Weather Sunday
14 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 9:54 a.m.

Happy day to be alive!   Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.


 

Will February turn colder? I'm on the fence. The mild pattern is tenacious and acting like we have an El Nino( with the tropical Pacific  on the warm side of neutral and not quite El Nino right now) but the models keep insisting it will turn colder. 

A case can be made for the weather to turn colder and also not to turn cold in February......conflicting signals....that's what makes forecasting the weather so much fun!!

We need a -AO in the forecast to have confidence of sustained Feb. cold. 

The models keep going back and forth on how much cold is coming in week 2.  Wednesday looked much colder, Friday looked milder. Saturday looked colder. Saturday night is milder again. 


NEW: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


Winter Weather Forecasts

Moderate Snow in the Great Lakes/Northeast(enhanced/heavy lake effect).  Big snows N.Rockies/Northwest US this week before the big pattern change! 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 9:55 a.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:



No real cold anywhere.  Mild for mid-Winter!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 9:55 a.m.
Like Reply

Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  


Warming to MUCH above average along the northern tier. A sea of red!  



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 9:56 a.m.
Like Reply

Surface Weather features day 3-7:


No major cold air in sight or major weather systems.......quiet, especially for January. A couple of mild Pacific origin cold fronts.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 9:57 a.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10 a.m.
Like Reply

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:01 a.m.
Like Reply

Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:01 a.m.
Like Reply

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:01 a.m.
Like Reply

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


January 15 : DROUGHT the last  3 months has really shrunk. It's GONE in the Southeast!  One area to watch is sw Kansas and the S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's  dormant right now.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/    

                                                   

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        

  • Drought Monitor for conus

      

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:09 a.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Starting with last week below:



Friday before last: GFS has been joining the Canadian party with colder solutions.........European model not nearly as cold. Same theme. The previous trough/west, ridge east is replaced with a ridge/west, trough/east couplet that warms the west and chills the east..........on the Canadian model. Cross polar flow at high latitudes will drain frigid air into Canada, so cold fronts could pack some bone chilling punch. There is alot of uncertainty on how much amplification the new pattern will attain.

Saturday: At a chess tournament today.

Sunday: forecast philosophy progressing nicely....pattern change to much colder is getting closer with each passing day. See GFS ensemble average below for Sunday’s details as well as indices page.

Monday: Continuation of a complete change/reversal of the pattern and amplification of it with time. Now we have pretty good agreement with members of the Canadian model, which has been the coldest model...........but leading the way, as other models follow.  Big ridge/west to north of Alaska, trough downstream in Canada........deeply into the Midwest/East, is textbook cold air delivery, flushing air from Canada that could be frigid from cross polar flow(from Siberia)...........deeply in to the US.   High confidence that some form of this pattern will become more and more engaged as it gets progressively colder in the East/Southeast.  The question is how extreme will it get?  A greater amplification could give us another visit from the Polar Vortex.......yes, this is the right pattern for that. One should not that the shifts predicted in this change have been slower to materialize than predicted by models even though they have, otherwise been consistently insisting its coming

Tuesday: Same forecast philosophy with typical models fluctuations late in week 2, while still staying with the same ridge/west, trough east couplet solution. Today's Canadian ensemble is actually not quite as amplified/cold as Mondays, though the ng market is finally reacting strongly to the cold today so far. 

Wednesday: Same forecast/pattern on the Canadian model. European model made huge changes mid day Tuesday with more zonal and milder flow from the Pacific, deflecting the northern stream and cold much farther northeast.

Thursday: Not nearly as cold or as much northern stream. Still ridge/west, trough east but MUCH weaker or more zonal than yesterday. 

Friday: Same as Thursday. Milder.

Saturday: Change from Friday!  Half the members greatly amplify the northern stream and are VERY cold. Even some cross polar flow on a few. The other half are very mild. The average has the ridge/west, trough east more amplified. Canadian model is by far the coldest model this morning. Other models are milder.

Sunday: 12z run. Similar to Saturday but slightly less amplified. Still almost half the members looking pretty cold. As Larry pointed out, this model has been much too cold the last month. 

Monday: Definitely less amplified at higher latitudes today, which suggests more zonal flow and Arctic air completely cut off from moving south. However,  pronounced ridge SWest to West and downstream trough couplet suggests cool weather in the Southcentral to South(very mild north).  A minority still want to bring in northern stream action/cold but the Canadian model has tried to do this repeatedly in recent days and mostly been wrong. 

