KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 415.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +13.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1375.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -26.0%)
8:30 AM ET. January Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3.5)
Employment Idx (previous 10.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 2.6)
Prices Received (previous 4.3)
8:30 AM ET. December PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0%)
10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 431.06M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.164M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 251.609M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +9.137M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.05M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.33M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.351M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.571M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, January 16, 2020
8:30 AM ET. January Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 0.3)
Prices Paid (previous 19.0)
Employment (previous 17.8)
New Orders (previous 9.4)
Prices Received (previous 11.9)
Delivery Times (previous 10.6)
Inventories (previous 6.1)
Shipments (previous 15.9)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1803000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +75K)
8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 76)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3148B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -44B)
4:00 PM ET. November Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A World Economic Situation and Prospects report
Friday, January 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.365M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +3.2%)
Building Permits (previous 1.482M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)
10:00 AM ET. November Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 99.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.9)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8813.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9114.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8813.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8528.91.
The March S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3237.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3289.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3237.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3165.00.
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it posted a new all-time high. Profit taking tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,604.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29,054.16. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,604.44. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 28,132.41.
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March T-bonds closed up 21/32's at 157-29.
March T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 160-12 is the next upside target. If March renews last-Wednesday's decline, January's low crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes closed up 80-pts. At 129.055.
March T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last-Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 130.175 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.213 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.63 have opened the door for a possible test of the November 29th low crossing at 55.01 later this winter. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.79 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 65.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 68.84. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 58.01. Second support is the November 29th low crossing at 55.01.
February heating oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 186.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.76 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 211.95. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 214.32. First support is today's low crossing at 188.48. Second support is December's low crossing at 186.68.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, December's low crossing at 156.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.04 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 180.11. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the December 11th low crossing at 161.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 156.22.
February Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.211 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.211. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is January's low crossing at 2.062. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed steady to slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.76. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.02.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.96 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the December 6th low crossing at 111.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.12. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1.2940 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0314 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0420. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0314. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0233.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.98.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0923 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is April's low crossing 0.0913. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1545.90 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 20-day morning crossing at $1523.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1495.60.
March silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.771 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.771. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.403.
March copper closed higher on Tuesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 281.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 287.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.89. Second support is December's low crossing at 262.05.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at 3.88 3/4.
March corn closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rebound off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. If March extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.76 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat closed up $0.06 1/4-cents at $5.68 1/2.
March wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $4.97.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it posted its highest close since last-July. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.75 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $5.00 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.75 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.51 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.56.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.32 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed unchanged at $9.42 1/4.
March soybeans closed unchanged on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $9.35 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $9.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $9.35 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $1.80 at $302.00.
March soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday while extending the December-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 18th high crossing at $307.90 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March extends last-Thursday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 18th high crossing at $307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil closed up 13-pts. at 34.08.
March soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is today's low crossing at 33.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.64.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $1.78 at $67.68.
February hogs closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.83 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $65.57. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.
February cattle closed up $0.30 at $126.85.
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. Closes below is January's low crossing at $124.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is January's low crossing at $124.55. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.13-cents at $147.72.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at $141.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at $149.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $147.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 April-September decline crossing at $149.81. First support is January's low crossing at $141.33. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed steady to slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 10.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.63 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 26.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off September's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-February's high crossing at 14.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.57 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 74.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.