Just 3 days until Christmas! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the year!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
No chance for a White Christmas this year in most areas!
Threat for turning colder in early January increasing yesterday but decreasing today.
Latest January and 768 hour European model forecasts at the bottom today..........consider them old news and use them today, as just something the market was trading last Thursday/Friday...........to be compared with the new news regarding updated January forecasts this week.
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Well above average temps!
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
MUCH above average in the Plains/Midwest to East Coast. Look at all the red and the magnitude of the anomalies!!!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Mostly dry in the Midwest until the end of the week.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
December 12: DROUGHT the last 2 months has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas and S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's going dormant right now.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Staring with last week below:
Monday: Deep Polar Vortex in Canada with major cold there and within striking distance of the US. How much will makes it south?
Tuesday: Growing potential for polar vortex to drop south in Canada but tremendous disagreement. Ridge/west, trough downstream couplet will determine how far south the frigid air gets and where it crosses the border into the US.
Wednesday: Much less impressive polar vortex as it stays farther north with more zonal flow undercutting it today.
Thursday: Some like it hot(mild), some like it cold. Lots of uncertainty.
Friday: Same as yesterday but slightly colder on how much cold starts pouring in late in week 2, especially northern states.
Saturday: There is going to be quite a battle between the northern and southern streams as we had into early January. Today, the southern stream looks a bit stronger in the southern half, with mild, zonal flow but the northern stream, now features even stronger, cross polar flow from Siberia, across the Arctic, potentially dumping the mother lode of cold into Canada. So any cold fronts that come from Canada and the northern stream could have some very frigid air. What often happens with a pattern like this is that the dense, very cold air at the surface manages to go pretty far south and undercut the milder flow aloft which is being modulated farther south from the southern stream. Regardless, this is 2 weeks out and things will change on where thermal boundaries set up but what looks most likely is for a HUGE temperature gradient between warm and cold between the Canadian air masses and those farther south. Move that boundary several hundred miles farther north or south and it will make a difference of many double digit degrees F in the forecast.
Sunday: Similar pattern to yesterday but some of the overnight guidance weakened the northern stream and risks for extreme cold........that are still definately there.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 06, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Discussions, starting with the oldest.
Last Wednesday: AO drops into negative territory in week 2. NAO also falling and around 0. PNA a tad negative. Nothing huge but slightly colder than the last few days for these indices.
Thursday: AO continues to drop significantly and is pretty negative by the end of 2 weeks on some members..........increasing cold risks. NAO drops too down to a tad below 0. PNA around 0.
Friday: AO is dropping even more today with NAO going below 0. This really increases cold risks but there is a wide spread and much uncertainty. PNA a tad negative.
Saturday: AO still drops solidly negative but a wide spread with some members near zero and others extremely negative. NAO is also negative. This is favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to the middle latitudes. PNA near 0.
Monday: Negative AO is still favorable for cold to drop from high latitudes to the middle latitudes late in week 2. Slightly negative NAO could help a bit too. PNA drifts to negative territory.
Tuesday: AO solidly negative and favorable for cold to drop south thru Canada and cross the US border in week 2. NAO drifting to negative also a bit constructive for cold in the northern tier. PNA slightly negative, moving towards zero.......nothing there.
Wednesday: Some members still strongly negative with AO, however the change from yesterday is that several increase the AO to above zero.............and there are not many in between this very wide spread. NAO is a bit negative...really close to zero but also with a wide spread.....some positive, some negative with an equal distribution in between. PNA goes from a tad negative to zero......nothing there.
Thursday: Around half the AO members get back up to 0 or above but still a massive spread with a few strongly negative. NAO drops slowly.......PNA increases. Lot's of uncertainty but overall, less threat for extreme cold in early January vs earlier this week.
Friday: AO a bit more negative today but extremely wide spread from a bit positive to very negative ...........means uncertainty. NAO a bit negative too so cold risks at the end of 2 weeks are elevated vs Thursday. PNA gets to slightly positive which might help too.
Saturday: AO has a very wide spread but more are positive today vs yesterday, which would be leaning to less cold but I'm not convinced that means anything. There are still a couple extremely negative and more that are decently positive, averaging near 0 at the end of 2 weeks.........even though most of them are NOT zero. When the average (all the members added up and divided by that number) is not close to what most members show(because there are 2 camps that disagree completely).........it means be skeptical. There's a good chance that one camp could be right and the other one wrong....and move in that direction vs both of them being wrong and coming together. NAO is close to 0 and PNA is slightly positive.
Sunday: AO is more positive today and the NAO a bit positive, by themselves suggesting less cold risk as do some of the models solutions(that were colder yesterday and less cold today in week 2) However, the ridge/west, trough east(downstream) couplet in Canada is still favorable for cold in the US.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Previous posts:
If the mild weather next week continues well into January, you might be right Mark.
If not..........this might be a good buying set up:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG week of 12/15/19
By metmike - Dec. 19, 2019, 7:17 p.m.
Congrats Grant!
Of course a January forecast time frame is very low skill but the NWS updated their forecast for January today and it lines up with your thoughts that some of that cold will make it into at least the northern tier of the US.
If you'd asked me earlier this week, I would have agreed with this idea based just on the forecast -AO at the end of week 2 since last Weekend. However, the AO is not so negative now at that time frame, with some even going positive but still a couple extremely, bottom of the chart negative.
Look at the incredible spread though at the end of the period!!! Great uncertainty.
Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None | Cookie ID: None
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By metmike - Dec. 20, 2019, 11:13 a.m.
Also from Thursday PM:
Just for entertainment, let's look at the just updated European model monthly- 768 hour- outlook, from Monday PM, 850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with December 30th and going out to January 19th...... every 24 hours.
The cold doesn't really spread out and remain sustained until the start of the 2nd week in January.
Take this low skill forecast model at that time frame with a grain of salt, though it does line up with the just updated long range outlook forecast philosophy used in their January forecast.
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Euro 10-15 means vs Jan 21-26 and the start of a siege that became known as snowmeggedon
Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None | Cookie ID: None
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By metmike - Dec. 21, 2019, 4:10 p.m.
For sure take this one with a grain of salt (since its beyond 2 weeks and the pattern we are dealing at that time frame could end up with near record cold or near record warmth) but the ng market really cares about January temperatures.
Changes in that outlook will determine prices the next couple of weeks.
Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
Valid: 04 Jan 2020 to 17 Jan 2020 Updated: 20 Dec 2019 | ||
Please provide comments using the online survey. | ||
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental) | |
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By metmike - Dec. 21, 2019, 8:47 p.m.
Good discussion going on in the Natural Gas thread about the increasing threat for frigid weather in January:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44302/