INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 31, 2019, 7:35 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, December 31, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -3.4%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. October U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous 0.0%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET: December Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 125.5)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 97.9)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 166.9)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -7.9M)\

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in quiet overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8564.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8843.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8712.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8564.55.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3182.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3253.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3221.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3182.69.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-27. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is Monday's low crossing at 155-10. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.



March T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.231 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.231. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.034. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher. If February extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 63.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 62.34. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 63.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.93.



February heating oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's loss, which marked a key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off the October low, last-May's high crossing at 214.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 207.82. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 203.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.01.     



February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, last-April's high crossing at 177.64 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 176.56. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 177.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.61.  



February Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 16th high crossing at 2.351 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.283. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.167. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it resumes the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.92 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the December 6th high crossing at 97.40. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the overnight low crossing at 96.11. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.  



The March Euro was higher overnight as it renews the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, October's high crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.    



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3151 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406. Second resistance the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0293. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0256.  



The March Canadian Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, July's high crossing at 77.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.85. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 77.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.03.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at $1532.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1487.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1532.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1549.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1499.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1487.60.



March silver was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 25th high crossing at $18.495 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.249 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $18.200. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at $18.495. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.580. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.249. 



March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $281.89. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.01.       



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it extends a three-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above Monday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/2. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $4.80 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.85. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.66 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.51. 



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.55. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidate some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.25 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.25 3/4.    



March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $305.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.    



March soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 35.52. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.12.   



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $1.23 at $71.80. 



February hogs closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.24 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.24. is December's low crossing at $65.40.   



February cattle closed down $0.28 at $126.43. 



February cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.49. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.30-cents at $144.50. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Thursday's rally, December's high crossing at $146.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.29 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at $146.93. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.29. Second support is December's low crossing at $140.55.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.71 is the next downside target.



March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.       



March sugar posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Monday as it continues to form a potential symmetrical triangle. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.33 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target.     



March cotton closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 31, 2019, 12:09 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine........Happy New Year!

No long lasting cold in the East is bearish for ng but the price is low and there is some frigid air farther west that might penetrate farther than models predict.

Drying in S.Brazil still looks a bit bullish for weather/beans with rains coming after 10 days.