KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 10, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +160K; previous +266K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.29)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.25%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.1%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +12K)
Private Payroll (previous +254K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday following yesterday's days huge key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8728.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9022.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8728.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8472.38.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday confirming yesterday's huge key reversal up as it extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3220.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3274.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3220.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3150.73.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends last-year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,478.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 28,988.01. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,478.69. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 28,024.76.
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March T-bonds closed up 17/32's at 156-29.
March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Despite today's rebound, March remains below support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 156-28 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Wednesday's decline, January's low crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 160-12 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes closed up 40-pts. At 128.285.
March T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's huge key reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.205 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 130.175 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed lower on Thursday following yesterday's huge key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.56 would open the door for a possible test of the November 29th low crossing at 55.01 later this winter. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.57 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 65.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 68.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.56. Second support is the November 29th low crossing at 55.01.
February heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's huge key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.36 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 211.95. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.29. Second support is December's low crossing at 186.68.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 165.60 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 156.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 180.11. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the December 11th low crossing at 161.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 156.22.
February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.225 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.225. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.062. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.15 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.65 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.65. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.02.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.70 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the December 20th low crossing at 111.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.09 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 20th low crossing at 111.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 1.2940 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0297 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target.First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0420. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0297. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0224.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.95.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal down and tested support marked by December's low crossing at 0.0916. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, last-April's low crossing at 0.0913 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is December's low crossing 0.0916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0913.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed lower on Thursday following Wednesday's huge key reversal down signaling that a short-term top appears to have been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1541.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 10-day morning crossing at $1541.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average at $1512.20.
March silver closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.620 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.620. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.409.
March copper closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.65. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.91. Second support is December's low crossing at 262.05.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down 0.01-cent at 3.83 1/4.
March corn closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is today's low crossing at $3.82 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat closed up $0.10-cents at $5.62 3/4.
March wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.10 1/4-cents at $4.90 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it posted its highest close since last-July. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.47 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $5.52.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.42 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.42 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.31 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.04 3/4-cents at $9.42 1/2.
March soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.39 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $9.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.39 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $300.50.
March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday while extending December's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 18th high crossing at $307.90 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the December 18th high crossing at $307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil closed up 10-pts. at 34.66.
March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 35.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is 20-day moving average crossing at 34.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $2.00 at $67.03.
February hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is today's low crossing at $66.47. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.
February cattle closed up $0.38 at $126.73.
February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.03-cents at $146.55.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at $147.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $141.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $147.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 April-September decline crossing at $149.81. First support is January's low crossing at $141.33. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 11.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.89 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.45 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 23.80 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-April's high crossing at 14.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.04 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 74.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Rains on the way over the next week in dry areas of Argentina and S. Brazil are bearish for beans.
But potential extreme cold is bullish for wheat. Temps may drop below the Winter Kill threshold and do damage to the dormant crop.
That same extreme cold is bullish for natural gas which is struggling to go higher because of huge supplies and bearish fundamentals and half of Winter having passed.