Tuesday: More amplified than Monday and a tad colder but not a great deal of northern stream influence on most solutions(minority do have a significant northern stream) just a ridge/west, cooler trough downstream couplet in the southern stream....without frigid air to tap. This model has been too cold for the last month.

Thursday: Canadian model continues to be the coldest model and is a bit cold overnight......but the other models have been moving towards the Canadian model, especially the European model late in week 2. All the models have been too cold the past month, so there is reason to be skeptical of the cold, while still wanting to believe the models trends moving in that direction. Wednesday and Wed Night. Regardless, the pattern below is for the northern jet stream to shift very far south and the Polar vortex to also accompany that/in concert as it drops to SouthCentral to Southeast Canada. There is some decent upper level ridging along the West Coast that might assist that. 

Friday: 12z run.  HUGE changes for an ensemble. MUCH milder, zonal, Pacific, west to east flow spreading across the country. 

Saturday: Milder than a couple of days ago still with more zonal flow but still uncertain with a potential weakness/trough south of the Canadian border that cold air can drop into.

Sunday: We really have a battle going on here with all the models going back and forth each day/run on how much cold to bring down in week 2 based on whether the northern stream can make in roads south into the recently dominant southern stream binging Pacific air masses in here. We were colder midweek, then turned much milder Friday. Colder again Saturday afternoon, then milder again Saturday Night. A few solutions are bitter cold which is causing the average to be pretty cold even though the majority are not that cold.  Confidence is low. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 10, 2020 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:11 a.m.
Like Reply

   

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:14 a.m.
Like Reply

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


2 Mondays ago: Ridge in the Southeast is stronger and farther west(warmer) today vs Sunday.

Tuesday: Ridge East, trough West.......heavy precip in the middle, huge snows in the colder air. Big Winter storms possible between the contrasting air masses.

Wednesday:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/44715/ 

There is frigid air coming south from Canada but the entry point is too far west to be bullish, since the high population centers and highest heating demand for ng is in the Midwest/East/South.

We have a solidly -PNA pattern thru the period which strongly favors the cold to continue in the West and to  have a tough time staying in the East, other than brief intrusions. Also a +AO(that does drop late) and +NAO that drops close to 0 late.  We need those last 2 indices to be, at least close to 0 if not negative to give the frigid air a chance to last in the Midwest/East.

The trend  for them to move in that direction at the end of 2 weeks and the AO has a couple solutions going negative and  with the massive upper level ridge in the Northeast Pacific being the main feature and forecast to strengthen and build northward, likely connecting/extending to Siberia..........establishing a cross polar flow into Canada and a down steam trough in the mid latitudes.........which will be ideal for the most frigid air on the planet to dump south via the Siberian Express.

The entry point is in the West with a stout upper level ridge in the East trying to hold it back. Seems to me that based on the past, the ridge in the East often loses the battle in the end to the more powerful northern stream and....it's going to be difficult to hold back this massive amount of bone chilling air. 

Look at the magnitude of the upper level height anomalies below at 2 weeks. The building positives/west and negative/downstream couplet, with 100% certainty, anything close to this will drive Arctic/Polar air south.  This is  the most important dynamic going on. Almost as important is the modest positive anomaly in the East. This is what will be holding back the lions share of cold and making spurts of the cold eastward brief...if it weakens, the frigid air will come in bodily/eastward and stay for longer and be very bullish. 

So while the forecast is bearish with regards to HDD's in the Midwest/East because of the modest ridging, we are a stone's throw (on a global scale) at 2 weeks of it becoming very bullish.

Do note that this pattern will feature some MAJOR Winter Storms and  feet of snow in the cold sector........with the contrast in temps and jet stream providing tons of energy, along with the deep upper level trough and moisture flowing in from the ridging to the East. 

The heaviest snows will be in the West but possibly in the Upper Lakes to far Northeast where the southern edge of the cold/boundary has a chance to settle south and be overrun by moisture. 

This is also the ideal set up for ice/freezing rain, with the more dense, bitter cold at the surface, pushing southeast with north winds at lower levels and  undercutting the warmer/moist air aloft, where a southerly(south to north) component to air movement exists.

Thursday: Similar to yesterday. Where will the amplified Ridge/Trough/Ridge large scale features set up? Amplified flow pattern means some extreme weather.

Saturday: This model holds on to the same pattern thru 2 weeks on this solution. Massive Northeast Pacific ridge.........Deep trough/low Northwest US, big ridge Southeast US. With high confidence the WestNW will be very cold. Question is, how far east to take that cold?  The Southeast will be VERY mild well into week 2 but that could change if the Canadian model has it right.

