Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:14 a.m.

Happy New Decade!   Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the new decade!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.


Pattern change to less mild and possibly very cold later in January into early February!  Much uncertainty except that the near record warmth in the East is definitely coming to an end!

High confidence of Warmer West much colder East.


NEW: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


Winter Weather Forecasts

Light/moderate Snow in the Great Lakes/Northeast.  Big snows N.Rockies/Northwest US this week before the big pattern change! 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:16 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Another surge of warmth Eastern half before this period.  Cold deepens in the West to far N.Plains to Upper Midwest then east.

Incredible near 90 degree temp contrast from far Southeast to N.Plains at times this week!!

Late in the period the frigid air is bodily on the move, south and east  but moderates!!!!

This will define the new week 2 pattern..........much warmer West and much colder East.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:19 a.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  


Another big surge of warmth before this period.  Cold/blue anomalies WILL surge south and east as the reds shrink and shift southeast and be replaced by modest blues.....later this week.

This is going to define the new, week 2 pattern........warmer West, colder East.


 



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:21 a.m.
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Surface Weather features day 3-7:


 Major storms and action battering the far Northwest. ...........going to end with a new pattern late in this period!!

A powerful blast of frigid air move be shifting southeast later this week.............with the mother load of cold sweeping east....but moderating.  This will kick off the start of the new weather pattern.......much colder East, much warmer West in week 2.

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:21 a.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:22 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/dailyStatic mapStatic map

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:23 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:23 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:24 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

January 9: DROUGHT the last  3 months has really shrunk. It's GONE in the Southeast!  One area to watch is sw Kansas and the S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's  dormant right now.

Precip coming up will be too far east to help that area.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/    

                                                   

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        

  • Drought Monitor for conus

      


                                    


            

                

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:31 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Starting with last week below:



Last Monday: Similar to yesterday but slightly more amplified. Stronger ridge Northeast Pacific, Deeper trough and slightly farther west in the West to Rockies to Plains. Slightly stronger upper level ridge in the Southeast.  Arctic air in Canada will come south, favoring the West and northern border states but the stout ridge in the Southeast will provide resistance to the cold and warmth in that region. How far southeast will the frigid air get and how long will it last? Other models have just a brief shot of cold today for the high population centers, especially in the East and Southeast(not much).

Tuesday: Same forecast philosophy as Monday and same amplified pattern but not quite as amplified as yesterday. Tons of precip with massive snow piling up in the colder air.  Big Winter storms possible between the contrasting air masses.

Wednesday:  Still an amplified pattern but on this run for this model, not quite as much as the previous 2 days. Ridge Northeast Pacific, downstream deep trough West to Rockies to possibly into the Plains. Huge ridge far Southeast US. See the detailed analysis for today, 2 pages down for the GFS ensembles.

Thursday: Blocking Ridge in the Southeast weakens.........everything shifts farther east, including the storm track and cold air .........making it COLDER at the end of week 2.

Saturday: Like the previous 2 days but MUCH more so today, this model gets rid of the blocking  Southeast ridge. As a result, the frigid temperatures in the West come gushing bodily eastward with a potential pattern change that spells an end to the amazing warmth at times in the Southeast to Midwest in recent weeks. Other models do not agree with this.

Sunday: The Canadian model looks MUCH colder than the other models here. Huge uncertainty.

Monday: The Canadian model continues MUCH colder than the other models. It has a ridge in the West/trough Midwest to East couplet that is almost the opposite of what some models show. It emphasizes the northern stream and takes it farther east because of the ridge at higher latitudes is sending down so much energy. The other models emphasize much more southern stream which is repelling/deflecting  the northern stream

Tuesday: Canadian model continues to be the coldest by far with a ridge/west, trough east couplet vs almost the opposite on the GFS ensemble.......see below.

Wednesday: 12z run. WOW! Much more amplified with new cold pattern ridge/West, trough/Midwest to East couplet.

Thursday: The Canadian model continues to be much colder than the other models. In addition, it features cross polar flow from Siberia, across the Arctic into Canada, so the source region for cold fronts that come from Canada is potentially frigid. The southern stream will likely be battling with the northern stream over US terrain.......sending milder air from west to east at times. This is the recipe for a huge temperature disparity.

Friday: GFS has been joining the Canadian party with colder solutions.........European model not nearly as cold. Same theme. The previous trough/west, ridge east is replaced with a ridge/west, trough/east couplet that warms the west and chills the east..........on the Canadian model. Cross polar flow at high latitudes will drain frigid air into Canada, so cold fronts could pack some bone chilling punch. There is alot of uncertainty on how much amplification the new pattern will attain.

