KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 16, 2020
8:30 AM ET. January Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 0.3)
Prices Paid (previous 19.0)
Employment (previous 17.8)
New Orders (previous 9.4)
Prices Received (previous 11.9)
Delivery Times (previous 10.6)
Inventories (previous 6.1)
Shipments (previous 15.9)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1803000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +75K)
8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 76)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3148B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -44B)
4:00 PM ET. November Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A World Economic Situation and Prospects report
Friday, January 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.365M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +3.2%)
Building Permits (previous 1.482M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)
10:00 AM ET. November Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 99.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.9)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off last-August's low. Wednesday's signing of phase 1 of a new trade agreement between China and the U.S. has provided the catalyst for the stock market to extend the aforementioned rally into 2020. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8860.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9114.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8860.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8563.41.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3248.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3301.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3248.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3174.26.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-31 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-13. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at 130.060 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.240 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.240. Second support is December's low crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 56.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.55. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 65.65. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 58.01. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 56.21.
February heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 183.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.29 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.35. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 187.31. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 183.37.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it appears to be forming a small bear flag. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 157.36 is the next possible downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is January's high crossing at 181.14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the December 11th low crossing at 161.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 157.36.
February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 2.255 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.255. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is January's low crossing at 2.083. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.87 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17. Second resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. First support is December's low crossing at 96.02. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 95.63.
The March Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, the December 6th low crossing at 111.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3094 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it has resumed the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0330 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0435. Second resistance the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0331. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0240.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 76.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 77.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 77.97. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 76.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.99.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0919. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at $1531.10 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1531.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1497.00.
March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI rename neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.863 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at $18.930 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at $18.930. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.863. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.394.
March copper was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $282.18 would temper the near-term, friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $288.55. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $282.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $274.70.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight and poised to breakout to the downside of the December-January trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low and would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.76 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was lower overnight due to spillover weakness from corn and soybeans. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.55 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.78 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.55 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.00 1/2-cent at $4.96 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Wednesday but not before posting its highest close since last-July. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.77 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.77 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.52 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.49 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $5.45 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.49 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.27 1/2. would open for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.42 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.27 1/2. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at $9.02 1/2.
March soybean meal was lower overnight and poised to breakout to the downside of the December-January trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes last-Thursday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above December's high crossing at $307.90 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.38 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the overnight low crossing at 33.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.69.
Thanks tallpine!
Grains getting hammered. Not sure if the warmer drier outlook for the Midwest has anything to do with it(3 months before planting but soils are saturated and there's been tons of talk that we could have issues like last year from wet/cold).
Still think rains after the next several days will become more scarce in Argentina/S.Brazil but the market obviously doesn't care(temps will be cool).
Drought denting rains in Australia could be a factor pressuring wheat.
Milder temps for ng compared to earlier this week and lower prices than 3 days ago but the EIA number was pretty bullish, so we are a bit higher for the day.
Cold threat to FL, which was slight to begin with, is even less today.