Sunday: The GFS Ensembles still hold on to the same pattern at 2 weeks, even though it allows for temporary cold shots to sweep east. 

Monday: Same pattern, different day and again, much different and milder than the Canadian model at 2 weeks. 

Tuesday: Same as recently. Ridge Northeast Pacific. Trough(not as deep today) Pac Northwest, Ridge along the East Coast. Not favorable for lasting cold in the East.

Thursday: The long lived pattern is finally show strong signs of weakening, if not ending.  The biggest chance is the extreme negative anomaly in the Northwest is going bye bye......which might allow cold air masses to the east to penetrate deeper. However, the ridge in the East from the southern stream does not want to give up. So there will be a huge battle between the northern and southern streams.  Cross polar flow here means the source region for cold coming from Canada may have air from Siberia.

Friday:  Big positive anomaly in Alaska connects downsteam with a negative anomaly shifting east, into the middle of the country(with the negative in the NWest filling in). Still a positive anomaly along the East Coast but this will weaken and turn negative........possibly. The biggest deal is the cross polar flow from the ridge in Alaska. Air masses from Siberia will be dumped into Canada, then be transported south, feeding into the downstream trough in the US.

Sunday: Progressing as expected. Powerful positive anomaly in Alaska and downstream negative anomaly in the Northeast is textbook couplet for cold air delivery from Canada south into the US. The source region of that cold could be Siberia with potential cross polar flow.......meaning frigid!

Monday: Classical ridge/West, trough southeast couplet is amplifying with time. If this verifies even close, temperatures will be below normal in the Midwest/East with high confidence. 

Tuesday:  Not as amplified today but still the same ridge in Alaska anomaly center and downstream trough in the Northeast US to Southeast Canada which provides the ideal circulation pattern for cold air masses in Canada to plunge deeply into the US.

Wednesday: The anomalies from earlier this week have filled in and greatly weakened as well as shifted east. So milder air is pushing from the west to the middle of the country vs yesterday. 

Thursday: These maps were not working but I glanced earlier. Much different than recent days. Positive anomaly shifts to Central Canada and negative anomaly in southern US.   Mild far north, chilly south.

Friday: Positive anomaly from the West Coast to the Plains with very mild Pacific air over that area and spreading farther  east at times.

Saturday: Same mild pattern as yesterday. Biggest plus departures will be in the West.

Sunday: Is some sort of ridge/West, trough/East Coast couplet trying to form? Not much frigid air is available though.

Monday:  Modest to minor anomalies have been shifting around alot late in week 2....... and nothing of great magnitude, which usually means quiet, zonal  and mostly mild with no Arctic outbreaks. 

Tuesday: Numerous anomalies, without any one being powerful enough to key off of.  The dominant pattern leading up to this period, however is mild Pacific flow and modest ridging along the West Coast in mid latitudes. One thing that does stand out with the maps below is cross polar flow into Alaska and NW Canada. Some of that could leak farther south if the zonal flow in the US allows it.

Thursday: Unusual configuration. At the mid latitudes, a favorable ridge/West, trough east couplet for warm West and cold East. Just the opposite at higher latitudes with a trough/West and Ridge/East.  This probably means the real frigid air will stay locked up around Alaska/N.Canada, while the cold air delivery farther south in the US is good at times(in the East), the fronts will most often have Pacific air masses that are mild with the major cold much too far north to get entrained into most/all of these fronts. If the pattern amplified like the Canadian model(or what some other model runs have done at times-and most been too cold) then the bitter cold could be tapped.but not with the anomalies below. 

Friday: Anomaly magnitudes pretty weak and NOT favorable for cold air moving south from higher latitudes. Sure, there will be  "cold" fronts in the East with this type of pattern but they will lack a frigid punch and not be sustained.

Saturday:  Unstable anomaly centers. A new big one popping up in the N.Atlantic. Could this turn into a Greeland block with a -NAO developing and cold East? Negative anomalies in Alaska and NW Canada will keep coldest air up there until this changes.

Sunday: Models struggling with how much cold comes in week 2. Anomalies below are not ideal for sustained cold to penetrate deeply into the US. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:16 a.m.
Like Reply

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Discussions, starting with the oldest.



