Corona Virus
36 responses | 0 likes
Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-grips-china/


If we are looking at a bio-lab catastrophe here, it seems likely the catastrophe was caused by genetic tampering gone wrong. What happens to Chinese people, vaccinated with SARS vaccine, who are then re-exposed to a coronavirus? Is this what is making this coronavirus so deadly? Or, is it deadly? Is it deadly only in Chinese? Have any non-Chinese died? The literature on 2019 n-CoV does not reflect catastrophic pathogenicity that would explain events in China. We must also factor in that we don’t know what the true death toll is, nor can we know who to trust. We are dealing with the nation of China; a communist authoritarian society not well known for truthfulness in information, especially when that information could be detrimental to their image.


Whatever is going on, it sure is causing economic chaos. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 1:37 p.m.
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Despite being bombarded with scary Coronavirus news daily, let's use some  unemotional math(calculus) to show you that the new cases and deaths may be DEcelerating and the rate of  spread is being contained/is slowing. 


First, the math lesson for those that like calculus:

Inflection point

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflection_point

 For a curve given by parametric equations, a point is an inflection point if its signed curvature changes from plus to minus or from minus to plus, i.e., changes sign.

For a twice differentiable function, an inflection point is a point on the graph at which the second derivative has an isolated zero and changes sign.

 

Plot of f(x) = sin(2x) from −π/4 to 5π/4; the second derivative is f″(x) = –4sin(2x), and its sign is thus the opposite of the sign of f. Tangent is blue where the curve is convex (above its own tangent), green where concave (below its tangent), and red at inflection points: 0, π/2 and π


You may connect better to this explanation.

Inflection Points 

https://www.mathsisfun.com/calculus/inflection-points.html

An Inflection Point is where a curve changes from  Concave upward to Concave downward (or vice versa)

So what is  concave upward / downward ?

Concave upward is when the slope increases: concave upward slope increases
Concave downward is when the slope decreases: concave downward slope decreases



Now the Corona Virus graph

This is updated every day after the Feb. 8 date of this particular post, so comments on Feb 8, are relevant only  to the graph at that point-additional comments are added below with the fresh updates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.[112]


You will note on the graph above that the slope is DECREASING(rate of increase is slowing down) for daily NEW cases reported and also of daily new deaths.

The flattening out of the slope is a feature of being concave downward(in calculus). If we were to assume that these numbers are accurate and will continue on that path, the concave downward projection is on its way to new daily cases actually going down consistently. 

Going from the initial, extremely steep slope of increasing reports............and unreliable information that maintained for around the first 12 points on the graph  out of 23 points.

The last  11 black dot points on the graph are clearly rising at a much slower rate. 


ps: I should note that the plot of cases and deaths is on a semi-logarithic graph, which is needed because the changes/data going from small to much larger numbers. Using linear values for both axis(y is vertical) would have required massive height to the graph(Y axis) to be more useful or else the lower numbers to the left would not have shown up well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot

In science and engineering, a semi-logarithmic or semi-log graph or plot has one axis on a logarithmic scale, the other on a linear scale. It is useful for data with exponential relationships, or where one variables covers a large range of values

By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 1:41 p.m.
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This doctor understands it!!

OPINION

Published

Dr. Robert Siegel: Coronavirus epidemic could be contained in months – Global pandemic unlikely

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/dr-robert-siegel-coronavirus-epidemic-could-be-contained-in-months-global-pandemic-unlikely

The most encouraging news comes from looking at the rate of increase in the epidemic – the shape of the epidemic curve. It appears that a turning point (the so-called “inflection point”) has already been reached. This is the place where the curve starts to flatten out, signaling that control may be in sight.

By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 1:54 p.m.
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So put the speculative,  very alarming stories like these from CNN in context based on facts that you just read. 



The coronavirus is already hurting the world economy. Here's why it could get really scary


https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/business/coronavirus-global-economy/index.html


China has deadliest day for coronavirus as US national becomes first foreigner to die

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/asia/coronavirus-deaths-china-intl-hnk/index.html


metmike: While nobody knows for sure what this will be like in a month or later this year, keep in mind that the journalists at the MSM are paid to increase ratings/circulation. Not only are they not scientists or doctors themselves, they are often not even able to discern between legit science/medicine and will most often, go with the views that sensationalize the story. 

Of course they would. These are not non profit businesses. Ratings determine profits and there is no business that would forego profitable opportunies(like exploiting the coronavirus coverage to the max).

