INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 19, 2019, 7:08 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 

  

 

Thursday, December 19, 2019

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 10.4)

 



 

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 7.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment (previous 1.5)

 



 

 

                       New Orders (previous 8.4)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 12.2)

 



 

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 8.5)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous -4.6)

 



 

 

                       Shipments (previous 9.8)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter International Transactions

 



 

 

                       Current Account (USD) (previous -128.19B)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 252K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +49K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1667000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -31K

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 875.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1175.1K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 502.7K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Leading Index (previous 111.7)

 



 

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 5.46M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.9)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD)  (previous 270900)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3518B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -73B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, December 20, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

 

                        

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%  (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.8)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.3)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.6)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. December Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous -5)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 25)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous -3)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

  N/A               Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8434.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8641.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8434.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8244.92.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3147.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3202.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3147.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3086.99.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 159-02. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is the overnight low crossing at 155-16. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.



March T-notes were lower overnight as they extend this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, last-July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.109 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.216. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.027. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher. If January extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 61.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 61.18. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 61.44. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.63.



January heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the October low, September's high crossing at 207.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 203.44. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 207.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 197.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.10.     



January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 170.36 is the next upside target.Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 169.04. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 170.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.71.  



January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.391 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.391. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.570. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.158. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.22. Second resistance is the December 6th reaction high crossing at 97.40. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 96.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.  



The March Euro was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 112.64. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. First support is the reaction low crossing at 111.12. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.    



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3109 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3109. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2986.



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0290 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0191 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0290. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0345. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0158. Second is November's low crossing at 1.0060.  



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's huge rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are still possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 76.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 76.36. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.66.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-September rally crossing at $1431.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1485.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1485.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1525.20. First support is November's low crossing at $1453.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $1431.40.



January silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the November-December trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 15.842 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.268 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.268. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.365. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.530. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.842.



January copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at 287.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 282.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 278.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.69.       



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as traders await the release of USDA's latest export sales data for confirmation of a pickup in demand. Traders are expecting this morning's export sales report a reflect a massive sale to Mexico last week. The latest trade guesses range from 67.9 million to 106.3 million bushels, which would dwarf the prior week’s sales number of 34.5 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.79 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.90 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.71. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.   



March wheat was higher overnight. Traders expect this week's export sales report to show wheat sales range from 7.3 million to 22.0 million bushels for the week ending December 12. Last week’s total came in at 18.5 million bushels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.44 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.58 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31 1/4. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.16 1/4. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 3/4-cents at $4.62 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.40 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at $4.70 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at $4.23 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at $4.13 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.46 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.43 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.46 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.26 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.19.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidate some of this month's rally. Traders expect this morning’s weekly USDA export to show soybean sales ranging from 34.9 million to 66.1 million bushels for the week ending December 12. Trader's also expect that the USDA's report to show an additional 150,000 to 350,000 metric tons of soymeal sales, plus soyoil sales between 5,000 and 25,000 MT.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.47 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.08 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96.    



January soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off this month's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $298.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $303.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $310.00. First support is December's low crossing at $293.10. Second support is December's low crossing at $292.60.    



January soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off December's low, May's high crossing at 34.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 34.09. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.47. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.50.   



Comments
By metmike - Dec. 19, 2019, 10:26 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


     metmike:  Weather models turned milder overnight. Incredibly mild weather coming up with less threat for turning cold in week 2................AO not as negative again today at the end of 2 weeks with a couple members still holding on to an extreme negative.


Grains: Continued good rains for Brazil.  A decent rain for dry Argentina Fri/ealy Sat..... then dry for a week, then good rains......

If can remove the week 2 rains in Argentina it could turn bullish.