Last Monday: Complete metamorphose going on in the atmosphere, reflected by these indices reversing.         AO goes from the recent +++AO back down to near zero.........several are negative. NAO drops from positive to near zero.........several are negative.  PNA goes from recent, amazing ++PNA up to near zero. This means that the recent cold in the west will shift east and penetrate deeply as the West gradually warms up very late in the period. The magnitude of the new pattern will determine how anomalous/extreme it becomes. We have a few more solutions today that are getting more extreme. One should not that the shifts predicted in this change have been slower to materialize than predicted by models even though they have, otherwise been consistently insisting its coming

Tuesday: Very similar to yesterday. Recent extreme +AO drops to 0. Modest +NAO close to 0 and record -PNA to 0.  Not quite as cold as yesterday(at the end of 2 weeks at least) in my opinion, though the ng market has picked today to react higher. 

Wednesday: Recent +++AO continues to drop to 0. Recent +NAO drops to 0.  Recent record --PNA increases to 0.  So we go from record warm indices to neutral...........some weather models have not been as cold the past 24 hours, especially the much milder European model.               

Thursday: AO still drops to 0, some members a tad negative. Same with NAO. PNA increases to a tad positive.  Favors cooler temps but nothing extreme.

Friday: Recent extremes in these indices will move towards 0.

Saturday: Recent ++++AO continues to drop but stays slightly positive.......with huge spread, including a couple that are -AO. NAO drops a tad to near 0.  Record --PNA continues to increase to slight +PNA. The amount of spread and lack of agreement means uncertainty.

Sunday: AO stays positive today........less risk for major cold to come from high latitudes and be transported south to mid latitudes.  NAO around 0. PNA continues to increase and actually go positive for the first time in forever. The +PNA suggests ridge building in the West and maybe a mid latitude trough in the east that doesn't have much cold air. Potential for mild temps west and north, and chilly temp vs average south of that. 

Monday: AO now is forecast to STAY POSITIVE for the duration, which lessens risk for major cold outbreaks. NAO drops to near 0, while the PNA becomes positive for the first time in ages. This suggests mild temps over much of the country, especially West and North but chilly with respect to average in parts of the south. 

Tuesday: AO stays positive............lessens chances for bitter cold to get into the US. NAO close to 0. PNA slightly positive to near 0.

Thursday: The biggest case for NOT turning much colder continues to be the AO staying positive for the duration. This weakens air flow from high latitudes towards mid latitudes.......keeping the cold air locked up in the north. The NAO and PNA are pretty close to 0 and not a big consideration in leaning in any direction from those indice values. 

Friday: Again, the +AO suggests the models will be too cold and sure enough, they all turned MUCH milder the past 24 hours.  However, there were a few members that suggested an AO dropping to below zero late week 2 but all the models have been too cold, especially the Canadian model for the last month, so the milder shifts are in line with the model performance(poor recently).  PNA a slight + that favors warmer west vs slightly cooler east. NAO close to 0 or just above, also not a value that makes us think it will get and stay cold for very long............but the pattern may be unstable with a battle between the southern and northern stream unresolved. Yesterday, the northern stream was predicted to win in February. Today, it's the southern stream. 

Saturday: +AO still but some members a bit negative. Ideally would prefer a -AO to go with a cold February. NAO close to 0. PNA a bit positive with mild temps in the West.

Sunday: Still the +AO makes major, sustained cold less likely but huge spread with a  couple negatives making it uncertain. NAO and PNA not far from 0.

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:17 a.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2020, 10:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Previous comments:            

    Re: Re: Re: Weather Friday            

           

                By Jim_M - Jan. 17, 2020, 4:02 p.m.            

            

                      I hate the cold and as far as I'm concerned for NE Ohio, this has been a great winter so far.  Looking t the week3-4 map and the cold, winter is past the half way point.  

My concern is usually cold winters kill off bugs.  Could be a miserable summer for insects.

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


            

                                                  

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Friday            

            


                By metmike - Jan. 18, 2020, 8:18 a.m.            

            

Thank Jim.

Yes, we are past the halfway point of Winter weather.  Mild Winters do allow more living things to survive, including bugs. Cold is what kills most life prematurely on this planet. 

              +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Weather Saturday            

           

                By WxFollower - Jan. 18, 2020, 7:06 p.m.            

            


Mike said: "Saturday: Change from Friday!  Half the members greatly amplify the northern stream and are VERY cold. Even some cross polar flow on a few. The other half are very mild. The average has the ridge/west, trough east more amplified. Canadian model is by far the coldest model this morning. Other models are milder."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike,

 The CDN ensemble cold bias has been awful. Actually, all models have averaged too cold recently with the GFS ens being bad and even the Euro ens having some cold bias though the least of the three. But again, the CDN has been THE worst. You probably already realize this. I don't think the NG market takes it seriously, especially when it is cold on its own.