They frequently have altruistic motives...........based on their personal belief system that they impose on everybody else that uses them for a source of news. 

By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 2:17 p.m.
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Some previous threads/discussions on the Corona Virus:

               



    Coronavirus                    

                28 responses |              

                Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/



                China finds virus code                        

                11 responses |             

                Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/


 Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World            

                            8 responses |                

                Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/




By pj - Feb. 8, 2020, 2:42 p.m.
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"They frequently have altruistic motives..." 

Don't you mean "ulterior motives"?

By wglassfo - Feb. 8, 2020, 3:57 p.m.
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Hi Mike

Your info is already out of date

The info given us did show a down ward slope but then went back up yesterday if I have the correct time zones from where I am posting

We can also assume with a great deaL OF CONFIDENCE THAT CHINA IS NOT TELLING US THE TRUTH

oTHER WISE THEY WOULD ALLOW EVERYBODY WITH expertise to enter the country and examine/have a look etc to determine how extensive the problem might be, and find a solution. Their initial code was wrong and debunked so what else is new.

If you are using numbers from WHO or china then your post is worthless/not reliable

I did not read all the info but I doubt any info came from some body from the west who was actually on the ground in china, and can verify the numbers china gives us

Heck they don't even have enough testing kits so how can they report when they can't do proper testing.

50-60-100 million on lock down. What numbers should we believe?? From a communist country that might have a lot to hide from the world

How many testing klts does Africa have???

Don't get me wrong Mike

I don't think it is as serious as we are told, as of now, in the west

But we simply can not believe china so what should we believe. Your info?? The WHO organization that gets it's info from China???

IMHO there is no reliable info

Sorry about the caps. my bad

By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 4:54 p.m.
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"They frequently have altruistic motives..." 

Don't you mean "ulterior motives"?


Hi pj

I really did mean altruistic motives.


No doubt there are also ulterior  motives sometimes but also, simultaneously with altruistic motives.


A large % of journalists/tv news anchors are progressive liberals. 

Why is that we might ask?

Progressive activists want to change the world for the better (defined by their personal belief system) and reporting the news to millions, when you are the media,  is the best way to project your messages(with mostly altruistic motives) to people on a large scale.

It would be crazy to think that CNN's news anchors, or NYT editors for instance got into the business because they wanted to mess up the world or be dishonest in their reporting.  

It's just the opposite, they did it with altruistic motives. However, their belief systems and cognitive bias's as humans causes them to interpret the news thru their subjective prisms, then project it  in their reporting, often unintentionally. This sends out messages, embedded within the stories that they write/report on, which imposes their belief system on those that use them for a news source.

Here's a great, real life example of somebody that got into the business entirely with altruistic motives.

I was the main weather anchor at WEHT in Evansvile IN for 11 years. Out of 4 news directors that we had during that time frame, the best one was John Hmurovich.

He started as a reporter years earlier(which is often where the main news anchors start their careers)  but was not cut out to be a main news anchor. 

Extremely smart and understood the tv news business but his leadership skills were unparalleled from the standpoint that he focused on ethical things that really mattered, including treating his employees with respect and kindness vs pushing ratings non stop.

He was not into sensationalizing the news for ratings but instead in telling it honestly and rooting out injustices.  I think that most reporters and then news anchors start with this mindset............but some begin to lose touch with that idea. 

News directors go to a different level because they have to answer to the General Manager and the owner.............who usually care most about ratings and profits.

What happens with most news directors, is that shortly after moving up to that position, they adjust their priorities because they are now evaluated/judged with more scrutiny by their bosses based on the bottom line........ratings, which helps determine the price they can charge for commercials and thus, how much money they make. 

A news director with plummeting news ratings will get no sympathy if the reason is that they are being more honest with the news or the news is making the world a better place vs making the station a more profitable place(for the owner) with sensationalized news.

Just after 2 years with John as our News Director, he got us all together and told everybody that he was resigning. This was horrible news. He was the best. However, we were still a very strong #2 in the market(for ratings) and the owner was apparently on him relentlessly  about making us #1 and ratings. 

The ratings business and competition in tv is extremely cut throat in certain markets.  He knew that the quality of our product/news was top notch, ethical and had other things in mind rather than sensationalizing for ratings.

So John told us that when he started in the business it was entirely to try to use his position to try to make the world a better place..............which is purely altruistic and why I used that word earlier. When he was promoted from reporter to news director, it empowered him even more to try to accomplish that.........which is why he accepted that position.

