KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 7, 2020
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +158K; previous +145K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.32)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.11%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +2.9%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +6K)
Private Payroll (previous +139K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.1%)
3:00 AM ET. December Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +12.51B)
Monday, February 10, 2020
9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting
10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 109.68)
ETI, Y/Y%
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2021 Budget
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the December 27th low crossing at 8925.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9462.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 27th low crossing at 8925.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8814.97.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above January's high crossing at 3334.30 has renewed the rally off October's low into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3228.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3345.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3228.74. Second support is January's low crossing at 3183.70.
The Dow closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29,408.05. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,940.69. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28,169.53.
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March T-bonds closed up 8/32's at 161-12.
March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-02 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 164-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 164-05. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-18.
March T-notes closed unchanged at 130.175.
March T-notes closed unchanged on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.026 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.026. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.026.
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March crude oil closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.03 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.03. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 49.52. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.
March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.87 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends this year's decline, the June 2017-low crossing at 156.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 166.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.87. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 156.84 Second support is the June 2017-low crossing at 156.49.
March unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 154.61 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 154.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157.40. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.955 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 21st gap crossing at 1.977. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.118. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.804. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 98.74 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.45. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 98.74. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.81.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 109.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.48. First support is today's low crossing at 109.89. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.22.
The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday marking a downside breakout of the December-February trading range crossing at 1.2940. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2932. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0289 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0444. Second resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.0461. First support is the December 24th low crossing at 1.0233. Second support is the December 24th low crossing at 1.0233.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 75.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.05. First support is today's low crossing at 75.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 75.09.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 0.0909 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 0.0932 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing 0.0909. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0906.
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April gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. If this support level is broken, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1528.30 is the next downside target. If April resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1528.30.
March silver closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 18.375 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the January 18th low crossing at 16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 17.280. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at 16.935.
March copper closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 257.21 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.53. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at 248.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31.
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March Corn closed down a $0.00 1/2-cents at 3.80 1/4.
March corn closed fractionally lower on Thursday while extending the December-February trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $3.75 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at $3.71. Closes above January's high crossing at $3.94 are needed to confirm an upside trading range breakout while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat closed down $0.05 3/4-cents at $5.56 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $6.13 3/4 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December 24th low crossing at $5.38 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $6.13 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.50 1/2. Second support is the December 24th low crossing at $5.38 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.06-cents at $4.67 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.83 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.66 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness into early-February. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.83 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.66 3/4. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 4.57.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.32 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.46 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.46 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
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March soybeans closed up $0.03-cents at $8.83.
March soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.85 1/2 would temper this year's decline. If March extends this year's decline, last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.07 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $1.50 at $288.90.
March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $292.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.60. First support is today's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil closed down 4-pts. at 31.28.
March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 32.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.28. First support is Monday's low crossing at 29.81. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54.
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April hogs closed up $3.00 at $64.88.
April hogs closed limit up on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's gap crossing at $65.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's gap crossing at $65.82. Second resistance is last-Thursday's gap crossing at 68.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $0.58 at $119.75.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $128.30. First support is today's low crossing at $118.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.23-cents at $135.90.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.58 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $138.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.58. First support is Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
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March coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.80 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed sharply higher on Thursday and renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.47 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Natural gas weather was leaning bearish in the morning but guidance since then is a bit less bearish.
The market is not trading weather in SA right now even though this is a key time frame for beans in ARG and S.Brazil-pod fill.