From Natural Gas Intelligence
July Natural Gas Called A Nickel Higher Ahead of EIA Storage Report
8:57 AM
July natural gas prices were set to open 5.6 cents higher at $2.952 as the market anticipates another sub-100 Bcf storage injection once the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly report later this morning for the week ending June 1
+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (06/01/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 06/01/18 | 05/25/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 351 | 328 | 23 | 23 | 452 | -22.3 | 460 | -23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 341 | 315 | 26 | 26 | 610 | -44.1 | 505 | -32.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 121 | 113 | 8 | 8 | 171 | -29.2 | 145 | -16.6 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 231 | 221 | 10 | 10 | 267 | -13.5 | 279 | -17.2 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 773 | 748 | 25 | 25 | 1,116 | -30.7 | 940 | -17.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 245 | 235 | 10 | 10 | 345 | -29.0 | 284 | -13.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 528 | 514 | 14 | 14 | 771 | -31.5 | 656 | -19.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 1,817 | 1,725 | 92 | 92 | 2,616 | -30.5 | 2,329 | -22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Natural gas hit a high last week and Monday, just shy of $3 and below the Jan 31 spike high and went up there again earlier today. We need hot weather to increase in order to break out to the upside.
Seasonals turn negative here.
The bullish EIA reports vs expectations recently have been a big reason for price strength, along with incredibly high CDD's from the heat. Today's EIA report was not so bullish.
Injections will be low this Summer if the heat is widespread to the East Coast. Storage is pretty low here, so injections need to be above historical averages for the next 6 months to catch up.
The chart below is July Natural Gas for the past year:
https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/natural-gas.aspx?timeframe=1y
From NGI:
"EIA Natural Gas Storage Report Hits Target; Nymex July Pares Gains"