Happy New Year! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the new year!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
New pattern shaping up will be mild.
Will February turn colder?
NEW: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
Moderate Snow in the Great Lakes/Northeast(enhanced/heavy lake effect). Big snows N.Rockies/Northwest US this week before the big pattern change!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Frigid air is bodily on the move, south and east before this time frame but moderates during this time frame!!!!
Then temps bounce back to near average.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Magnitude of the extreme anomalies is greatly modifying..................then warming to above average along the northern tier.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Arctic High pressure moderates to above average temps by the end of the period into week 2.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
January 15 : DROUGHT the last 3 months has really shrunk. It's GONE in the Southeast! One area to watch is sw Kansas and the S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's dormant right now.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Starting with last week below:
Last Friday: GFS has been joining the Canadian party with colder solutions.........European model not nearly as cold. Same theme. The previous trough/west, ridge east is replaced with a ridge/west, trough/east couplet that warms the west and chills the east..........on the Canadian model. Cross polar flow at high latitudes will drain frigid air into Canada, so cold fronts could pack some bone chilling punch. There is alot of uncertainty on how much amplification the new pattern will attain.
Saturday: At a chess tournament today.
Sunday: forecast philosophy progressing nicely....pattern change to much colder is getting closer with each passing day. See GFS ensemble average below for Sunday’s details as well as indices page.
Monday: Continuation of a complete change/reversal of the pattern and amplification of it with time. Now we have pretty good agreement with members of the Canadian model, which has been the coldest model...........but leading the way, as other models follow. Big ridge/west to north of Alaska, trough downstream in Canada........deeply into the Midwest/East, is textbook cold air delivery, flushing air from Canada that could be frigid from cross polar flow(from Siberia)...........deeply in to the US. High confidence that some form of this pattern will become more and more engaged as it gets progressively colder in the East/Southeast. The question is how extreme will it get? A greater amplification could give us another visit from the Polar Vortex.......yes, this is the right pattern for that. One should not that the shifts predicted in this change have been slower to materialize than predicted by models even though they have, otherwise been consistently insisting its coming
Tuesday: Same forecast philosophy with typical models fluctuations late in week 2, while still staying with the same ridge/west, trough east couplet solution. Today's Canadian ensemble is actually not quite as amplified/cold as Mondays, though the ng market is finally reacting strongly to the cold today so far.
Wednesday: Same forecast/pattern on the Canadian model. European model made huge changes mid day Tuesday with more zonal and milder flow from the Pacific, deflecting the northern stream and cold much farther northeast.
Thursday: Not nearly as cold or as much northern stream. Still ridge/west, trough east but MUCH weaker or more zonal than yesterday.
Friday: Same as Thursday. Milder.
Saturday: Change from Friday! Half the members greatly amplify the northern stream and are VERY cold. Even some cross polar flow on a few. The other half are very mild. The average has the ridge/west, trough east more amplified. Canadian model is by far the coldest model this morning. Other models are milder.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 02, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
2 Mondays ago: Ridge in the Southeast is stronger and farther west(warmer) today vs Sunday.
Tuesday: Ridge East, trough West.......heavy precip in the middle, huge snows in the colder air. Big Winter storms possible between the contrasting air masses.
Wednesday: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44715/
There is frigid air coming south from Canada but the entry point is too far west to be bullish, since the high population centers and highest heating demand for ng is in the Midwest/East/South.
We have a solidly -PNA pattern thru the period which strongly favors the cold to continue in the West and to have a tough time staying in the East, other than brief intrusions. Also a +AO(that does drop late) and +NAO that drops close to 0 late. We need those last 2 indices to be, at least close to 0 if not negative to give the frigid air a chance to last in the Midwest/East.
The trend for them to move in that direction at the end of 2 weeks and the AO has a couple solutions going negative and with the massive upper level ridge in the Northeast Pacific being the main feature and forecast to strengthen and build northward, likely connecting/extending to Siberia..........establishing a cross polar flow into Canada and a down steam trough in the mid latitudes.........which will be ideal for the most frigid air on the planet to dump south via the Siberian Express.
