to watch when the report came out but sure glad I closed  my Loonie longs before hand.

That was quite nasty. How much are the tariffs responsible for?-cant imagine THAT much..

John

Tariffs cost hundreds of millions in a multi-trillion world economy.

The US is a voracious consumer nation.. More so, per capita, than the combination of the next 10 best.

So,  when we sneeze,  they get pneumonia.  

mcfarm

I think you know I am no fan of Trudeau and his save the planet voters

I can say I suspect his enery tax isn't helping

However, I have a big problem with Trump. Trump could have played his hand some what different, with China, but that is water under the bridge

China isn't an employee that owes their job to Trump

Trump needs to learn the world is a different place than one of his Co.'s and employes

In Canada we have serious divIsions in our country. Not political like you do but more so regional. This means we don't work together as we should. We have distinct lines of differences a person can literally see on a map of Canada. The oil patch of course doesn't like the energy tax. We have other regional problems that showed up in our recent election. Having said that we are trying to do something about energy that uses NG and smaller but more nuclear plants. I think we will come together some what but in the mean time we have to hope it all works out, over time. At least we can say we recognize the problem and are working to solve some of the problems.

Having said all this  Trump and trade with china is a long term problem that I don't see a solution, that makes it one bit better for you and me.

Our problem does have hope for improvement. I don't see any hope that china will return to buying grain and meat from our market. [your and my market] 

Guess who lost that market. We will pay for this loss of markets for a long time to come. Yes we have problems in Canada. We hope they might be a some what short time frame before efforts to improve happen.. On the other hand, you can't tell me you will shake hands with china some day and all will be forgotten. Trump has lied so many times about a deal with china I can't believe you even listen to him about china and trade. Isn't that wearing a bit thin???

Give your head a shake. China is working hard to source materials and food from any place but the USA. Trump has done us long term harm and you can't deny that, one little bit. At least we recognize we have a problems. We have a chance to improve

But trade with china and Ag markets. That is water under the bridge that will never come back.  Tks a lot. As I said just look around and see where china is investing money to source food. Do you think china will turn their back on this investment???

Really sad

Sad long term for both of us

Wayne. I think you underestimate things when it comes to China. Brazil can't supply China with the grain demand that they have. So they have no choice but to come back to the US in order to meet the demand. This also affects the Canadian ag markets.

The problem that Trump is fighting with China, is mostly in the technical arena. And manufacturing. Stolen technology. Subsidized manufacturing. Currency manipulation. But they can't escape starvation. So the ag part comes into play as well. Unless they start killing people off, we will gain from it.

Okay MarkB

Lets look at some numbers

As of Dec 13/2019 these are the latest numbers I could find

USA reports sales of 41.5 million bu to china

USA 2019 production was expected to reach 123.66 mmt of soybeans

There is a little less than 37 bu of beans/mt

So: 41.5 mil bu of beans = a little over 1 mmt of beans[I did not do the exact math as it is crystal clear the USA sold a tiny fraction of 2019 production to China

A little more than 1 mmt of beans out of production of 123.66 mmt went to china. Where will the other surplus beans go

Brazil is not the only country selling to china

Brazil has almost sold their last bean to china from  the 2018 crop

But early harvest will start by Dec 20/2019

Brazil hopes to have 20 mmt of beans harvested by end of Jan/2020

It is obvious china bought as few beans as possible until Brazil started new crop sales

With current tariffs in place Brazil beans earn processors a profit of .57 cents/bu

USA beans lose processors $2.06/bu

Now Brazil is not the only supplier of beans.  Argentina has tendered contracts to dredge the Parana river into the heartland of Argentina, allowing ocean boats to load at port far into the interior of Argentina. This will obviously decrease the transportation cost of a huge new area of bean production in Argentina

BY the way Brazil and Argentina have not suffered crop destroying droughts which is always a risk

Now look a bit further on the world map. Africa has made huge strides in more area covered in green according to maps supplied by MM

The Chinese have quietly offered investment money to ramp up agriculture production in Africa. I know Africa is not know for a stable gov't most every where but the Chinese keep a low profile and offer incentives that are hard to ignore for the production of food

Africa has the potential to grow huge amounts of crops if the gov't were more stable China would not invest unless they thought the incentives they offer would be acceptable vs the risk

So:

If you look at just these 3 countries you can see that the USA will not be needed in the near future. So far china is buying what they need to fill the holes of supply, not filled by other countries but they are on pace to have adequate food for future needs and more than they will need

If you think the USA fits into china's plans for food supply you need to do some serious research

And who caused the Chinese to spend big dollars for food supply

Who is designated an unreliable supplier of food for any number of reasons

I think you know and I think you know who left no doubt in china's thinking about their food supply problems and what they needed to do to correct the problem

If a deal was signed tomorrow china would buy token amounts of soybeans from the USA. Why would china buy huge amounts of food from the USA after seeing what Trump has done, the  wheat fiasco, Carters folly and on it goes. Who is to say what the USA might do in the future

China would be foolish to depend on the USA to supply most of their food needs

In a very short time China will not  need the USA for any food supplies