Simple(ton) Fundies - OJ's a BUY!
25 responses | 1 like
Started by hayman - Jan. 31, 2020, 9:08 a.m.

Corona Virus spreading

Vitamin C is antiviral

Unprecedented consumption of OJ imminent

You heard it here on the Weatherman's Forum first!

P.S. Up a penny currently from the time of posting!  From 99.15 May contract to 100.25 Never below a buck again, can you dig it? Forget NG and Gold. The run on OJ has kicked off, coincident with Super Bowl madness.  All alcoholic drinks will now be ordered with extra OJ in the mix. Anita Bryant and the orange juice ads from back when.  Have you had yours, today?

A Day Without OJ is a Day Without Sunshine

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2020, 11:14 a.m.
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Great selling point. 

You should be a spokesperson for one of the firms in the article below:

We Tried The Most Popular Orange Juices — And There Was A Clear Winner


Not all orange juices are created equal.


1  Tropicana






Our resident Floridian could tell it was Tropicana just by looking into her cup. A few tasters thought it was a bit too watery, but overall, this was the kind of classic OJ everyone craves.

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2020, 11:18 a.m.
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With OJ futures prices at multi year lows, it appears that OJ is not getting much respect.

The liquid...........................and the human OJ (-:

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Simpson, 72, is living in a Las Vegas golf community after serving nine years in a Nevada prison for leading five men, including two with guns, in a bid to retrieve personal items and memorabilia from two collectibles dealers in a Las Vegas hotel room.

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2020, 11:40 a.m.
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The total volume so far today for the March OJ contract is 287 contracts traded.

I remember one year almost 20 years ago when I bought 200 contracts of OJ on a Friday before a freeze threat in early January.  

The freeze did not do any damage/cold was less on Monday and I had to cover. Volume was thin back then but several times what it is today. 

OJ is $150/c for each contract.  200 contacts is $30,000/c

This must have been early 2004 because I was in close touch with Greenman in those days and he was curious how I was going to get out with the total volume in 1 day back then probably around 1,000 contracts. 

I just had to bite the bullet and take the loss ASAP to not make it even worse because the entire reason to be long was gone. 

Rather than just place a market order to sell everything, like would have been the case for any other market and know that big buy orders below would take care of me, I did price it at a price that I guessed could fill me.........well  below the known bids. 

Doing a market order on the open that big in oj could have caused it to open 10c lower and be a $300,000 loss. 

So obviously my order hit alot bids on the way down to  over 3c lower on the open. Luckily, prices had already plunged before that and there were some pretty big bids from entities that considered those low prices as value. 

My account was huge back then(not any more) but it took a nearly $90K hit that day because of being wrong about the weather in Florida. However, the question is often not did you make a really bad decision entering a trade but did you make a good decision exiting the position.

If OJ had come back to unch that day, after my order pressured the price lower on the open it would have been devastating. That's all I wanted that day.

"Please don't lget OJ come back now"  "Please don't let OJ come back now"

So OJ closed LOWER than the lowest price that I sold(to cover)  and I was happy.

OK, not exactly happy but happier than I was when the day started. 

By hayman - Jan. 31, 2020, 12:38 p.m.
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Dear Sir,

Your description of personal trading history is very moving, revealing and inspirational.  The thin markets are treacherous for any size position let alone one that is akin to daily volume.  And the dynamics when push come to shove can be gruesome. Obviously quick reaction and ability to accept reality are crucial to minimize the financial wound.  You so eloquently describe the emotional wounds that come from over leveraging. Orange juice abides by technicals from a distance, but when you get up close and personal, realize that the controlling faction can literally do what they want with you at any time.  The uncertainty is terrifying.  Your words may have saved my account.  If I listen to in between the lines well enough to hear! Thanks for the intimate reply...

While not weather related per se, the health climate of the world is experiencing a storm of horrifying proportion. Given your intense experience with the orange juice market, please contribute your talents to capitalize on the explosive potential currently existing at these depressed prices. It surely appears as a very limited risk opportunity given historical precedent. Perhaps you can regain the former trading glory for which you are intended. Bless You!

By hayman - Jan. 31, 2020, 1:58 p.m.
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Orange juice won’t save you from the flu, but the flu may save orange juice

"This isn’t the first time that orange juice sales have benefited from a flu outbreak. Back in 2009, an H1N1 (aka swine flu) outbreak lead to an 8% rise in orange juice sales"!

