INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 16, 2020, 4:57 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, January 17, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits



                       Total Starts (previous 1.365M)



                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +3.2%)



                       Building Permits (previous 1.482M)



                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous +1.4%)



9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.3%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)



10:00 AM ET. November Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey



10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 99.2)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.9)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8864.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9140.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8864.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8564.23.   



The March S&P 500 gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3249.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3318.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3249.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3174.49.  



The Dow gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday posting a new all-time high as it extends the rally off last-October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,694.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29,300.32. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,694.11. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 28,202.22.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 9/32's at 158-07.



March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 160-12 is the next upside target. If March renews last-Wednesday's decline, January's low crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-12. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00. 



March T-notes closed down 50-pts. At 129.060.



March T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 130.175 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.238 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is December's low crossing at 127.290. Second support is July's low crossing at 127.090.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 56.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.58 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.58. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 65.62. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 58.01. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 56.21. 



February heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 184.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.32. First support is today's low crossing at 185.67. Second support is November's low crossing at 184.04.



February unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, December's low crossing at 156.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.87 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 180.11. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 188.45. First support is the December 11th low crossing at 161.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 156.22.



February Henry natural gas posted a new low close on Thursday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 2.255 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.255. Second resistance is the December 16th high crossing at 2.351. First support is today's low crossing at 2.071. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.029.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.88 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the December 23rd high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.88. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.02.



The March Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.89 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the December 6th low crossing at 111.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.12. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.



The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.3548 is the next upside target. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1.2940 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-September decline crossing at 1.3748. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2830.



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0329 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0444. Second resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0329. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0240.



The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 76.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 78.84. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 76.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.99. 



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0919. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922. First support is today's low crossing 0.0910. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0906.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off this month's high,  the 20-day moving average crossing at $1531.00 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 20-day morning crossing at $1531.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1497.00.



March silver closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.861 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.861. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.393.



March copper posted a downside reversal with today's lower close.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 282.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 288.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 289.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.64. Second support is December's low crossing at 262.05. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down $0.11 1/2-cents at 3.76. 



March corn closed sharply lower on Thursday due to uncertainty over whether the partial trade agreement yesterday between the U.S. and China will lead to substantially higher sales, which triggered a round of technical selling. Corn exports were termed favorable coming in at 30.9 million bushels in old crop sales last week, moving far above the prior week’s tally of 6.4 million bushels. Total volume was on the high end of trade guesses that ranged between 19.7 million and 37.4 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $3.92 are needed to renew the rally off December's low while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is today's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $5.65 1/2.  



March wheat closed lower on Thursday due to technical selling. Export sales hit 26.1 million bushels in old crop and new crop sales. The total beat out all analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2019/20 marketing year are now at 550 million bushels, besting last year’s pace by more than 20%. Despite the favorable export sales report, March's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.55 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, last-June's high crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.78 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.55 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/4.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 3/4-cents at $4.84 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on technical selling on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.78 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.78 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.53 3/4.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06-cents at $5.50 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.491/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $5.62 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.32 3/4.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $9.24 1/4.



March soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's decline. Today'sexport sales report was 3% above its prior four-week average at 26.1 million bushels and in the middle of trade guesses. China (8.0 million) and the Netherlands (7.3 million) accounted for more than half of the total. Cumulative totals this marketing year remain 30% higher than a year ago, at 854 million bushels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $9.02 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.42 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $9.58 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.70. First support is today's low crossing at $9.22. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at $9.02 1/2.    



March soybean meal closed up $0.50 at $300.60. 



March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday while extending the December-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 18th high crossing at $307.90 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the December 18th high crossing at $307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.    



March soybean oil closed down 26-pts. at 33.04. 



March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is today's low crossing at 32.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.69.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $1.00 at $66.88. 



February hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $65.57. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.   



February cattle closed down $0.48 at $126.12. 



February cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below is January's low crossing at $124.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is January's low crossing at $124.55. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.35-cents at $144.82. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at $141.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at $149.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $147.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 April-September decline crossing at $149.81. First support is January's low crossing at $141.33. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 10.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.36 would confirm that a low has been posted.



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, last-May's high crossing at 28.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        



March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-February's high crossing at 14.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.69 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. 



March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 74.04 is the next upside target.        





Comments
By metmike - Jan. 16, 2020, 10:33 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Increasingly mild temp forecasts ae crushing ng prices to below previous life of contract lows.

S.Brazil looks pretty dry to me the next 2 weeks (some decent rains elsewhere and in N.Argentina) with rains this week over there........but the market obviously doesn't care. Maybe the trade agreement details and USDA report have been too bearish.

OJ couldn't bounce much and went back down a bit today because the threat of cold to FL is at least 10 degrees too warm. 

Some rains in Australia might be bearish wheat, though planting is a couple of months away.