INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 10, 2019, 4:06 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, December 11, 2019 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 512.4)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -9.2%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 269.4)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.9%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 1925.7)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -15.6%)



8:30 AM ET. November CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.7%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.0%; previous +1.8%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)



8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings



10:00 AM ET. November Online Help Wanted Index



10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 447.096M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.856M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 229.363M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.385M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.469M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.063M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.9%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.089M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.017M)

                       

1:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision



                       Federal Funds Rate



                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)



                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.75)



                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.50)



                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)



                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 2)



                       Discount Rate (previous 2.25)



                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous -0.25)



                       Discount Rate-Range High



                       Discount Rate-Range Low



2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections



                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 1.9%)



                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 1.9%)



                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 2.1%)



2:00 PM ET. November Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.



Thursday, December 12, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 211K; previous 203K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -10K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1693000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)



8:30 AM ET. November PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.6%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 548.5K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 683.8K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 228.1K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3591B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -19B)

                       

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, December 13, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous -0.5%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -3.1%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous -3.7%)



10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous +0%)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Tuesday as Wall Street digested U.S-China trade developments, with a Dec. 15 deadline on Chinese goods that could lead to additional tariffs.Investors also reviewed news over an updated North American free trade pact and awaiting insights from a Federal Reserve policy meeting that got under way at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. If December renewed the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8104.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 8458.75. Second resistance is unknown.First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8168.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8104.46.   



The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renewed this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Tuesday's low would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 3048.59. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3154.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3073.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3048.59.  



The Dow closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,306.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 28,174.97. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Tuesday's lowcrossing at 27,325.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,306.94.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 2/32's at 158-23.



December T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 157-31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 161-22 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 161-22. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 157-31. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. 



December T-notes closed down 30 pts. at 128.290.



December T-notes closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 128.220 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off last-Friday's low, November's high crossing at 130.155 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 130.155. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is November's low crossing at 127.315. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 59.85. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 60.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 54.85.  



January heating oil closed higher on Tuesday as they extend the October-December trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 197.34 would confirm an upside breakout of the October-December trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 184.41 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 197.34. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 200.20. First support is November's low crossing at 184.41. Second support is October's low crossing at 180.42. 



January unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, November's high crossing at 170.36 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 152.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 170.36. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 173.52. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 155.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 152.09.



January Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.521 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.381. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.521. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.158. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends last-week's decline, November's low crossing at 96.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 98.05. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.46. First support is November's low crossing at 96.56. Second support is October's low crossing at 96.51. 



The March Euro closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 112.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is November's low crossing at 110.61. Second support is October's low crossing at 110.15. 



The March British Pound closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3425 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3010 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3244. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3425. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3010. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2864.    



The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off November's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March  extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 1.0250 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0168 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.0250. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0268. First support is November's lowcrossing at 1.0060. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9918.



The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews last-week's rally, November's high crossing at 76.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 76.02. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 76.27. First support is November's low crossing at 75.08. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01. 



The March Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0929 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Monday's low crossing 0.0918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1431.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1490.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1490.20. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1525.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1464.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1431.40.



January silver closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off the September 24th high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.372 are needed to temper the bearish outlook.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.372. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 18.210. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842.



January copper closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 280.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 275.95. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 280.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.21. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 261.00. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up 3/4-cents at 3.76 1/2. 



March corn closed fractionally higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's low, September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 3.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.65 3/4.   



March wheat closed up a 1/4-cent at 5.23.  



March wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.58 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 3/4.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 5 1/4-cents at 4.31 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday while extending the August-December trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below November's low crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.23. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 5.18. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4 confirms that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36. First support is November's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed up 3-cents at 9.00 1/4.



January soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extends last-week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.96 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.83 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.20 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.67 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.65.    



January soybean meal closed down $0.10 at 298.40. 



January soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 288.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 303.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.80. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 292.60. Second support is weekly support crossing at 288.30.    



January soybean oil closed up 9-pts. at 31.68. 



January soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Monday's low, November's high crossing at 32.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.59. Second resistance is November's high high crossing at 32.17. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 30.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 29.82.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $1.28 at $67.98. 



February hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.04 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If February renews the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 63.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 65.40. Second support August's low crossing at 63.67.  



February cattle closed down $0.18 at 124.58. 



February cattle closed lower on Tuesday while extending the trading range of the past seven-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 123.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 127.15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at 123.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.29.  

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $0.13-cents at $141.65. 



January Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 136.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is November's low crossing at 138.27. Second support is October's low crossing at 136.10.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 14.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.      



March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 12.88 would confirm that a top has been posted.  



March cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signal sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off August's low, October's high crossing at 67.13 is the next upside target. Closes below November's low crossing at 63.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.       

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 10, 2019, 10:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


NG..........

Most of the models have been turning colder. We filled the weekly gap lower from last weeks low to this weeks high. This gap and crap chart formation is usually the sign of a selling exhaustion, especially when it comes after a pretty long drop in prices. 

Only the latest weather models will tell us if that's what it was. At 2.270 right now, we are right at last weeks low. This appears to be a key area.


On Sunday Night, when we had the massive gap lower, it was NOT followed by any follow thru selling. Those were the lows and we closed Monday quite a bit higher than that, although still sharply lower than Fridays settlement.

That was a subtle signal of price strength.  See more on that discussion above. 


Regardless of this, if the models all turn much milder(the later part of the forecast looks pretty mild), none of the this discussion or the previous chart patterns will matter and we will go lower.

Grains: Bearish weather with lots of rain in South America


Coffee; Northern areas getting dry but weather has not been the price driver.