INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Jan. 2, 2020, 6:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, January 2, 2020   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 222K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1719000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 52.6)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. December Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 50.3)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading and poised to extend 2019's year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8593.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8843.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8593.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8380.22.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are  overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3190.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3253.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3190.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3127.11.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 155-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-25. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is the overnight low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.



March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-July's low crossing at 127.090 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.201 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.201. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.024. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.However, the low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 63.87 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 62.34. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 63.87. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.96.



February heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off the October low, last-May's high crossing at 214.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 207.82. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.55.     



February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's losses. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, last-April's high crossing at 177.64 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 176.56. Second resistance is last-April's high crossing at 177.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 164.49.  



February Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The mid-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 16th high crossing at 2.351 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 2.468. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.151. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.88 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 96.02. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.  



The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, last-August's high crossing at 114.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 112.91. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.    



The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3028 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0262 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. f March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0406. Second resistance the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0301. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0262.  



The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 77.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 77.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.12.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0934. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at $1532.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1489.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1532.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1549.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1503.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1489.40.



March silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four trading sessions. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 25th high crossing at $18.495 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.273 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $18.200. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at $18.495. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.646. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.273. 



March copper was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $271.70.       



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it extends a three-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/2. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.05 1/2-cents at $4.86.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.53 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.86 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $4.88 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.68 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.53 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was higher Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.45 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.43 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.26.    



March soybean meal was higher on Tuesday. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at $307.90 would renew the rally off December's low. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.    



March soybean oil was lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 35.52. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.10.   



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.38 at $71.42. 



February hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.50 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.50. is December's low crossing at $65.40.   



February cattle closed down $0.50 at $125.92. 



February cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.28-cents at $144.23. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.40 would temper the friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off November's low, December's high crossing at $146.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $146.93. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $140.55.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee posted a key reversal down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.76 is the next downside target.



March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.       



March sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it continues to form a potential symmetrical triangle. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 20-day moving average crossing at 13.37 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June high crossing at 13.78 is the next upside target.     



March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 2, 2020, 2:09 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.........Happy New Decade to you!


Mild near term temps hitting ng today but my forecast is turning colder in week 2!


Dry in Argentina/S.Brazil the next week but big rains coming in week 2 to S.Brazil.