Consumer debt
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Started by wglassfo - Dec. 19, 2019, 11:48 a.m.

You would think a turn signal bulb would last longer than 2 yrs but apparantly not

While at the dealership I browsed the new car line up

This brought to mind the increasing number of car loans being rejected. Now my banker tells me a car loan is the best security a bank can have. Even better than a home mortgage as people will keep a car vs a house. Car can sleep in and needed to go to work etc..

Now all of this surprised me, but is this an indication the consumer is taped out. Hard to imagine people with credit cards maxed out, bank loans maxed out. Now the housing market is a mixed bag according to your source. Some say home sales are good, others say not so good. I dunno who to believe

The bottom line as I see it

If consumers are mostly taped out then there goes a good share of domesstic activity. Xmas sales may be down. Big ticket items may have to wait. You get the picture

Do we slip into recession. World trade is trending down ward. All the pieces seem to fit for a recssion

Now the big question

Can the Fed support the stk market with QE

Does china buy and give a boost to exports??

If the stk market fails then I think we are headed for a recession, no doubt about it. Even if just domestic activity fails does that mean recession

I think yes and before the 2020 election

I know I have flip flopped on the recession thing and 2020 and I will probably flip flop again


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