The entry point is in the West with a stout upper level ridge in the East trying to hold it back. Seems to me that based on the past, the ridge in the East often loses the battle in the end to the more powerful northern stream and....it's going to be difficult to hold back this massive amount of bone chilling air.
Look at the magnitude of the upper level height anomalies below at 2 weeks. The building positives/west and negative/downstream couplet, with 100% certainty, anything close to this will drive Arctic/Polar air south. This is the most important dynamic going on. Almost as important is the modest positive anomaly in the East. This is what will be holding back the lions share of cold and making spurts of the cold eastward brief...if it weakens, the frigid air will come in bodily/eastward and stay for longer and be very bullish.
So while the forecast is bearish with regards to HDD's in the Midwest/East because of the modest ridging, we are a stone's throw (on a global scale) at 2 weeks of it becoming very bullish.
Do note that this pattern will feature some MAJOR Winter Storms and feet of snow in the cold sector........with the contrast in temps and jet stream providing tons of energy, along with the deep upper level trough and moisture flowing in from the ridging to the East.
The heaviest snows will be in the West but possibly in the Upper Lakes to far Northeast where the southern edge of the cold/boundary has a chance to settle south and be overrun by moisture.
This is also the ideal set up for ice/freezing rain, with the more dense, bitter cold at the surface, pushing southeast with north winds at lower levels and undercutting the warmer/moist air aloft, where a southerly(south to north) component to air movement exists.
Thursday: Similar to yesterday. Where will the amplified Ridge/Trough/Ridge large scale features set up? Amplified flow pattern means some extreme weather.
Saturday: This model holds on to the same pattern thru 2 weeks on this solution. Massive Northeast Pacific ridge.........Deep trough/low Northwest US, big ridge Southeast US. With high confidence the WestNW will be very cold. Question is, how far east to take that cold? The Southeast will be VERY mild well into week 2 but that could change if the Canadian model has it right.
Sunday: The GFS Ensembles still hold on to the same pattern at 2 weeks, even though it allows for temporary cold shots to sweep east.
Monday: Same pattern, different day and again, much different and milder than the Canadian model at 2 weeks.
Tuesday: Same as recently. Ridge Northeast Pacific. Trough(not as deep today) Pac Northwest, Ridge along the East Coast. Not favorable for lasting cold in the East.
Thursday: The long lived pattern is finally show strong signs of weakening, if not ending. The biggest chance is the extreme negative anomaly in the Northwest is going bye bye......which might allow cold air masses to the east to penetrate deeper. However, the ridge in the East from the southern stream does not want to give up. So there will be a huge battle between the northern and southern streams. Cross polar flow here means the source region for cold coming from Canada may have air from Siberia.
Friday: Big positive anomaly in Alaska connects downsteam with a negative anomaly shifting east, into the middle of the country(with the negative in the NWest filling in). Still a positive anomaly along the East Coast but this will weaken and turn negative........possibly. The biggest deal is the cross polar flow from the ridge in Alaska. Air masses from Siberia will be dumped into Canada, then be transported south, feeding into the downstream trough in the US.
Sunday: Progressing as expected. Powerful positive anomaly in Alaska and downstream negative anomaly in the Northeast is textbook couplet for cold air delivery from Canada south into the US. The source region of that cold could be Siberia with potential cross polar flow.......meaning frigid!
Monday: Classical ridge/West, trough southeast couplet is amplifying with time. If this verifies even close, temperatures will be below normal in the Midwest/East with high confidence.
Tuesday: Not as amplified today but still the same ridge in Alaska anomaly center and downstream trough in the Northeast US to Southeast Canada which provides the ideal circulation pattern for cold air masses in Canada to plunge deeply into the US.
Wednesday: The anomalies from earlier this week have filled in and greatly weakened as well as shifted east. So milder air is pushing from the west to the middle of the country vs yesterday.
