6 days until the New Decade! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the year!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Merry Christmas present to humanity: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44802/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Well above average temps......cooling to just above average temps!
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
MUCH above average in the Plains/Midwest to East Coast. Starting to cool but not cold late in this period.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Big system with moderate amounts this weekend.........with a bit of snow in the coldest air but mostly rain elsewhere.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
December 12: DROUGHT the last 2 months has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas and S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's going dormant right now.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Staring with last week below:
Last Wednesday: Much less impressive polar vortex as it stays farther north with more zonal flow undercutting it today.
Thursday: Some like it hot(mild), some like it cold. Lots of uncertainty.
Friday: Same as yesterday but slightly colder on how much cold starts pouring in late in week 2, especially northern states.
Saturday: There is going to be quite a battle between the northern and southern streams as we had into early January. Today, the southern stream looks a bit stronger in the southern half, with mild, zonal flow but the northern stream, now features even stronger, cross polar flow from Siberia, across the Arctic, potentially dumping the mother lode of cold into Canada. So any cold fronts that come from Canada and the northern stream could have some very frigid air. What often happens with a pattern like this is that the dense, very cold air at the surface manages to go pretty far south and undercut the milder flow aloft which is being modulated farther south from the southern stream. Regardless, this is 2 weeks out and things will change on where thermal boundaries set up but what looks most likely is for a HUGE temperature gradient between warm and cold between the Canadian air masses and those farther south. Move that boundary several hundred miles farther north or south and it will make a difference of many double digit degrees F in the forecast.
Sunday: Similar pattern to yesterday but some of the overnight guidance weakened the northern stream and risks for extreme cold........that are still definitely there.
Monday: Though the flow is mostly mild and zonal, from the dominant southern stream today, there is cross polar flow into Canada, so any cold fronts that manage to push south could have some frigid air. The last 2 days the models have been keeping that frigid air farther north in Canada, more locked up with nothing to drive it down as the Arctic Oscillation is more positive too.
Tuesday: The cold air is really locked up to the north today. The AO is incredibly positive. The cross polar flow is no longer there either. Cold risks are very low. Mild, zonal, west to east moving Pacific origin air masses dominate.
Wednesday: Still cross polar flow into Alaska(which will be frigid) and Canada. How much of that will make it south with the fairly zonal, mild flow in the US(but with weak troughing)? It will be very difficult to keep a massive very cold air mass in Canada from tracking south of the US border, despite what the models think right now. The question for me is more of a, how much of that cold spurts south and where?
Thursday: Slightly deeper trough in the Rockies, where the best chance for cold to get in from a bitter cold Canada appears to be.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 10, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Discussions, starting with the oldest.
Last Wednesday: Some members still strongly negative with AO, however the change from yesterday is that several increase the AO to above zero.............and there are not many in between this very wide spread. NAO is a bit negative...really close to zero but also with a wide spread.....some positive, some negative with an equal distribution in between. PNA goes from a tad negative to zero......nothing there.
Thursday: Around half the AO members get back up to 0 or above but still a massive spread with a few strongly negative. NAO drops slowly.......PNA increases. Lot's of uncertainty but overall, less threat for extreme cold in early January vs earlier this week.
Friday: AO a bit more negative today but extremely wide spread from a bit positive to very negative ...........means uncertainty. NAO a bit negative too so cold risks at the end of 2 weeks are elevated vs Thursday. PNA gets to slightly positive which might help too.
Saturday: AO has a very wide spread but more are positive today vs yesterday, which would be leaning to less cold but I'm not convinced that means anything. There are still a couple extremely negative and more that are decently positive, averaging near 0 at the end of 2 weeks.........even though most of them are NOT zero. When the average (all the members added up and divided by that number) is not close to what most members show(because there are 2 camps that disagree completely).........it means be skeptical. There's a good chance that one camp could be right and the other one wrong....and move in that direction vs both of them being wrong and coming together. NAO is close to 0 and PNA is slightly positive.
Sunday: AO is more positive today and the NAO a bit positive, by themselves suggesting less cold risk as do some of the models solutions(that were colder yesterday and less cold today in week 2) However, the ridge/west, trough east(downstream) couplet in Canada is still favorable for cold in the US.
Monday: AO is MUCH more positive today, with most members pretty positive. NAO is also a bit more positive. This has really reduced the threat of turning much colder in January. It suggests that the frigid air will stay locked up to our north in Canada. PNA near 0.
Tuesday: Holy Cow! The AO soars higher in week 2 to the top of the chart and near record levels(drops a bit late but very positive). NAO is positive in week 2. Very low risk for cold to travel from high to mid latitudes. PNA near zero.
Wednesday: AO still gets extremely positive in the next week but tops out and potentially starts plunging lower at the end of 2 weeks(low confidence time frame). If that happens in 2 weeks, the bitter cold in Canada at the time will have a chance to move southward to lower latitudes(USA). NAO is positive but also dropping. PNA near zero. Indications of potential for much colder in parts of the US at the end of the period.
Thursday: AO spikes extremely high then plunges back to near 0 during week 2...........introducing a better chance for frigid temps that will be in Canada at the time of pushing farther south. NAO and PNA near 0, a tad positive.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Previous posts:
By metmike - Dec. 23, 2019, 12:57 p.m.
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Alaska will be the planet's freezer starting later this week and actually could be even colder into next week. Images for this Friday with lows as low as -50F (30-50F degrees below normal) Record low in AK is -80 set back in 1971.
Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None | Cookie ID: None
Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday
0 likes
By metmike - Dec. 24, 2019, 12:42 p.m.
Big fight in the pattern CFSV2 is bringing the cold week 2 and 3 Many models not, NE Pac warm pool ala 13-14,14-15,18-19 a question of when, not if
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Anyone remember this, from 45 years ago? If its cold again in45 years, they can recycle this, On second thought it belonged in the trash the same way as the Climate emergency nonsense does now
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January 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output. Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising.