Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:26 a.m.

6 days until the New Decade!   Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the year!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2. 


Merry Christmas present to humanity:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44802/


Winter Weather Forecasts

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.


   

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:27 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Well above average temps......cooling to just above average temps!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:27 a.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  


MUCH above average in the Plains/Midwest to East Coast. Starting to cool but not cold late in this period.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:29 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.



Big system with moderate amounts this weekend.........with a bit of snow in the coldest air but mostly rain elsewhere.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:31 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/dailyStatic mapStatic map

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:31 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:32 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    

                                    


By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:32 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

December 12: DROUGHT the last  2 months has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas and S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's going dormant right now.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/    

                             

Drought Monitor for conus              

Drought Monitor for conus

   

                                    


By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:34 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Staring with last week below:



Last Wednesday:  Much less impressive polar vortex as it stays farther north with more zonal flow undercutting it today. 

Thursday: Some like it hot(mild), some like it  cold. Lots of uncertainty.

Friday: Same as yesterday but slightly colder on how much cold starts pouring in late in week 2, especially northern states.

Saturday: There is going to be quite a battle between the northern and southern streams as we had into early January. Today, the southern stream looks a bit stronger in the southern half, with mild, zonal flow but the northern stream, now features even stronger, cross polar flow from Siberia, across the Arctic, potentially dumping the mother lode of cold into Canada. So any cold fronts that come from Canada and the northern stream could have some very frigid air.  What often happens with a pattern like this is that the dense, very cold air at the surface manages to go pretty far south and undercut the milder flow aloft which is being modulated farther south from the southern stream. Regardless, this is 2 weeks out and things will change on where thermal boundaries set up but what looks most likely is for a HUGE temperature gradient between warm and cold between the Canadian air masses and those farther south. Move that boundary several hundred miles farther north or south and it will make a difference of many double digit degrees F in the forecast. 

Sunday: Similar pattern to yesterday but some of the overnight guidance weakened the northern stream and risks for extreme cold........that are still definitely there.

Monday: Though the flow is mostly mild and zonal, from the dominant southern stream today,  there is cross polar flow into Canada, so any cold fronts that manage to push south could have some frigid air. The last 2 days the models have been keeping that frigid air farther north in Canada, more locked up with nothing to drive it down as the Arctic Oscillation is more positive too. 

Tuesday: The cold air is really locked up to the north today. The AO is incredibly positive. The cross polar flow is no longer there either.  Cold risks are very low. Mild, zonal, west to east moving Pacific origin air masses dominate. 

Wednesday:  Still cross polar flow into Alaska(which will be frigid) and Canada. How much of that will make it south with the fairly zonal, mild flow in the US(but with weak troughing)?  It will be very difficult to keep a massive very cold air mass in Canada from tracking south of the US border, despite what the models think right now. The question for me is more of a, how much of that cold spurts south and where?

Thursday: Slightly deeper trough in the Rockies, where the best chance for cold to get in from a bitter cold Canada appears to be. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 10, 2020 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:35 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

                             

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

      

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:35 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:38 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Discussions, starting with the oldest.


Last Wednesday: Some members still strongly negative with AO, however the change from yesterday is that several increase the AO to above zero.............and there are not many in between this very wide spread.  NAO is a bit negative...really close to zero but also with a wide spread.....some positive, some negative with an equal distribution in between. PNA goes from a tad negative to zero......nothing there.

Thursday: Around half the AO members get back up to 0 or above but still a massive spread with a few strongly negative. NAO drops slowly.......PNA increases. Lot's of uncertainty but overall, less threat for extreme cold in early January vs earlier this week.

Friday: AO a bit more negative today but extremely wide spread from a bit positive to very negative ...........means uncertainty.  NAO a bit negative too so cold risks at the end of 2 weeks are elevated vs Thursday. PNA gets to slightly positive which might help too.

Saturday: AO has a very wide spread but more are positive today vs yesterday, which would be leaning to less cold but I'm not convinced that means anything. There are still a couple extremely negative and more that are decently positive, averaging near 0 at the  end of 2 weeks.........even though most of them are NOT zero.  When the average  (all the members added up and divided by that number) is not close to what most members show(because there are 2 camps that disagree completely).........it means be skeptical.  There's a good chance that one camp could be right and the other one wrong....and move in that direction vs both of them being wrong and coming together.  NAO is close to 0 and PNA is slightly positive.  

Sunday: AO is more positive today and the NAO a bit positive, by themselves suggesting less cold risk as do some of the models solutions(that were colder yesterday and less cold today in week 2) However, the ridge/west, trough east(downstream) couplet in Canada is still favorable for cold in the US.

Monday: AO is MUCH more positive today, with most members pretty positive. NAO is also a bit more positive. This has really reduced the threat of turning much colder in January. It suggests that the frigid air will stay locked up to our north in Canada. PNA near 0.

Tuesday: Holy Cow! The AO soars higher in week 2 to the top of the chart and near record levels(drops a bit late but very positive). NAO is positive in week 2. Very low risk for cold to travel from high to mid latitudes. PNA near zero.

Wednesday: AO still gets extremely positive in the next week but tops out and potentially starts plunging lower at the end of 2 weeks(low confidence time frame). If that happens in 2 weeks, the bitter cold in Canada at the time will have a chance to move southward to lower latitudes(USA). NAO is positive but also dropping. PNA near zero. Indications of potential for much colder in parts of the US at the end of the period.

Thursday: AO spikes extremely high then plunges back to near 0 during week 2...........introducing a better chance for frigid temps that will be in Canada at the time of pushing farther south. NAO and PNA near 0, a tad positive.


By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:38 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

                                    

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:39 a.m.
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Previous posts:

                By metmike - Dec. 23, 2019, 12:57 p.m.            

            

Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf

·

Alaska will be the planet's freezer starting later this week and actually could be even colder into next week. Images for this Friday with lows as low as -50F (30-50F degrees below normal) Record low in AK is -80 set back in 1971.

ImageImage

                                    


                                    


            

                

                                                                                    

                Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None                | Cookie ID: None            

                                                                                                                  

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

            

                0 likes            

                            

                By metmike - Dec. 24, 2019, 12:42 p.m.            

            

                                Like                Reply            

                            

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

Big fight in the pattern  CFSV2 is bringing the cold  week 2 and 3  Many models not,  NE Pac warm pool ala 13-14,14-15,18-19 a question of  when, not if

ImageImage

                                    


            

        ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

            

@BigJoeBastardi

Anyone remember this, from 45 years ago? If its cold again in45 years,  they can recycle this, On second thought it belonged in the trash the same way as the  Climate emergency  nonsense does now

Image

                                    


          +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

       


@RyanMaue


January 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast.  Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output.   Canada trends much colder.  Not too surprising.

Image

                                    


By metmike - Dec. 26, 2019, 9:42 a.m.
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Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg·

Pretty crazy stuff. For a lot of places, warmer this year on Christmas Day than it was on Thanksgiving...and Halloween...and Mother's Day

Image