Crude and products
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Started by Jim_M - Jan. 15, 2020, 10:54 a.m.

Anyone following crude and products.  The EIA report was pretty bearish today.  Bad enough the stock builds in unleaded and distallates, but usages are down which doesn't bode well for prices

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By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:09 p.m.
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Thanks Jim for bringing up a topic many here follow!

Previous thread on Crude: 

                Oil taking off            

                            17 responses |               

                Started by patrick - Jan. 2, 2020, 9:32 p.m.       

   https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45234/


  

I saw the spike lower on the release of the EIA numbers.


https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75

  Latest Release   Jan 15, 2020    Actual-2.549M   Forecast-0.474M     Previous1.164M


                                                                                                                                                                                         

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jan 15, 2020 10:30-2.549M-0.474M1.164M
Jan 08, 2020 10:301.164M-3.572M-11.463M
Jan 03, 2020 11:00-11.463M-3.288M-5.474M
Dec 27, 2019 11:00-5.474M-1.724M-1.085M
Dec 18, 2019 10:30-1.085M-1.288M0.822M
Dec 11, 2019 10:300.822M-2.763M-4.856M
By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:10 p.m.
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Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. 

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W

          


        Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. 

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

                                    



          Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast).  

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:16 p.m.
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Crude oil 10 year chart.

Looks like a solid bottom at the start of 2016 and uptrend that has not been violated yet. 

Was 2018 the top?



By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:17 p.m.
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Unleaded gas price:

`less than 1 year chart below

2 years below

          10 years below

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:18 p.m.
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Current gas prices:

https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap?z=4&lng=-96.591588&lat=38.822395


Why are west coast gasoline prices higher?

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-west-coast-gasoline-prices-higher


metmike: We were in Missouri on Sunday and gas prices were just above $2/gallon there!

By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:21 p.m.
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The EIA Is Grossly Overestimating U.S. Shale


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-EIA-Is-Grossly-Overestimating-US-Shale.html


The U.S. has more than doubled oil production over the past decade, and at roughly 12.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), the U.S is the largest producer in the world. That is largely the result of a massive scaling-up of output in places like the Bakken, the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Conventional wisdom suggests the output will steadily rise for years to come.

It is worth reiterating that after an initial burst of production, shale wells decline rapidly, often 75 to 90 percent within just a few years. Growing output requires constant drilling. Also, the quality of shale reserves vary widely, with the “sweet spots” typically comprising only 20 percent or less of an overall shale play, J. David Hughes writes in the Post Carbon Institute report. 

By metmike - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:22 p.m.
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IEA: Peak Oil Demand Is Less Than A Decade Away

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/IEA-Peak-Oil-Demand-Is-Less-Than-A-Decade-Away.html

"Global oil demand will reach its peak in the mid-2020s and plateau around 2030, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook for 2019.

Until about 2025, the IEA said, global oil demand will expand by about 1 percent annually, exceeding 100 million bpd and reaching 105.4 million bpd. After that growth will shrink substantially and demand will reach a plateau at less than 110 million bpd—106.4 million bpd.

 

The bad news for the oil industry has a silver lining, however. According to IEA, natural depletion will shrink oil supply and lead to an increase in prices. These, the agency said, could average $90 a barrel in 2030 and $103 a barrel in 2040."

metmike: So much for the Green New Deal fairly tale of cutting fossil fuels to near 0.


By Jim_M - Jan. 15, 2020, 12:31 p.m.
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I read this morning the EIA has increased the size of the crude production to over 1 million barrels a day up from the previous projection of 930K barrels.  

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2020, 7:14 p.m.
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Interesting that the liquid energies gapped higher on the open tonight........but were unable to continue, with a little spike up and now back down near the opening price.

This, while ng gapped lower and spiked sharply lower to a price not seen at this time of year since?  A very, very long time!

By metmike - Jan. 20, 2020, 12:18 p.m.
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Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Monday, 20th January

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/top-5-things-to-know-in-the-market-on-monday-20th-january-2063092?utm_source=reponsys&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Top5Things_MultiLingual_ExcludGmail_Engaged_20/01/2020

Oil prices spike on Libyan, Iraqi moves

Oil prices advanced but gave up most of their weekend gains after unrest hit production in Iraq and Libya.


By Jim_M - Jan. 22, 2020, 7:10 p.m.
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Looks like crude and product prices came back to reality.

By Richard - Jan. 22, 2020, 11:22 p.m.
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I think a fair price is $180/barrel

By Richard - Jan. 22, 2020, 11:22 p.m.
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I think a fair price is $180/barrel

By Jim_M - Jan. 23, 2020, 10:54 a.m.
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Not in our lifetime.  In a heartbeat SUVs will be left for dead on the side of the road.  Everyone and their brother will be driving hybrids or electric vehicles.  Hydrogen cars will be a thing.  

@$180 a barrel they will be squeezing oil out of oranges.  That's a joke, but I think you know what I mean.