Well, during his 2 years working as news director, he was constantly informed that, NO, his job was not to try to make the world a better place, it was to increase ratings and make more money for Jim Gilmore, the owner. 

His wife Bev had a high paying job at Bristol Myers. They both decided to quit their jobs to go to one of the country's in the Eastern Europe block that left communism in the late 1980's to teach them capitalism and democracy. 

Wow! Both dropping important, high paying jobs in order to do something else for a fraction of the monetary compensation that they thought would make the world a better place. 


https://origins.osu.edu/article/1989-twenty-years-end-communism-and-fate-eastern-europe


John was a quintessential example of somebody with altruistic motives that I think defines most progressive liberals who get into the business of reporting the news. 

But John was not willing to sacrifice his ethical standards to accommodate the ones above him (who are in it to make money).

Many people in news, weather and sports feel pressured at times to adjust what they do so that its in sync with the profit motive. 

Just the fact that their jobs completely depend on it.

You can bet that Alex the Anchor with a 80% favorable rating on the #1 newscast can have that job forever and demand the highest salary as long as those numbers hold up.

Angie the Anchor, on the other hand, with a 65% favorable rating on the #2 newscast will not only get paid less, she will constantly be pushed to get those numbers higher.

If those numbers dropped to 61%, for example and her news to #3,.....and stayed down there for numerous periods or even dropped more, it's likely that she would become Angie  the ex-anchor. 

No matter what the quality of her work was. 

By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 10:13 p.m.
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"Your info is already out of date"

That info is updating automatically every day Wayne, including thru today February 8, 2020 in this thread and all the threads at Marketforum with it.

Test me on that.

Come back tomorrow and you should see that its updated thru Feb 9th.

On Monday, it will be updated thru Feb 10th. 


So pull up this post in 24 hours and see if the data isn't 1 day fresher. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.


While nobody knows everything for sure about the Coronavirus and how much worse it will get, its been with us now long enough now to know many things with at least moderate confidence.............which are all consistent with everything that I've been stating here for 3 weeks.

People continue to use uncertainty as a reason to push wild speculation into the land of  alarmism instead of basing things on KNOWN facts. 

By wglassfo - Feb. 9, 2020, 4:13 a.m.
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If these are all known facts

Why is the CDC not allowed to confirm the 'known" numbers

813 deaths according to that info  -- 09

Many from china on social media say the numbers are much higher

In fact no information was kept of many earlier deaths, family members have no access to deceased, etc.

And we are expected to believe these numbers that come from china???

The country that punished the doctors for spreading false information??

The virus that is already worse in many ways than SARS and china tried to cover it up

By wglassfo - Feb. 9, 2020, 4:41 a.m.
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89

The biggest one day increase yet

Maybe tomorrow will be 79

So we can say the down ward spiral is intact




By kermit - Feb. 9, 2020, 9:27 a.m.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GevcUNJNrDI


scarry if 10 percent of this is rite

By kermit - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:37 a.m.
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If  the above violates protocol , my apologies and please delete

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 12:42 p.m.
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kermit,

Absolutely no violation or anything close to it.  We are grateful to you for posting on this stuff thats out there. Post on it all you want.

Violations are basically for personal attacks on fellow posters, unacceptable language or for posts that are offensive using hate speech intended to offend others here. 

Everything else goes here. 

I especially like opinions and  information that are different than mine.  It gives me an opportunity to think about other points of view, then evaluate authentic data to try to discern the truth.

On this particular topic, we don't know the complete truth yet. 

We have the data and information that has been given to us ............which is telling us many important things..........that I am trying to communicate in my posts.

There are still enough unknowns to allow for wild speculation of really bad scenarios and bad origins/intents.

As more information comes in, the speculation about scary outcomes should go down but I appreciate VERY MUCH you posting speculative information. Sometimes, it turns out to be right.

Appreciate you asking and not wanting to violate rules.

Just that comment of yours tells us that you have the mindset of somebody that we want to encourage to post here even more!!