Saturday: At a chess tournament today.

Sunday: forecast philosophy progressing nicely....pattern change to much colder is getting closer with each passing day. See GFS ensemble average below for Sunday’s details as well as indices page.

Monday: Continuation of a complete change/reversal of the pattern and amplification of it with time. Now we have pretty good agreement with members of the Canadian model, which has been the coldest model...........but leading the way, as other models follow.  Big ridge/west to north of Alaska, trough downstream in Canada........deeply into the Midwest/East, is textbook cold air delivery, flushing air from Canada that could be frigid from cross polar flow(from Siberia)...........deeply in to the US.   High confidence that some form of this pattern will become more and more engaged as it gets progressively colder in the East/Southeast.  The question is how extreme will it get?  A greater amplification could give us another visit from the Polar Vortex.......yes, this is the right pattern for that. One should not that the shifts predicted in this change have been slower to materialize than predicted by models even though they have, otherwise been consistently insisting its coming

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 28, 2020 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:34 a.m.
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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:37 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


Last Monday: Ridge in the Southeast is stronger and farther west(warmer) today vs Sunday.

Tuesday: Ridge East, trough West.......heavy precip in the middle, huge snows in the colder air. Big Winter storms possible between the contrasting air masses.

Wednesday:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44715/ 

There is frigid air coming south from Canada but the entry point is too far west to be bullish, since the high population centers and highest heating demand for ng is in the Midwest/East/South.

We have a solidly -PNA pattern thru the period which strongly favors the cold to continue in the West and to  have a tough time staying in the East, other than brief intrusions. Also a +AO(that does drop late) and +NAO that drops close to 0 late.  We need those last 2 indices to be, at least close to 0 if not negative to give the frigid air a chance to last in the Midwest/East.

The trend  for them to move in that direction at the end of 2 weeks and the AO has a couple solutions going negative and  with the massive upper level ridge in the Northeast Pacific being the main feature and forecast to strengthen and build northward, likely connecting/extending to Siberia..........establishing a cross polar flow into Canada and a down steam trough in the mid latitudes.........which will be ideal for the most frigid air on the planet to dump south via the Siberian Express.

The entry point is in the West with a stout upper level ridge in the East trying to hold it back. Seems to me that based on the past, the ridge in the East often loses the battle in the end to the more powerful northern stream and....it's going to be difficult to hold back this massive amount of bone chilling air. 

Look at the magnitude of the upper level height anomalies below at 2 weeks. The building positives/west and negative/downstream couplet, with 100% certainty, anything close to this will drive Arctic/Polar air south.  This is  the most important dynamic going on. Almost as important is the modest positive anomaly in the East. This is what will be holding back the lions share of cold and making spurts of the cold eastward brief...if it weakens, the frigid air will come in bodily/eastward and stay for longer and be very bullish. 

So while the forecast is bearish with regards to HDD's in the Midwest/East because of the modest ridging, we are a stone's throw (on a global scale) at 2 weeks of it becoming very bullish.

Do note that this pattern will feature some MAJOR Winter Storms and  feet of snow in the cold sector........with the contrast in temps and jet stream providing tons of energy, along with the deep upper level trough and moisture flowing in from the ridging to the East. 

The heaviest snows will be in the West but possibly in the Upper Lakes to far Northeast where the southern edge of the cold/boundary has a chance to settle south and be overrun by moisture. 

This is also the ideal set up for ice/freezing rain, with the more dense, bitter cold at the surface, pushing southeast with north winds at lower levels and  undercutting the warmer/moist air aloft, where a southerly(south to north) component to air movement exists.

Thursday: Similar to yesterday. Where will the amplified Ridge/Trough/Ridge large scale features set up? Amplified flow pattern means some extreme weather.

Saturday: This model holds on to the same pattern thru 2 weeks on this solution. Massive Northeast Pacific ridge.........Deep trough/low Northwest US, big ridge Southeast US. With high confidence the WestNW will be very cold. Question is, how far east to take that cold?  The Southeast will be VERY mild well into week 2 but that could change if the Canadian model has it right.

Sunday: The GFS Ensembles still hold on to the same pattern at 2 weeks, even though it allows for temporary cold shots to sweep east. 

Monday: Same pattern, different day and again, much different and milder than the Canadian model at 2 weeks. 

