KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 532.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 268.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2094.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +8.7%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 447.918M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.822M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.768M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.405M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 123.587M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.118M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.359M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.73M)
Thursday, December 19, 2019
8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 10.4)
Prices Paid (previous 7.8)
Employment (previous 1.5)
New Orders (previous 8.4)
Prices Received (previous 12.2)
Delivery Times (previous 8.5)
Inventories (previous -4.6)
Shipments (previous 9.8)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (previous -128.19B)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 252K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +49K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1667000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -31K
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 875.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1175.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 502.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. November Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Leading Index (previous 111.7)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. November Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.46M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.9)
Median Price (USD) (previous 270900)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3518B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -73B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 20, 2019
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)
10:00 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)
10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.8)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.6)
11:00 AM ET. December Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -5)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 25)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -3)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 15)
N/A Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8418.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8626.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8418.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8226.69.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3143.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3202.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3143.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3081.33.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 159-02. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 155-23. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.134 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.134. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 130.045. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher. If January extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 61.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 61.06. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 61.44. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.42.
January heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the October low, September's high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 203.44. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 207.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 197.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.46.
January unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 170.36 is the next upside target.Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 168.67. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 170.36. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.31. Second support is December's low crossing at 155.50.
January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.409 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If January resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.409. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.577. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.158. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rebound off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.88. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.24. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.
The March Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 112.64. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is the reaction low crossing at 111.12. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline that left a two-day island top on the daily chart.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3102 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3102. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2970.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0290 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0187 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0290. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0345. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0158. Second is November's low crossing at 1.0060.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are still possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 76.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 76.27. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second support is November's low crossing at 75.08.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1486.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at $1431.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1486.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1525.20. First support is November's low crossing at $1453.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $1431.40.
January silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.288 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.288. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.365. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.842.
January copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at 287.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 270.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 282.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 276.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 270.79.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight after a four-day rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.88 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.79 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.88 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.71. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.44 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.16 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at $5.01 3/4. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.58 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.16 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at $5.01 3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.5-cents at $4.67.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below December's low crossing at $4.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at $4.70 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at $4.23 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at $4.13 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.46 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.43 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.46 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17 3/4. Second support is November's low crossing at $5.06.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of this month's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.24 1/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.47 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.04 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.95.
January soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $310.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $293.10. Second support is December's low crossing at $292.60.
January soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, May's high crossing at 34.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 34.09. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.40.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.65 at $69.85.
February hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.07 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.04. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $76.62. First support is December's low crossing at $65.40. Second support August's low crossing at $63.67.
February cattle closed down $0.95 at $126.30.
February cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $123.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.26.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.10-cents at $145.15.
January Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends last-Friday's rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.56 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at $151.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.56. Second support is December's low crossing at $139.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed sharply lower on Tuesday as the wild action of the past three trading days suggest that this fall's rally appears to be reaching a climax. Bulls use caution as a top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 14.38 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 24.30 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.05 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 69.07 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Not much change in the weather forecasts. Good weather in Brazil, rains return to Argentina in week 2.
Still mild in the US, reducing ng demand for heating.