By wglassfo - Feb. 9, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
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HI Mike

Remember way back, when you asked me where am I getting my info

I had posted information, not known to you or many others

Then it became known as mostrly true info I had posted

Now you are posting info that is essentially coming from china as being the true situation

Now I realize the MSM has an agenda and is not a good source of info

But the above post should make you ask yourself if your info is accurate

You are using china info

China seems to have a really good reason to not want outside experts in china

The above post may not be completely accurate as a fair amount of opinion is scattered through out

However, a different story is beginning to emerge

That being that china does not want outside experts to dig around in this virus, or their country

You should ask yourself why and stop posting info from china as the ultimate truth

China may appreciate people like you to spread their propaganda, 

Who knows, I don't

And I hope you realize your posts are about on the same level of truth as the MSM in this situation

 WHO and CDC has asked to be allowed inside china and told no way that will happen

But you post info from WHO which is probably not accurate

There are simply too many holes in the china story to be believable

Such as the new cases being reported as being the same yesterday and today. Is that possible??

Does any of this make you ask, the truth of your information sources and your posts

By wglassfo - Feb. 9, 2020, 5:06 p.m.
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I believe I posted that china won't do much for the common person

That post was not well worded

New information indicates that the upper echelon of party officials must be protected, then lower officials and the common person is not very important, in that order

We can now safely assume these new hospitals, with bars on the windows are nothing but a giant incubator where people simply go to die

That cruise ship is also an incubator for the virus, although one cruise ship did leave port

Sealing off large portions of the population, will not work but that is what communism usually thinks or acts

The lower common person has no rights

Will we lose our rights in the name of supposed greater security from outside threat???

Typical case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, according to the people on the cruise ship or many cities in china

I also posted people can not survive in a house with out food, water etc and now we have rumours of people being shot leaving the house in search of food or water

Could you store 3 days of water in your house. Many could but seems like some can't

China is doing everything wrong for one reason

I think a giant cover up of a bio weapon

Why else refuse access from the CDC of WHO into china

By GunterK - Feb. 9, 2020, 6:37 p.m.
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go to the lower part of the linked articles, and find lots of videos directly from China

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 8:35 p.m.
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Wayne,

Where the heck are you getting this from? 

Again, you are welcome to say crazy, completely unsubstantiated things here based on wild speculation of the unknown but I am just asking for the evidence...........if you want me to take it seriously.


For instance:

"We can now safely assume these new hospitals, with bars on the windows are nothing but a giant incubator where people simply go to die"

How can this be if 2-3% of people infected die(mostly sick and elderly) and the other 97-98% recover.  Unless, as suggested from that statement that almost everybody that gets the virus dies and China is just hiding it.............but wait, we know with absolute certainty that can't be and doesn't make any sense Wayne because people outside of China have been infected and its not spreading and killing outside of China in the manner that you seem to want to believe is really happening in China but is being covered up.

Is the entire world covering up for China?


"now we have rumours of people being shot leaving the house in search of food or water"

Really? What are the sources?


"You should ask yourself why and stop posting info from china as the ultimate truth

China may appreciate people like you to spread their propaganda"

I've been accused of a lot of things, usually in my mission to bust propaganda but this is the first time I am accused of actually spreading propaganda........from China.

Don't  worry Wayne. I'm not offended nor do I take it personal. I'm just providing the most reliable information the world has right now, along with unemotional interpretations that include perspective and common sense along with comparisons to the MUCH more serious threat to us in North American, the flu.

Is all this information accurate or perfect or complete?  Probably not but as a scientist, I'm trying to use the best information out there and apply known principles of  science, biology, medicine and in this case................human psychology and the overpowering tendency thru all of time for humans to magnify their fears of the unknown multiple times greater than the actual risk is.

I can't think of any recent scares that turned out much worse than anybody expected but maybe this will be the one. 

I have zero opinion on the origin of this virus. Maybe the Chinese did cause it...........maybe they didn't.  There isn't enough information that I can interpret to know with confidence either way. I will wait for more facts before taking an opinion.

On the rest of it, where I have expressed an opinion, the facts since then have been consistent with my original thoughts.  When those facts change, I'll immediately adust my opinion/projections.


Here's another reality check regarding some of the extreme statements..........that for some reason get believed like they are gospel with zero evidence. 

Gunter just posted a source that states this:

"Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected."

OK, this more than 50 times higher than the numbers the Chinese are telling us about. I think that its very likely that the Chinese are not being completely honest and the real numbers are higher(but we only have the numbers that we have Wayne) but it would be ludicrous, to base things off of 1 persons extreme, speculative statement with no evidence to substantiate it.

If you do the math Wayne, even with those  higher numbers, the fatality rate is still just 3%, so the Chinese are certainly not sending people to incubators to die, when almost everybody is recovering.

People outside of China with the virus are not dying at a rate any higher than that, so with extraordinarily high confidence, we can say that..........unless the virus mutates into something else, it is NOT going to start killing people at a higher rate than that.

