KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
N/A 1st Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. November NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 102.8; previous 102.4)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -5.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected -0.1%; previous +2.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +3.5%; previous +2.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.9%)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Chairman Jay Clayton testifies to U.S. Senate committee
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1910M)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 475M)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1014M)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales) (previous 6.10M)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 512.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -9.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 269.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1925.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -15.6%)
8:30 AM ET. November CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.7%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.0%; previous +1.8%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings
10:00 AM ET. November Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 447.096M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.856M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 229.363M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.385M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.469M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.063M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.089M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.017M)
1:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.75)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.50)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 2)
Discount Rate (previous 2.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous -0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 1.9%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 1.9%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 2.1%)
2:00 PM ET. November Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
Thursday, December 12, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 211K; previous 203K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1693000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)
8:30 AM ET. November PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 548.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 683.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 228.1K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3591B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -19B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, December 13, 2019
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous -0.5%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -3.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -3.7%)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous +0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8103.40 is the next downside target. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is November's high crossing at 8458.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8103.40. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at 7810.25.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3073.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renewed the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3154.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3073.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3048.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 161-22 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 158-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 158-01. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-26.
December T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 127.315. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 130.020. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. First support is November's low crossing at 127.315. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 61.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.52. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at 54.85.
January heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally while extending the October-November trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are poised to turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If January extends the rally off the October low, the September 16th high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 197.34. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 207.82. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 186.93. Second support is November's low crossing at 184.41.
January unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, November's high crossing at 170.36.If January renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 152.09 is the next downside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 166.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 170.36. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 155.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 152.09.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The mid overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.520 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.377. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.520. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.158. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.46 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 96.96 is the next downside target. First resistance November's high crossing at 98.50. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is November's low crossing at 96.55. Second support is October's low crossing at 96.89.
The March Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, November's low crossing at 110.61 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 112.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 112.76. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is November's low crossing at 110.61. Second support is October's low crossing at 110.15.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3425 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3009 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3233. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3425. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3078. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3009.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it is poised to renew the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1.0268 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0166 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0226. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0268. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0060. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9918.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.46. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 76.27 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 76.02. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 76.27. First support is November's low crossing at 75.08. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0929 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 0.0918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at 1431.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1490.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1490.30. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1525.20. First support is November's low crossing at 1453.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1431.40.
January silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.372 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.372. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.365. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.842.
January copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at 279.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 275.85. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 280.74. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.76. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 261.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's low, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 3.84 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 3.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 4.26.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday while extending the August-December trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below November's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.35 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.83 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.95 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.95 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.20 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.67 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.65.
January soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.80. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 310.00. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 292.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 288.30.
January soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends last-week's rally, November's high crossing at 32.17 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 31.59. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 32.17. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 30.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 29.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.85 at $66.70.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.33 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If February renews the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 63.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.33. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.78. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 65.40. Second support August's low crossing at 63.67.
February cattle closed down $0.23 at 124.75.
February cattle closed lower on Monday while extending the trading range of the past seven-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 123.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 127.15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at 123.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.13.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.03-cents at $141.53.
January Feeder cattle closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 136.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is November's low crossing at 138.27. Second support is October's low crossing at 136.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 12.84 would confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signal sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off August's low, October's high crossing at 67.13 is the next upside target. Closes below November's low crossing at 63.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thank you tallpine?
Late morning models turned much milder.....hitting natural gas.
Rains in/coming to hot/dry areas of Argentina bearish grains.