Thursday: These maps were not working but I glanced earlier. Much different than recent days. Positive anomaly shifts to Central Canada and negative anomaly in southern US. Mild far north, chilly south.
Friday: Positive anomaly from the West Coast to the Plains with very mild Pacific air over that area and spreading farther east at times.
Saturday: Same mild pattern as yesterday. Biggest plus departures will be in the West.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Discussions, starting with the oldest.
Last Friday: Ding Dong the amazing +++AO may be dead. At least the plunge lower in week 2 today looks the most convincing of any solutions recently. The potential new pattern will allow frigid air from high latitudes to travel to mid latitudes. However, the NAO tenaciously holds on to slightly positive thru the period, which potentially could provide a bit of resistence to the cold penetating deeply southeast. The incredible --PNA will also die as it moves closer to 0 but is still negative.
Saturday: AO continues to drop hard in week 2 with PNA coming up for record --PNA to near 0. This increases cold risks enormously. However, the NAO stays positive which will try to repel the cold in the South/Southeast.
Sunday: the biggest change today is that record —PNA rises all the way to positive. Wow. Warmer west colder east....very high confidence.
Monday: Complete metamorphose going on in the atmosphere, reflected by these indices reversing. AO goes from the recent +++AO back down to near zero.........several are negative. NAO drops from positive to near zero.........several are negative. PNA goes from recent, amazing ++PNA up to near zero. This means that the recent cold in the west will shift east and penetrate deeply as the West gradually warms up very late in the period. The magnitude of the new pattern will determine how anomalous/extreme it becomes. We have a few more solutions today that are getting more extreme. One should not that the shifts predicted in this change have been slower to materialize than predicted by models even though they have, otherwise been consistently insisting its coming.
Tuesday: Very similar to yesterday. Recent extreme +AO drops to 0. Modest +NAO close to 0 and record -PNA to 0. Not quite as cold as yesterday(at the end of 2 weeks at least) in my opinion, though the ng market has picked today to react higher.
Wednesday: Recent +++AO continues to drop to 0. Recent +NAO drops to 0. Recent record --PNA increases to 0. So we go from record warm indices to neutral...........some weather models have not been as cold the past 24 hours, especially the much milder European model.
Thursday: AO still drops to 0, some members a tad negative. Same with NAO. PNA increases to a tad positive. Favors cooler temps but nothing extreme.
Friday: Recent extremes in these indices will move towards 0.
Saturday: Recent ++++AO continues to drop but stays slightly positive.......with huge spread, including a couple that are -AO. NAO drops a tad to near 0. Record --PNA continues to increase to slight +PNA. The amount of spread and lack of agreement means uncertainty.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Interesting the this forecast is so cold for the first half of February!
Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
Valid: 01 Feb 2020 to 14 Feb 2020 Updated: 17 Jan 2020 | ||
Please provide comments using the online survey. | ||
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental) | |
Previous comments:
By Jim_M - Jan. 17, 2020, 4:02 p.m.
I hate the cold and as far as I'm concerned for NE Ohio, this has been a great winter so far. Looking t the week3-4 map and the cold, winter is past the half way point.
My concern is usually cold winters kill off bugs. Could be a miserable summer for insects.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Friday
By metmike - Jan. 18, 2020, 8:18 a.m.
Thank Jim.
Yes, we are past the halfway point of Winter weather. Mild Winters do allow more living things to survive, including bugs. Cold is what kills most life prematurely on this planet.
Mike said: "Saturday: Change from Friday! Half the members greatly amplify the northern stream and are VERY cold. Even some cross polar flow on a few. The other half are very mild. The average has the ridge/west, trough east more amplified. Canadian model is by far the coldest model this morning. Other models are milder."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike,
The CDN ensemble cold bias has been awful. Actually, all models have averaged too cold recently with the GFS ens being bad and even the Euro ens having some cold bias though the least of the three. But again, the CDN has been THE worst. You probably already realize this. I don't think the NG market takes it seriously, especially when it is cold on its own.