Wow, soybeans starting with a 1 back in 1960!
http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/uspricehistory/USPrice.asp
US Monthly Average Soybeans Price Received |
Year | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Avg* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$/bu. | |||||||||||||
1960/1961 | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.99 | 2.23 | 2.48 | 2.68 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 2.60 | 2.48 | 2.49 | 2.13 |
1961/1962 | 2.34 | 2.20 | 2.27 | 2.30 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.36 | 2.34 | 2.35 | 2.33 | 2.28 |
1962/1963 | 2.25 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.41 | 2.50 | 2.51 | 2.45 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.44 | 2.45 | 2.34 |
1963/1964 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.66 | 2.58 | 2.65 | 2.57 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 2.36 | 2.35 | 2.34 | 2.35 | 2.51 |
1964/1965 | 2.51 | 2.55 | 2.57 | 2.71 | 2.73 | 2.81 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.72 | 2.74 | 2.69 | 2.53 | 2.62 |
1965/1966 | 2.35 | 2.31 | 2.36 | 2.48 | 2.67 | 2.77 | 2.71 | 2.78 | 2.90 | 3.04 | 3.37 | 3.49 | 2.54 |
1966/1967 | 2.97 | 2.78 | 2.80 | 2.82 | 2.77 | 2.71 | 2.74 | 2.71 | 2.69 | 2.71 | 2.66 | 2.56 | 2.72 |
1967/1968 | 2.53 | 2.44 | 2.43 | 2.48 | 2.53 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.56 | 2.58 | 2.54 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.49 |
1968/1969 | 2.40 | 2.32 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.46 | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2.51 | 2.56 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.43 |
1969/1970 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.36 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.48 | 2.52 | 2.60 | 2.72 | 2.65 | 2.35 |
1970/1971 | 2.66 | 2.77 | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.86 | 2.92 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 2.85 |
1971/1972 | 2.95 | 2.96 | 2.84 | 2.93 | 2.92 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.37 | 3.35 | 3.32 | 3.34 | 3.36 | 3.03 |
1972/1973 | 3.26 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 3.95 | 4.11 | 5.49 | 6.04 | 6.14 | 8.27 | 10.00 | 6.69 | 8.99 | 4.37 |
1973/1974 | 5.81 | 5.63 | 5.14 | 5.65 | 5.87 | 6.07 | 5.96 | 5.15 | 5.21 | 5.13 | 6.11 | 7.55 | 5.68 |
1974/1975 | 7.32 | 8.17 | 7.44 | 7.03 | 6.30 | 5.72 | 5.31 | 5.60 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 5.28 | 5.80 | 6.64 |
1975/1976 | 5.32 | 4.92 | 4.45 | 4.28 | 4.46 | 4.50 | 4.46 | 4.52 | 4.87 | 6.16 | 6.73 | 6.07 | 4.92 |
1976/1977 | 6.65 | 5.90 | 6.11 | 6.56 | 6.81 | 7.06 | 7.83 | 9.05 | 9.24 | 8.13 | 6.52 | 5.48 | 6.81 |
1977/1978 | 5.17 | 5.28 | 5.61 | 5.68 | 5.75 | 5.53 | 6.20 | 6.49 | 6.77 | 6.69 | 6.40 | 6.21 | 5.88 |
1978/1979 | 6.20 | 6.26 | 6.41 | 6.49 | 6.58 | 6.99 | 7.16 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.36 | 7.36 | 7.07 | 6.66 |
