INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 5, 2020, 8:07 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, February 5, 2020 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 606.2)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +7.2%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 313.7)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +5.3%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 2401.5)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)



8:15 AM ET. January ADP National Employment Report



                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +156000; previous +202000)



8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -48.4B; previous -43.09B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 208.63B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +0.7%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 251.72B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous -1.0%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refundingannouncement



9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 52.8)



10:00 AM ET. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.0; previous 55.0)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 57.2)



                       Prices Idx (previous 58.5)



                       Employment Idx (previous 55.2)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 54.9)



10:00 AM ET. December Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 431.654M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.548M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 261.235M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.203M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 144.747M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.289M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.2%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.638M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.866M)

                       

11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 52.1)



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



Thursday, February 6, 2020 



7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -26%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 216K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -7K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1703000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -44K)



8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs



                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +1.6%; previous -0.3%)



                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +3.6%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1378.3K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 471.7K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 647.3K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2746B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -201B)

                       

12:00 AM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, February 7, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +158K; previous +145K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.32)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.03)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.11%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +6K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +139K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.1%)



3:00 AM ET. December Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +12.51B)



Monday, February 10, 2020 



9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting



10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 109.68)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



  N/A              U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2021 Budget


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply higher in overnight trading as it extends Tuesday's rally into new uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9462.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8793.29.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3223.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, January's high crossing at 3335..0 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3335.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3223.92. Second support is the January 8th low crossing at 3183.70.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-27.  



March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.000 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.271. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.000.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.45. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 49.31. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.



March heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 145.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 167.17 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 167.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178.21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 156.84. Second support is monthly support crossing at 145.80.     



March unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 150.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.12. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08. 



March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.968 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.968. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.131. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.804. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the October 8th high crossing at 98.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.17. Second support is the January 16th low crossing at 96.81.  



The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 110.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.13. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 110.24. Second support is October's low crossing at 110.14.    



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3225 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0285 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at 1.0444 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0444. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0272. Second is the December 24th low crossing at 1.0233.  



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the November low crossing at 75.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.06. First support is Monday's low crossing at 75.16. Second support is November's low crossing at 75.09.  



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 0.0909 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 0.0932 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. If April renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1526.30.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935.



March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $258.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $258.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $270.65. First support is Monday's low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally high in quiet trading overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. Thehigh-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $4.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.66 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.66. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.49 3/4. Second support is the December 23rd low crossing at $5.40. 

   

March Kansas City Wheat closed up a $0.00-1/2-cent at $4.67 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.65 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness into early-February. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.84 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.84 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.65 1/4. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 4.57.    



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.88 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.    



March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $297.30 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 293.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $297.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $287.10. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.    



March soybean oil was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 31.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.45. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.45 at $56.75. 



February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's gap crossing at $61.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's gap crossing at $61.30. Second resistance is last-Thursday's gap crossing at 64.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at $54.68. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.   



February cattle closed down $0.05 at $121.62. 



February cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends a five-day trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $119.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.71. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $127.55. First support is Monday's low crossing at $120.72. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $119.22.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.85-cents at $137.50. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.58 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $137.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.58. First support is Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.03 would confirm that a low has been posted.



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.43 is the next upside target.           



March sugar posted a downside reversal and closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.35 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. 



March cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 5, 2020, 12:01 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!


Increased Rains in the forecast today for week 2 in dry S.Brazil.(RGD). Most other places getting good rains.

Much milder overnight weather is bearish for natural gas but it may be tough to push to new lows at this time of year and at these prices with fundamentals (outside of wx) possibly turning more bullish.