INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 11, 2020, 7:45 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, February 11, 2020 



6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism



                       Small Business Idx (previous 102.7)



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.7%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.1%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)



10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.2M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.0M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)



Wednesday, February 12, 2020 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 682.0)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.0%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 283.8)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -9.5%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 2975.7)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)



10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 435.009M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.355M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 261.144M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.091M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 143.235M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.512M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.4%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.835M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.197M)



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



Thursday, February 13, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 202K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1751000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +48K)



8:30 AM ET. January CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.5%; previous +2.3%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%; previous +2.3%)



8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1338.5K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 707.8K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 338.6K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing considers Federal Reserve Board nominees



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2609B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -137B)

                       

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, February 14, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.3%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)



8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected -0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)



9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous -0.3%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 76.8%; previous 77.0%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.4)



10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous -0.2%)



10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.2; previous 99.1)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.3)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.8)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9221.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9583.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9221.65. Second resistance is the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8879.36.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3240.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3363.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3302.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3240.83.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight following a three-day bounce off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-23.  



March T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.126 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.126. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.144.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 50.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.72. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 49.31. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.



March heating oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 172.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 145.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 187.52. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 156.84. Second support is monthly support crossing at 145.80.     



March unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March extends the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 154.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.32. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08. 



March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.900 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.900. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.082. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.753. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off the December 31st low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 98.81. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.75.  



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 110.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.71. First support is the overnight low crossing at 109.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 109.21.    



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0340 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0314. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0340. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0252. Second is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207.



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 75.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91. First support is Monday's low crossing at 75.02. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 0.0909 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 0.0932 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1534.50.



March silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is January's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935. 



March copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $265.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $262.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $265.66. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.       



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. Traders are awaiting today's monthly supply-demand report to see of the USDA makes any surprise adjustments, which appears doubtful at this time. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at $3.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat was lower overnight and is poised to renew the decline off January's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.46 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.64 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.64 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.46 1/2. Second support is the December 23rd low crossing at $5.40. 

   

March Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at $4.72 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.81 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.81 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.  



March Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.43 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.98 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the May-2018-low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.    



March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $294.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 294.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $299.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.    



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.70. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $1.18 at $65.08. 



April hogs closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rebound off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the January 30th gap crossing at 68.67 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 30th gap crossing at $68.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.48. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.   



April cattle closed down $1.13 at $118.68. 



April cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.23. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $118.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.50-cents at $135.70. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.42 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $138.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.42. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.62 would confirm that a low has been posted.



March cocoa closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.            



March sugar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.58 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.   



March cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's  high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.  

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