Tuesday: Same as recently. Ridge Northeast Pacific. Trough(not as deep today) Pac Northwest, Ridge along the East Coast. Not favorable for lasting cold in the East.

Thursday: The long lived pattern is finally show strong signs of weakening, if not ending.  The biggest chance is the extreme negative anomaly in the Northwest is going bye bye......which might allow cold air masses to the east to penetrate deeper. However, the ridge in the East from the southern stream does not want to give up. So there will be a huge battle between the northern and southern streams.  Cross polar flow here means the source region for cold coming from Canada may have air from Siberia.

Friday:  Big positive anomaly in Alaska connects downsteam with a negative anomaly shifting east, into the middle of the country(with the negative in the NWest filling in). Still a positive anomaly along the East Coast but this will weaken and turn negative........possibly. The biggest deal is the cross polar flow from the ridge in Alaska. Air masses from Siberia will be dumped into Canada, then be transported south, feeding into the downstream trough in the US.

Sunday: Progressing as expected. Powerful positive anomaly in Alaska and downstream negative anomaly in the Northeast is textbook couplet for cold air delivery from Canada south into the US. The source region of that cold could be Siberia with potential cross polar flow.......meaning frigid!

Monday: Classical ridge/West, trough southeast couplet is amplifying with time. If this verifies even close, temperatures will be below normal in the Midwest/East with high confidence. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:43 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Discussions, starting with the oldest.


Last Thursday: Very positive AO regime crashes lower in week 2. NAO drops then also making deeper cold air intrusions more likely at the end of week 2. PNA stays solidly negative which will try to oppose this and greatly favors the coldest air in the West. 

Saturday: Very positive AO........but it plunges late in week 2. +NAO but that too drops to near 0 late in week 2.  Solidly -PNA but that is increasing late. Recipe for very mild temps in the Southeast and cold in the West until late..........when a pattern change featuring the cold air surging east could happen.

Sunday:  Same as yesterday. +++AO with +NAO and --PNA(very mild in the Southeast half) but they all move towards 0 later in week 2..............which has been the solution for numerous days now.

Monday: Similar to recent days, +++AO, +NAO and --PNA make it almost impossible for cold air surges to the SouthEast to remain for very long(and they will moderate greatly). Once again, the indices weaken in magnitude at the end of the period(not as much as yesterday). This has not resulted in it getting closer via progression of days, so is taken with a grain of salt. The Canadian model stands alone to contrast this with its COLDER week forecast with a sustainable shift in the pattern/cold.

Tuesday: Same extremes and late week 2 moves back towards 0. A little more decisive with the late week 2 changes in the cold direction today.

  Thursday: The extreme +++AO that has been a noted feature for a couple of weeks, plunges towards 0 late in the period. This has been predicted forever but never gets closer. Todays solution looks more convincing and the models(not the European models) are moving in that direction. NAO drops a bit. Record --PNA is finally increasing towards 0 but still a bit negative.  Cold threats are increasing but not if you believe the European model.

Friday: Ding Dong the amazing +++AO may be dead. At least the plunge lower in week 2 today looks the most convincing of any solutions recently. The potential new pattern will allow frigid air from high latitudes to travel to mid latitudes. However, the NAO tenaciously holds on to slightly positive thru the period, which potentially could provide a bit of resistence to the cold penetating deeply southeast. The incredible --PNA will also die as it moves closer to 0 but is still negative. 

Saturday: AO continues to drop hard in week 2 with PNA coming up for record --PNA to near 0. This increases cold risks enormously.  However, the NAO stays positive which will try to repel the cold in the South/Southeast.


Sunday: the biggest change today is that record —PNA rises all the way to positive. Wow. Warmer west colder east....very high confidence.                            

Monday: Complete metamorphose going on in the atmosphere, reflected by these indices reversing.         AO goes from the recent +++AO back down to near zero.........several are negative. NAO drops from positive to near zero.........several are negative.  PNA goes from recent, amazing ++PNA up to near zero. This means that the recent cold in the west will shift east and penetrate deeply as the West gradually warms up very late in the period. The magnitude of the new pattern will determine how anomalous/extreme it becomes. We have a few more solutions today that are getting more extreme. One should not that the shifts predicted in this change have been slower to materialize than predicted by models even though they have, otherwise been consistently insisting its coming

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 11:45 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 5:01 p.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 5:01 p.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2020, 5:02 p.m.
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Lake effect snows!


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png