By metmike - Feb. 3, 2020, 1:53 p.m.
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The market is not listening.

OJ down to 94.35 a smidgen above life of contract lows from 1-22 at 94.25.

Closed almost on the lows.

Not looking so good but the heaviest pressure from negative seasonals may let up here pretty soon. I'll have to try to find a chart on that.

By metmike - Feb. 3, 2020, 1:58 p.m.
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OJ seasonals are strongest in Oct/Nov to the start of Dec.

Used to be called freeze premium ahead of the Winter in Florida but one of the many global warming benefits, includes much less freeze damage risk to crops in Florida during our Winter.

Frozen Concentrated OJ Futures (OJ) Seasonal Chart

By hayman - Feb. 3, 2020, 6:19 p.m.
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high volume (for OJ) spike within one minute as it broke to challenge contract low. A flush perhaps? Well, here we go.  A decisive point in time and price.  Much appreciate your interest. You ready to own , say, 10 to 20 lots at this tempting spot? I'm in for one and showing a $60 loss.  Ready to add on strength.  I'n not bullish, I'm goatish!

OJ not listening!?! Maybe tomorrow!  Take care Mr Chess Sensei~!~

Will post a chart that will show the juice's pulp after iI get back from feeding my feral cat colonies.

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 11:08 a.m.
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OJ spiked thru those life of contract lows (that had been holding as strong support for a very long time) on the open and hit a ton of stops, making a new low at 91.60.

That could serve as THE low if we can generate enough buying to close above the previous lows. 

I'm not in the  thinly traded OJ, since weather is not a factor(is bearish). my views are just looking at what everybody else sees on the charts. 

OJH is 93.00 last trade. 

By hayman - Feb. 4, 2020, 12:18 p.m.
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Opening first minute high volume flush of contract low. A normally quiet day's volume squeezed into the first one minute of trading. Bought a 2nd contract May at 97cent even to go with the previous 98.45 buy. Carrying a set of OJ balls now, the pair packing a $300 per penny punch.  Price has come back to barely breakeven 97.70.  Surely has all the earmarks of a cycle low node pinbar spike flush.  OJ is the last remaining "soft" commodity to show some pizzazz. Coffee's done it. Sugar and cocoa, obviously. Lumber definitely.  Cotton, for sure. If the masses turn to citrus for virus protection, well... If facemasks can sell out, surely OJ can fetch some demand.  Potentially can zoom back over a buck with a vengeance.  Has a real long congestion coil with alot of pent up energy to spring it. Fib retracements, even the minimal ones, portend a heck of a move.  Best of all, I relish that NO ONE is talking about the juice!  It's historically undervalued with both supply side and demand pressure bullish for the 2020 and 2021 ahead.

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 12:36 p.m.
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It does have the makings of a huge low hayman but we need to get back above those contracts lows.

Would be nice to see it today and have a reversal.

So far, ZERO follow thru to the downside breakout below those lows.

By hayman - Feb. 4, 2020, 2 p.m.
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Being probably the thinnest market out there, the lack of fluidity causes the price to move in fits and spurts.  That it pulled back and tried to test lows and failed might mean the bears might be pinched here.  Not necessarily today, but this week could evolve into a base that invokes weekly and monthly scale reversal dynamics.  If there is even a grain of connection between virus scare and OJ demand, as presumably been evident in the past... As a congestion coil breakout of a Bollinger band squeeze, the precursor is usually a violent whip in the opposite direction.  This morning's opening spike could certainly qualify.  This up move may begin gradually at first, in some ways laying an even better foundation.  Always wary of wild moves that tend to retrace fully, if not outright reverse.

By hayman - Feb. 4, 2020, 2:23 p.m.
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5 hour candles showing apparent green inverted hammer with stochastic rsi and stochastic momentum oscillators both poised to cross up out of oversold territory.  The settle is about 2 cents off the spike low.  May take a few days to unfold gradually. 