 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


metmike: I agree with that strongly Larry and glad you pointed it out so that I can mention it in my analysis. 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                                   

                Re: Weather Monday            

          

                By bear - Jan. 20, 2020, 4:49 p.m.            

            


weather here is low 70's,  nice, calm, overcast.  

a beautiful day to be outside, doing that home maintenance (which never seems to end).  

                     ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++               


                       Re: Re: Weather Monday            

          

                By metmike - Jan. 20, 2020, 5:39 p.m.            

            

Thanks bear!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


The climate prediction center's new

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Friday            

            

                By wxgrant - Jan. 24, 2020, 4:42 p.m.            

week 3-4 prediction is much warmer than the previous. Thinking they may also be cautious on the cold bias the models have shown all winter.                                       


           +++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                     

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Friday            

            


                By metmike - Jan. 24, 2020, 8:46 p.m.            

            

                               That makes sense Grant, great point.  In fact, they allude to that in their technical discussion:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/


" Although many of the tools including the Sub-X MME continue to indicate a colder outcome across the central and eastern CONUS, forecast confidence is reduced by recent poor model consistency and the likelihood for above-normal temperatures persisting through Week-2."

 

           ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Weather Friday            

            

                            By MarkB - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:50 a.m.            

            

When I was a young boy, in the 60's and early 70's, an old man was my mentor. In the year that I was to turn 16, he died two weeks before his 105th birthday. But I have always remembered his observation about winter. "If we have a mild winter before Christmas, then after Christmas would be extreme." At the time, he wasn't wrong. For I experienced many a winter that played out just like he had observed.


But things are different now.

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++


            

                Re: Re: Weather Friday            

            


                By metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 2:01 p.m.            

            


Wow! That guy must have had loads of wisdom to share. 

105 years old back then must have been 1 of the oldest people in the world!


I don't know of any scientific correlation that would support his observation  but often, old timers will remember things that repeat enough to identify things that scientists don't think or know about based on their book knowledge. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                                    


                                                                                       

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Saturday            

        

                By metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 6:42 p.m.            

            


Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice

The Stratospheric Polar Vortex is going to take a hit here in the medium-range under a displacement event off the North Pole. This is the most vulnerable we've seen the vortex so far this Winter. To be seen on how this evolves and what impacts it has on the pattern.

Image

                                    


            

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                  

                                                                                                                  

                Re: Weather Saturday            

            


                By WxFollower - Jan. 25, 2020, 6:57 p.m.            

            


 As of 12Z today, model HDDs are colder than 12Z yesterday by the following:

 EPS:  ~6

GEFS:~3

                                    


                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                                           

                Re: Re: Weather Saturday            

            


                By metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 8:16 p.m.            

            

                           

Thanks Larry,

I also noted the big swing colder today in the late period.

If that continues and actually happens,  the lows should be in for natural gas and we should open higher Sunday Night.

As always, the open will be subject to the potential of being of a greater magnitude higher or lower than one might guess based on just the change in weather.

I will guess that we might have traders that positioned the wrong side on Friday and want out or traders that want in..........period, at the market vs waiting to price.  

It makes sense too that after being closed 2 days, pent up buying/selling can get lopsided to one side and come out all at once, quickly on and shortly after the open.


On  your HDD's. Am I imagining it or don't you usually have a + sign when there are more heading degree days(colder)?

                                    


            +++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                

                Re: Weather Saturday            

      

                By WxFollower - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:01 p.m.            

            


Mike,

 Yes, but I prefaced it by saying colder than. There’s an implied + sign. I put the ~ with each because they’re approximate.

                                    


                      ++++++++++++++++++++++++++             

                Re: Re: Weather Saturday            

            


                By metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:33 p.m.            

            


I thought that was the case and am not questioning it other than wondering if it was my imagination or not(I get confused on stuff and didn't want to be confused).


It's always terrific to have your comments here  but on natural gas and weather, it's terrific to the 3rd power (-:

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++


                                                                                    

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Saturday            

            

                By metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:40 p.m.            

            


On the EPS, the 12z run went to 303 HDD's vs the previous 0z run at 290 HDD's.

That's a massive increase +13 HDD's  for an ensemble in just 12 hours. 

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++