Maybe the virus is more contagious then what we are being told. We will see but again, this is what to compare it to:

Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914


But the flu isn't scary because we've lived(and died) with it all of our lives.

The coronavirus appears to be like a very bad strain of the flu virus. Whether it was created or morphed from an animal................the effect on humans will be the same. The treatments will be the same. The vaccine will be the same. 

Clearly it's causing chaos in China, the world's most populous country right now. That by itself is rattling the markets and a legit cause of concern. But it doesn't change the scientific facts about what it is and what it will do.

Those are not all known for sure................except the fatality rate is not likely to be much higher than 3% and it appears that we may be close to the peak in the increasing rate of it spreading and killing. 

Wayne, don't confuse that with the number of deaths and newly infected going down..........that won't  happen for awhile yet(nor would it be expected to for at least another month or 2). What that means is that the increase in the daily numbers, over time may not be as big of an increase as previous days.

Example for you:

If we go from 10,000 to 11,000 to 12,200 to 13,500 to 15,000, there is an increase and also an increase in the rate of the daily increase....because the + change is greater every day.

Then, if we go from 15,000 to 16,500, to 17,800 to 19,000 to 20,000 the changes in those numbers show a DECREASE in the rate of daily increase. ..because the +change is LESS than the change from the previous day. 

If this is what we are seeing, then its a good sign(and earlier than expected). Those were just hypothetical numbers to illustrate the point but it will take a long time for the daily increases to actually be lower than the day before, which would be like going from 20,000 to 19,900 to 19,700, to 19,400 to 19,000. 


I am very grateful to you guys for posting this stuff here. Please continue to do so as I'm certain that others are reading the same things that you do and feel the exact same way.



By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 1:08 p.m.
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Just passing on the latest scary headlines:

Coronavirus kills 97 people in one day, while cruise ship cases almost double

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-10-20-intl-hnk/index.html


Trump again suggests warm weather could weaken coronavirus

From CNN's Kevin Liptak

"President Trump repeated his belief that a coronavirus outbreak in China could subside when temperatures rise with the changing seasons, despite expert opinion that it’s too early to make such a linkage.

Speaking to US governors at the White House, Trump said the temperature issue arose last week in his telephone conversation with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

“The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus,” Trump said, citing an assessment Xi offered him over the phone.

“That would be a good thing,” Trump went on.

Earlier, Trump said “a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat.”

More on this: Trump first raised his theory about coronavirus and warmer weather in a tweet last week. Afterward, infectious disease experts told CNN that it's too early to say whether warmer temperatures would weaken the virus.

"It would be reckless to assume that things will quiet down in spring and summer," said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Texas.

"We don't really understand the basis of seasonality, and of course we know we absolutely nothing about this particular virus," Hotez said.

"


metmike: Interesting that their intent is to make Trump look bad and as if he is saying things that he doesn't have a clue about............but there's a very high chance that he's exactly right and is one of the BEST informed on this based on the known science. 


Study Shows Why the Flu Likes Winter


https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/health/research/05flu.html

Flu season in northern latitudes is from November to March, the coldest months.

By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 1:20 p.m.
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metmike: Low moisture/humidity, which is what we get inside during the Winter after taking in the cold dry air outside and heating it up = VERY favorable for virus survival.

Higher moisture environments, which exist with warmer temperatures because they can hold com much more moisture = VERY UNfavorable for virus survival.

When it warms up in the northern hemisphere this Spring and especially into Summer's heat, the environment will likely become VERY UNfavorable for the Coronavirus.


FYI: Why Is There A Winter Flu Season?


https://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-01/fyi-why-winter-flu-season/


How Humidity Might Help The Flu Travel


How Humidity Affects Virus Survival



Guinea Pig Experiment

By wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 1:38 p.m.
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HI Mike

I am waiting for you to understand that china info which WHO reports is unreliable

Who is on the ground but nobody knows if they are sworn to secrecy.

Just a guess on my part

I am not saying this is the worst pandemic ever, just that china is/has been trying to distort the truth

The doctor that died is exhibit A

If you want to know why, it's the chinese economy and the politburo hold on power that is at risk

Several factors, that make no sense, too numerous to post will become evident in due coarse

Are we seeing the tip of the ice burg , I do not have an answer to that question


Time will tell

By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:18 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 10:53 a.m.
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Coronavirus emergency 'holds a very grave threat' for world: WHO

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/coronavirus-emergency-holds-a-very-grave-threat-for-world-who-idUSKBN2050YV

World News

February 11, 2020 /  

GENEVA (Reuters) - China’s coronavirus outbreak poses a “very grave threat for the rest of the world”, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday in an appeal for sharing virus samples and speeding up research into drugs and vaccines.

WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was addressing the start of a two-day meeting aimed at accelerating development of drugs, diagnostics and vaccines against the flu-like virus amid growing concerns about its ability to spread. 

To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said. 

“With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” he told more than 400 researchers and national authorities,

“We hope that one of the outcomes of this meeting will be an agreed roadmap for research around which researchers and donors will align,” Tedros told the closed-door meeting, according to remarks made available by the U.N. agency. 

“The bottom line is solidarity, solidarity, solidarity. 

FILE PHOTO: Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus speaks during a news conference after a meeting of the Emergency Committee on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Geneva, Switzerland January 30, 2020. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

That is especially true in relation to sharing of samples and sequences,” Tedros said. “To defeat this outbreak, we need open and equitable sharing, according to the principles of fairness and equity.” 

By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 11:07 a.m.
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Wayne,

While you don't have to do this, it makes it much easier to follow if you make your new posts about the Coronavirus(and other stuff) under threads that are already actively discussing that topic. 

Otherwise, like we have now, there are  a handful of threads going at the same time and each of them is discussing the same thing, like the list below.

This is just a suggestion but especially when the points in the new thread have already been covered and discussed in old threads. It's ok to make old points again if you want to and its great to post anything that you want as long as you are not making personal attacks or using inappropriate language. 


                Where does my info come from            

                            6 responses |                

                Started by wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:42 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47204/

 Coronavirus                    

                28 responses |              

                Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/



                China finds virus code                        

                11 responses |             

                Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/


 Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World            

                            8 responses |                

                Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/

             

   Corona  Virus            

            

                21 responses |                

                Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47120/


By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 3:12 p.m.
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                 U.S. Stocks Rise as Rate of New Coronavirus Cases Slows            

Updated Feb. 11, 2020 2:59 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-rise-as-rate-of-new-coronavirus-cases-slows-11581417859

By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 3:17 p.m.
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I'm adding this post from another thread yesterday because its important to make the point to those that may have missed it:


                Re: Re: Re: Where does my info come from            

            


                By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 7:03 p.m.            

            

Let me help you out with additional information Wayne, although you've decided from the get go to ignore my reality posts and to instead, believe the most extreme, alarmist, speculative stories.


1.  You referred to the increased levels of CO2 from burning bodies as evidence of a million bodies being secretly burned, your quote: reporting possibly 1.5 million cremated in china First of all, the increase is in SO2, sulfur dioxide not carbon dioxide, CO2. 

2. Wuhan is home to the huge steel mills of the world’s second largest producer, the China Baowu Steel Group, which merged with Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation in 2016. Steel mills emit tremendous amounts of SO2.  A picture of Wuhan from a year ago would probably show the same thing.............from the steel  mills!


This is the picture below circulating around which supposedly shows the evidence of all those bodies being cremated. Note the peak value in SO2 of 1351. Is this from cremating bodies?

Answer below.

                                  china burning people              

                                                                               

If this is from burning bodies, then Russia is burning even more bodies than China! Note the peak value of 1627 from today at Norilsk Russia below. 

      

                       Jan Eskil Flåm                    @FlamJan     

Check out Norilsk in Russia, then stop pushing this agenda ... its just idiotic.

                     2                     

         

metmike: So Wayne and others, these plants are burning tons of coal which releases massive amounts of SO2!  A picture of this same spot from 2019, a year ago would likely have shown the same thing. 

As the 2nd largest steel producer in the world. Wuhan alone accounts for 85KT of SO2 output a year, which is (on average) 162kg a minute. Every single minute.


     Report on the Environment  / Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

file:///C:/Users/Basement/Downloads/SO2-emissions.pdf

"Sulfur dioxide (SO2) belongs to the family of sulfur oxide (SOx) gases. These gases are formed when fuel containing sulfur (mainly coal and oil) is burned (e.g., for electricity generation) and during metal smelting and other industrial processes. High concentrations of SO2 are associated with multiple health and environmental effects. The highest concentrations of SO2 have beenrecorded in the vicinity of large industrial facilities"


                                    


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Where does my info come from            

           

                By metmike - Feb. 10, 2020, 7:13 p.m.            

            


It really is sad that unreliable sources with these insane speculative theories and alarmist stories get online to scare people.