Have started a water only fast that began after a final meal of oatbran cereal with apple butter and half a dozen fried eggs over easy.  This last meal concluded on 31Jan20 at 9PM.  The expected benefits are improved immunity, reduced inflamation, autophagy stimulation, increased focus, energy and intuition.  Now, almost 90 hours in, definitely feel heightened awareness, less chronic arthritic pain, ease of mobility, a genuine desire to exercise and an intensity toward my price chart analysis.  Incorporating new indicators, backtesting and detailed journaling of trading ideas and outlooks.  Am supplementing with a tea brewed with a cocktail of medicinal herbs, notably clove, cardamom, Ceylon cinnamon, white tea, green matcha, dandelion root, ginger, shilajit, ginseng, yarrow, flowers, peppermint and rosehips.  Tinctures administered by dropper of Maitake mushroom, Lion's Mane mushroom, burdock root, echinacea, usnea lichen, pine pollen and ginko biloba also.  Honoring both the Corona wake up call and need to consistently win at trading futures.  Looking to take this about 10 days and wean off with bone broth for a few more.

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 3:04 p.m.
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Thanks for the wonderful analysis and charts hayman!

At least we closed well off the lows and didn't really have much follow thru after the plunge below previous contract lows. OJ came back a bit but ran into selling.....ran out of buyers when it approached the previous lows. 

However, a close below the previous contact low is not very bullish at the moment but its just 1 day.

Closing  back above those long lived, old lows would be bullish.

On the herbs and other stuff you are taking. WOW! That's alot of stuff. Thanks for sharing that with us.

No doubt you researched it and have a specific reason to take each one of them.

2 of my sisters do fasts and claim great benefits. I'm not advocating it but some people certainly benefit(especially if you're overweight-I have trouble keeping my weight up amazingly)

8 Health Benefits of Fasting, Backed by Science

By hayman - Feb. 4, 2020, 4:09 p.m.
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A 45 minute candle chart called equivolume whose candle width is measure of volume traded within that time interval.  Glaring is this morning's obese spiker that notched out a new contract low.

By 7475 - Feb. 4, 2020, 6:29 p.m.
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Enjoyed all that!


By hayman - Feb. 4, 2020, 10:34 p.m.
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A continuous chart of front month Orange Juice that is a close only line chart.  

By hayman - Feb. 4, 2020, 10:41 p.m.
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Daily March Orange Juice - Perfect Touch Points (so far) from the beginning of May 2019, 9 months

By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 9:47 p.m.
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We got back above the old lows today and closed there....just barely.

That's obviously a good sign that the price spike below those previous lows had no follow thru.

By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 8:12 p.m.
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Today was a potentially huge day for OJ!

After spiking below contract lows last week............with NO follow thru, then closing just above the old lows for the week, the Oj opened around unch and immediately spiked up almost 3c and stayed up there all day, closing near the highs.

Is this tied to expectations for the USDA crop report tomorrow or something else?

The negative seasonals start letting up around here(with much of the harvest wrapping up).

Hayman is looking good!

By cutworm - Feb. 10, 2020, 10:13 p.m.
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By hayman - Feb. 10, 2020, 11:41 p.m.
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MUSIC TO MY EARS:  Sing it, Jack!!!  

Softs Report  02/06/2020

Jack Scoville -    The PRICE Futures Group -  Thu Feb 6, 8:29AM CST

General Comments: FCOJ was mostly lower, but March managed to close a little higher. Trends turned back down and the charts suggest that lower prices will be the feature of the market for quite a while. No real change was noted in the fundamentals of big supplies and bad demand. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year and harvest of non Valencia types of fruit is very active. Some flowering for the next crop is being seen. Consumer demand has been lacking on the ideas of higher prices for FCOJ and on health concerns. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.

By hayman - Feb. 11, 2020, 12:03 a.m.
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"Bottom Pickers & Gamblers!"  

Blue Line Breakfast Report - OJ - February 11

   Phillip Streible -    Blue Line Futures -  Mon Feb 10, 5:17PM CST

Orange Juice (-1.5% ytd)

The Juice is loose with a 3.58% gain on the day and the best performing commodity. I suspect this was stale money in a short position that is looking for more return somewhere else. If we get another sizable move higher Tuesday, this might attract the bottom pickers and gamblers to the long side.

By metmike - Feb. 12, 2020, 1:14 a.m.
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OJ managed to close higher again on Tuesday.

By metmike - March 1, 2020, 5:06 p.m.
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May OJ went down to new contract lows last week by several cents.

Previous low was 95.55, we hit 92.15 Thu and Fri but had a huge bounce/reversal on Friday and closed just above the previous lows.

Closing at 95.70.

Is this a solid bottom?

March is often a strong month for OJ prices but the Coronavirus news and panic is completely controlling most of the markets............and its been very bad.

The news is going to get worse before it gets better...... for sure but when will the market stop panicking and stop way over reacting?