When 40 million plus people drastically curtail traveling, not to mention the ripple affect outside that 40 million, how much less crude, unleaded, jet fuel are they not using?
It may take a couple weeks to know for sure, but it surely will be interesting to see how this affects almost all commodities.
It would seem we are at the very beginning of something here since the number of coronavirus cases seemingly doubled over night. Teachers are being told not to report to school until March. Large scale events are being cancelled. It will be interesting to watch.
Of course OPEC threw in their 2 cents, that it will little to no impact. (Rolling eyes here)
To say we are witnessing history might be a little strong, but between the quarentines and countries closing their borders, it is fascinating to watch it unfold.
I truly do hope it is over sooner than later though.
Thanks Jim,
No doubt this is serious and affecting China big time...........and that will surely show up in some short term economic and other measures but I am of the belief that its just a temporary blip down, followed be a resumption of life and where we were headed before this..........later this year.
They WILL have a vaccine, maybe in a few months. Then everybody gets inoculated and the virus dies out quickly.
Before then it can spread but this is not going to be like the 1918 world wide flu pandemic that killed 50,000,000 people. No way, no chance.
Vaccines did not exist to stop that one.
Also no antibiotics to treat the secondary infections.
a couple months back it looked like crude was trying to break out to the upside. then it reversed hard.
now it looks like it dropped too far too fast.
time to turn up?
Declining refinery rate, unleaded stocks still building, crude builds ….even though still lower than the 5 year levels. If it wasn't for Libya exports being restricted, I think we could be down another couple dollars.
I think that would make a great conversation point some day. With Iran sanctions and Venezuela limping along, where would we be if there were no Iran sanctions and Venezuela was exporting 2-3 million barrels a day?
You notice we never hear about spare capacity anymore? Or peak oil for that matter. An argument could be made between Iran, Venezuela, Libya and what OPEC took off the table, there is 10 million barrels a day being held back.