This person covers it well:


No, Open Source Data Does Not Show China Burning People – But Supply Chains are Being Roiled

https://www.cbronline.com/opinion/china-burning-people-conspiracy


"(Social media amplification has, meanwhile, made it clear that the old dictum “a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on” is no longer enough: a lie circumvents the world several times before the truth has even realized it needs its pants.)"

By metmike - Feb. 12, 2020, 8:21 p.m.
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Here is the latest graph of cases and deaths in China. This is the same one I've shown here numerous times the past few weeks. Using math/science at the top of this thread several days ago,  we pointed out the decreasing slope and the potentially good news that it suggested...........which is being confirmed, as you can see that the slower rate of daily increase, as one would expect with this trend, is continuing and even looks like the number of new daily cases is actually decreasing. 

It's still early and nothing is for sure but these numbers are actually even better than I was expecting at this point based on the situation just a couple of weeks ago. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.[112]

By cutworm - Feb. 12, 2020, 11:26 p.m.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports.[77][78]

On 12 February, the Hubei government adopted a broader definition of confirmed cases, which now includes "clinically diagnosed" patients diagnosed by their symptoms and CT scans but without nucleic acid test, which can take days to process and delay treatment. "Using CT scans that reveal lung infection would help patients receive treatment as soon as possible and improve their chances of recovery," the provincial health commission said.[79] This new methodology accounts for the sharp increase in Hubei's daily confirmed cases: 13,332 of the 14,840 newly confirmed case in the province on 12 February was diagnosed clinically under the new definition.[80]


By cutworm - Feb. 12, 2020, 11:41 p.m.
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To some extent wglassfo was partly right in that we cannot trust the information from china.

 Also check out the non logarithic graph  chart on this site

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

"Based on cases reported and assuming a 10-day delay between infection and detection, researchers at Northeastern University estimated that the number of actual infections may be much higher than those confirmed at the time of reporting. Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections by 26 January, "

cutworm; 1-26 reported 2744, Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections.

    Edit; 10 days later 28010 cases


By metmike - Feb. 13, 2020, 12:36 a.m.
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Thanks cutworm,

Your link is the same one that I've been providing on a regular basis because of the wonderful graphs.

By metmike - Feb. 13, 2020, 1:10 a.m.
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Everybody's assumption that we can't trust the data from China or trust China is EXACTLY what led to the massive flood of disinfomation.

People are thinking "this is deceitful China. China would never be open and tell us how bad it really is. They must be covering it up, so it must be much worse than they are telling us!!!"


Millions of people were ready to believe anything as wild speculation has no limits when it involves the unknown.

The burning/cremating of over a million bodies hoax for instance..........using a picture that shows SO2 from coal burning at their massive steel plant complex. 

No doubt that China is not telling us everything and we should always be skeptical of things that come from China but we still have to remain within the confines of reasonable science/medicine when speculating on things that we do not know. 


For instance, we know that, maybe as much as 3% of people that get this virus may die(mostly sick and elderly).

Using that fact and that 97% of people recover and many of them might not even know that they had the virus because the symptoms were not bad, keeps us grounded to reality. 

Or that 646,000 people get killed by the flu each year on the planet.

Nobody can say for sure what the yearly total killed by the corona virus will be but I'd be willing to bet money that it will be just a fraction of that. 

Let's say that it was 64,000?  or 10%.

In years with an especially potent strain of the flu going around, increases in deaths are more than 10% above that average..........The flu is a virus. The Coronavirus is also a virus. 

It's not some scary new organism from another world that is going to mutate into an entity that wipes out half of the human race............just another (very potent) virus, not that different from the flu that we live(and die) with and accept because the flu is everywhere......every year.



By cutworm - Feb. 13, 2020, 8:42 a.m.
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Mike, lets assume that china is not "trying" to cover anything up. We know that the data from feb 6 to feb 12 was not collected the same way as before feb 5, and is different than data collected after feb 12 therefore the equation changed during that time. Therefore the points feb6-feb12 must be discarded. The graph that showed the downward concave needs to be adjusted. Consistent data is necessary.

By metmike - Feb. 13, 2020, 11:47 a.m.
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cutworm,

I understand completely that we can't trust data from China(and you are making a wonderful point) and that this is a brand new virus with many unknowns and the last piece of information in the last day that shows that its suddenly not getting better at the rate that we were thinking earlier this week is exactly part of this process. 