1979/1980 | 6.81 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 6.27 | 6.39 | 6.20 | 5.94 | 5.63 | 5.76 | 5.91 | 6.75 | 7.18 | 6.28 |
1980/1981 | 7.59 | 7.68 | 8.18 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.50 | 7.59 | 7.60 | 7.40 | 7.05 | 7.13 | 6.71 | 7.57 |
1981/1982 | 6.21 | 6.06 | 6.04 | 6.00 | 6.13 | 6.04 | 5.99 | 6.17 | 6.27 | 6.12 | 5.99 | 5.59 | 6.07 |
1982/1983 | 5.22 | 5.06 | 5.34 | 5.46 | 5.56 | 5.66 | 5.82 | 6.09 | 6.06 | 5.90 | 6.27 | 7.57 | 5.71 |
1983/1984 | 8.28 | 7.96 | 7.81 | 7.75 | 7.85 | 7.28 | 7.68 | 7.83 | 8.12 | 7.99 | 6.95 | 6.50 | 7.83 |
1984/1985 | 6.09 | 6.07 | 6.01 | 5.82 | 5.91 | 5.77 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.70 | 5.62 | 5.42 | 5.10 | 5.84 |
1985/1986 | 4.99 | 4.85 | 4.92 | 5.01 | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.23 | 5.23 | 5.25 | 5.19 | 5.11 | 4.99 | 5.05 |
1986/1987 | 4.85 | 4.55 | 4.64 | 4.67 | 4.70 | 4.69 | 4.73 | 4.90 | 5.20 | 5.36 | 5.25 | 5.02 | 4.78 |
1987/1988 | 5.02 | 5.04 | 5.36 | 5.63 | 5.73 | 5.96 | 6.05 | 6.39 | 6.98 | 8.18 | 8.50 | 8.33 | 5.88 |
1988/1989 | 7.93 | 7.53 | 7.43 | 7.53 | 7.69 | 7.41 | 7.51 | 7.29 | 7.20 | 7.05 | 6.83 | 6.07 | 7.42 |
1989/1990 | 5.70 | 5.55 | 5.66 | 5.64 | 5.65 | 5.56 | 5.65 | 5.82 | 5.97 | 5.88 | 5.97 | 6.00 | 5.69 |
1990/1991 | 5.99 | 5.88 | 5.78 | 5.72 | 5.71 | 5.65 | 5.76 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.56 | 5.36 | 5.66 | 5.74 |
1991/1992 | 5.64 | 5.48 | 5.48 | 5.45 | 5.54 | 5.59 | 5.67 | 5.66 | 5.87 | 5.94 | 5.59 | 5.40 | 5.58 |
1992/1993 | 5.36 | 5.26 | 5.36 | 5.61 | 5.58 | 5.56 | 5.65 | 5.73 | 5.81 | 5.90 | 6.56 | 6.56 | 5.56 |
1993/1994 | 6.21 | 6.01 | 6.32 | 6.64 | 6.72 | 6.71 | 6.73 | 6.57 | 6.77 | 6.72 | 5.92 | 5.58 | 6.40 |
1994/1995 | 5.47 | 5.30 | 5.36 | 5.41 | 5.47 | 5.40 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.56 | 5.68 | 5.90 | 5.83 | 5.48 |
1995/1996 | 5.98 | 6.16 | 6.40 | 6.76 | 6.78 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.43 | 7.69 | 7.41 | 7.62 | 7.82 | 6.72 |
1996/1997 | 7.79 | 6.94 | 6.90 | 6.91 | 7.13 | 7.38 | 7.97 | 8.23 | 8.40 | 8.16 | 7.52 | 7.25 | 7.35 |
1997/1998 | 6.72 | 6.49 | 6.86 | 6.72 | 6.69 | 6.57 | 6.40 | 6.26 | 6.26 | 6.16 | 6.14 | 5.43 | 6.47 |
1998/1999 | 5.25 | 5.18 | 5.39 | 5.37 | 5.32 | 4.80 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 4.50 | 4.44 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 4.93 |
1999/2000 | 4.57 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 4.62 | 4.79 | 4.91 | 5.00 | 5.19 | 4.93 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 4.63 |
2000/2001 | 4.59 | 4.45 | 4.55 | 4.78 | 4.68 | 4.46 | 4.39 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.46 | 4.79 | 4.85 | 4.54 |
2001/2002 | 4.53 | 4.09 | 4.16 | 4.20 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 4.38 | 4.47 | 4.64 | 4.88 | 5.35 | 5.53 | 4.38 |
2002/2003 | 5.39 | 5.20 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.59 | 5.82 | 6.07 | 6.09 | 5.82 | 5.68 | 5.53 |
