look at a 10 yr chart of xau or oil. it looks like the commodity arena is bottoming and going to run back up over the next year or so.
the only question is whether we get up to the oil highs, stop short, or whether we set new highs.
if you look at a 30 year chart of the xau, it has always been stuck in the trading range. up to 150 or more, then back down to 75 or so.
i think we are heading back up to the higher part of that range. the only issue is whether to sell when it gets close to its old highs, or hold and hope it goes higher.
My targets are still $245 WTIC and $60 Silver. My target date has always been 2020. I thought we would have a multi year rally up to these targets but maybe a melt up and back down.
With recent developments in Iran, one would be reasonably sure Iran will retaliate
Would oil be a target
Let's not forget the Saudi refinery episode
Or oil tanker movement
Would Iran consider higher prices for oil and pump gas, one of many retaliatory measures
Or does Iran want to blow things up and kill people
Word has already gone out for foreign workers in Iraq to leave as soon as possible for their own safety
This would have to have a slow down effect on production one would think
So: Iranian retaliation must be considered a very good possibility
Is it bombs and killing people
Or: Forcing the price of oil higher
Or: maybe some combination of both