INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 5, 2018, 7:50 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, June 5, 2018   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.7%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.1%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. SEC Elder Justice Coordinating Committee (EJCC) Meeting

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 57.6; previous 56.8)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.1)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 61.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 53.6)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 60.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 53.6)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 51.3)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. May Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.8)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.5M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, June 6, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 356.1)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 242.7)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 970.7)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity (expected +0.6%; previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.8%; previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -48.6B; previous -48.96B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 208.53B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 257.48B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -1.8%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 434.512M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.62M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.431M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.534M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.629M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.634M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 93.9%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.887M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.234M)

 



 

 

Thursday, June 7, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 909.3K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1491.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 309.2K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 221K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1726000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1725B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +96B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. May Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. April Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +14.0B; previous +11.62B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

Friday, June 8, 2018   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight with technology shares poised to potentially lead the gains again on the heels of the Nasdaq’s first record finish in months. A small amount of economic data is due to be released including the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey. Meanwhile, shares of Twitter Inc. were climbing in pre-market trading on news the social media company’s stock will now be part of the S&P 500 index. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off the late-April low, March's high crossing at 7214.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6960.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7174.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7010.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6960.91.    



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends Monday's breakout to the topside of May's trading range crossing at 2741.00.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2678.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2751.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2678.06. Second support is May's low crossing at 2592.50.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-01 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 147-03 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148-18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 140-05.  



June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.156 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.125. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.156. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.105.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at 64.43. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.  



July heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 211.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 222.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 212.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 211.14. 



July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 218.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 218.96. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 228.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 210.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. 



July Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.886 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, last-October's high crossing at 3.043 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 3.000. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 3.043. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.886. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.835.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 95.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 94.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 95.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.12.



The June Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 114.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.85. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.25. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 114.66. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.10.



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3436 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, last-November's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3436. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3638. First support is May's low crossing at 1.3215. Second support is last October's low crossing at 1.3148.  



The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0236 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0068 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0236. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0357. First support is May's low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 76.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 78.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is May's low crossing at 76.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9123 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.8992 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9243 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9243. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9393. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9097. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.8992. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at 1307.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1307.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1320.20. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1263.70.



July silver was lower overnight as it extends May's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at 16.865 or below the reaction low crossing at 16.190 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending moving. First resistance is May's high crossing at 16.865. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070.  



July copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at 314.85 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 295.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 314.85. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 321.80. First support is May's low crossing at 300.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 295.95. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 3.77 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 3.90 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.98. First support is the the overnight low crossing at 3.80. Second support is March's low crossing at 3.77 1/2. 



July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 1/2 confirmed that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.00 3/4. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.54. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.66 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.00 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.86 1/4.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 19 1/4-cents at 5.21 1/2. 



July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4 opens the door for additional weakness and possible test of May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.43 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.74 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.18 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2.  



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 5.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.20. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.51. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 9.92 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 10.50 3/4. Second resistance is the late-April high crossing at 10.67 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at 9.92 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at 9.88 3/4. 



July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 367.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 387.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 387.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 368.60. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00. 



July soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 30.55 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 32.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 30.55. Second support is May's low crossing at 30.15. 



Comments
By metmike - June 5, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Mr. Tallpine!