2003/2004 | 6.06 | 6.60 | 7.05 | 7.17 | 7.35 | 8.28 | 9.28 | 9.62 | 9.56 | 9.08 | 8.46 | 6.83 | 7.34 |
2004/2005 | 5.84 | 5.56 | 5.36 | 5.45 | 5.57 | 5.42 | 5.95 | 6.03 | 6.20 | 6.58 | 6.84 | 6.15 | 5.74 |
2005/2006 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.62 | 5.77 | 5.88 | 5.67 | 5.57 | 5.52 | 5.68 | 5.61 | 5.61 | 5.23 | 5.66 |
2006/2007 | 5.24 | 5.52 | 6.07 | 6.18 | 6.38 | 6.87 | 6.95 | 6.88 | 7.13 | 7.51 | 7.56 | 7.72 | 6.43 |
2007/2008 | 8.18 | 8.36 | 9.41 | 10.00 | 9.96 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 12.00 | 12.10 | 13.20 | 13.30 | 12.80 | 10.10 |
2008/2009 | 10.70 | 9.94 | 9.38 | 9.24 | 9.97 | 9.55 | 9.12 | 9.79 | 10.70 | 11.40 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 9.97 |
2009/2010 | 9.75 | 9.44 | 9.53 | 9.80 | 9.79 | 9.41 | 9.39 | 9.47 | 9.41 | 9.45 | 9.79 | 10.10 | 9.59 |
2010/2011 | 9.98 | 10.20 | 11.10 | 11.60 | 11.60 | 12.70 | 12.70 | 13.10 | 13.20 | 13.20 | 13.20 | 13.40 | 11.30 |
2011/2012 | 12.20 | 11.80 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 11.90 | 12.20 | 13.00 | 13.80 | 14.00 | 13.90 | 15.40 | 16.20 | 12.50 |
2012/2013 | 14.30 | 14.20 | 14.30 | 14.30 | 14.30 | 14.60 | 14.60 | 14.40 | 14.90 | 15.10 | 15.30 | 14.10 | 14.40 |
2013/2014 | 13.30 | 12.50 | 12.70 | 13.00 | 12.90 | 13.20 | 13.70 | 14.30 | 14.40 | 14.30 | 13.10 | 12.40 | 13.00 |
2014/2015 | 10.90 | 9.97 | 10.20 | 10.30 | 10.30 | 9.91 | 9.85 | 9.69 | 9.58 | 9.58 | 9.95 | 9.71 | 10.10 |
2015/2016 | 9.05 | 8.81 | 8.68 | 8.76 | 8.71 | 8.51 | 8.56 | 9.04 | 9.76 | 10.20 | 10.20 | 9.93 | 8.95 |
2016/2017 | 9.43 | 9.30 | 9.46 | 9.64 | 9.71 | 9.86 | 9.69 | 9.32 | 9.26 | 9.10 | 9.42 | 9.24 | 9.47 |
2017/2018 | 9.35 | 9.18 | 9.22 | 9.30 | 9.30 | 9.49 | 9.81 |
Looking at this brings back memories from a long time ago. The corn cycle bottomed in 1986, and the bottom before that was 1960. Beans reflect that. The previous bottom was 1932, of course. According to this cycle, we should see a strong counter trend rally very soon, followed by a final bottom in cash corn in 2024.
A fly in the ointment, however, is that the person who I consider the best economic historian is calling for a big rally into that time - due to a big cool-down in the weather. That's his guess, at least.
No one knows. Chaotic systems are not predictable - although the thirty year bull in corn did unfold as perfectly as a person could want it to.
Here's a chart of July meal. Just above 350 looks like good support. Timing wise, eight weeks from the last high should provide a good window - so sometime the last week of June - into the fourth of July, of course.
Just a guess, if anyone is looking for a possible resumption of the bull market.
200 day moving avg 349 which would also if the gap. Also means beans are going lower right now.
Good stuff.
SX down 70c from their highs on the night after Memorial Day............less than 2 weeks ago.