I have actually been surprised earlier this week that it was getting better already as commented yesterday:

"It's still early and nothing is for sure but these numbers are actually even better than I was expecting at this point based on the situation just a couple of weeks ago. "

So we had this new data point in and reconfigure the meaning of the graph based on the new information, that includes the science/medical element.

Until earlier this week, I was not expecting any signs of improvement for a very long time, so the new data is completely within expectations and does NOT mean it much worse than we thought.

It means its worse than we thought compared to earlier this week.........but not worse than we thought compared to 2 weeks ago or 3 weeks ago(its as expected from my attempted objective position).   Here's the graph with the outlier data point. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Where do we go from here?

There are 2 paths using the data and we MUST use the data we are given. Even if China is covering up, the truth will show up in the data............but just take longer. We also have data from the rest of the world to compare it to. 

Possible path #1. If the last data point shows what is really happening and the previous ones were intentionally made lower to mislead..............we will know from new data points and can assume that its still getting worse at the same rate that it was on the first half of the graph(exponentially higher for some time as expected) . Keep in mind, everybody is assuming that this outlier data point is proof that there is a cover up by China. Could be.......or it could also be a function of other unique elements in the data gathering process because nothing quite like this has ever happened before.


Possible path#2. The new data points go back to showing a decreasing slope that suggest we've passed the inflection point and the rate of the  increase in the daily numbers is getting better(not lower numbers or a lower increase but the rate of the increase is less). This will happen first...........well before we see the actual daily numbers drop. 

Regardless, we can still ignore some of the more extreme facts/ predictions from alarmists because the science and facts don't support that...............like  the burning of a million bodies picture that was actually from burning coal(when we used LEGIT science to bust it)

By metmike - Feb. 13, 2020, 2:54 p.m.
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From yesterday:

China confirms 15,152 new coronavirus cases, 254 additional deaths


Key Points

  • China said it confirmed 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths and that those figures include the ones reported earlier by Hubei province.
  • China’s Hubei province reported an additional 242 deaths and 14,840 new cases as of Feb. 12.
  • The province said it is starting to include “clinically diagnosed” cases in its figures and that 13,332 of the new cases fall under that classification.
By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 8:24 p.m.
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Latest graph. The date of the change in the way that they catagorized confirmed cases is obvious on the graph. Other than this short term adjustment in the slope and values on the graph, it may not affect the more important LONGER TERM metrics which actually matter.

More data is needed to confirm that this was just an outlier spike higher. 

Again, we may not see cases and deaths going down each day for awhile.......possibly next month or April???

Don't hold me to that. It's not a prediction just a wild guess. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.[112]

By metmike - Feb. 15, 2020, 11:14 a.m.
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We have another data point added since my last comment yesterday(even though it shows up and is updated automatically in all of the previous posts with it). 

I'm so focused on this particular graph because it shows numbers. Whether you want to believe them or not, it's the BEST indicator..........by a wide margin of what the situation is. 

No fear/emotions.

No sensationalizing. 

No editorializing in stories.

No fake news, like the cremating of a million bodies. 


The Feb 14 data point shows a 2nd straight day where the number plunged............not at all because the number of cases plunged in reality but because the 1 day spike higher from 2 days earlier, was in fact an outlier and tied to the way that China reports actual cases.............not necessarily a cover up as this is an unprecedented event and its not as if they were not following protocol.  New protocol is being established right now and being adjusted because we are in uncharted territory. 

To confirm this 1 day spike was an outlier and not part of it being MUCH worse than we thought, we need a few more data points that don't show a sharp turn higher. If we get those points, it doesn't mean that we are close to being out of the woods, just that its progressing in a manner expected by known science and medicine and what we don't know about this new virus isn't packed with big (bad) surprises. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.

Here are the previous links on the Coronavirus again:

     

 Coronavirus                    

                28 responses |              

                Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46353/



                China finds virus code                        

                11 responses |             

                Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/


 Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World            

                            8 responses |                

                Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/

             

   Corona  Virus            

            

                21 responses |                

                Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47120/


Where does my info come from            

                            6 responses |                

                Started by wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:42 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47204/

By metmike - Feb. 16, 2020, 1:57 p.m.
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Another day, another data point. The additional drop is more good news but its just 1 day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

Semi-log plot of daily new confirmed cases and deaths in China.

February 15 coronavirus news

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Spike in numbers: There's been a spike in numbers because China changed how cases are tabulated. The total will now include people who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have not been tested, or are believed to have falsely tested negative.