KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 478.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 250.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1859.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 478.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 250.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1859.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)
8:15 AM ET. December ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +15000; previous +67000)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 429.896M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -11.463M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 242.472M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.212M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.72M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.776M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.922M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.39M)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +15.5B; previous +18.91B)
N/A World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report
Thursday, January 9, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 222K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1728000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +5K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 540K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 332K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 333.3K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3192B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -58B)
12:00 PM ET. December Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 10, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +160K; previous +266K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.29)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.25%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.1%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +12K)
Private Payroll (previous +254K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8670.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 8907.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8670.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8437.82.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3208.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3259.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3208.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3141.52.
The Dow closed lower on Tuesday after favorable economic data was tempered by concerns about the possibility of war in the Middle East. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,384.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 28,782.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,384.40. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 27,952.13.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 14/32's at 157-13.
March T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the December 11th high crossing at 159-02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 156-25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 11th high crossing at 159-02. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes closed down 30-pts. At 129.050.
March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.015. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 130.045 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.209 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 129.210. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 130.045. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 65.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 64.72. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 65.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.42.
February heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, last-May's high crossing at 214.32 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 210.30. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.21.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 179.43. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 165.45.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.235 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.235. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.062. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 94.96.
The March Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.71 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off November's low, last-August's high crossing at 114.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 24th low crossing at 111.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0286 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0420. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0326. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0286.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.31.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last-week's rally but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 0.0934 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is last-Friday's low crossing 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1503.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1590.90. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 10-day morning crossing at $1529.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average at $1503.20.
March silver closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.483 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 18.550. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.979. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.483.
March copper closed higher on Tuesday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.39. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.47 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 262.05.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.00 1/4-cents at 3.84 1/2.
March corn closed fractionally lower on Tuesday as it extends a four-week old trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.84 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00 in the near-future. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.82 3/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat closed down $0.00 1/4-cent at $5.50 3/4.
March wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.44 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.44 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.29 3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $4.75.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.45 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01 1/4-cents at $5.46 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.37 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $5.43 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $9.44.
March soybeans closed fractionally lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $9.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $301.60.
March soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday while extending December's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 18th high crossing at $307.90 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the December 18th high crossing at $307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil closed up 17-pts. at 34.69.
March soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is 20-day moving average crossing at 33.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.34.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.60 at $69.23.
February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's limit-down close but remain below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.80 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $74.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $67.55. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.
February cattle closed down $0.75 at $126.53.
February cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish, which signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.23-cents at $145.13.
March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's rally, November's high crossing at $147.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $141.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $146.93. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. First support is December's low crossing at $140.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.96 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 13.46 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 14.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.99 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 70.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.