KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 13, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 202K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1751000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +48K)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.5%; previous +2.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%; previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1338.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 707.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 338.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing considers Federal Reserve Board nominees
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2609B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -137B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 14, 2020
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)
9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous -0.3%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 76.8%; previous 77.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.4)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous -0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.2; previous 99.1)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.8)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 closed into record high territory on Wednesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9247.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9620.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9363.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9247.44.
The March S&P 500 closed into new highs on Wednesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3307.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3376.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3307.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3245.32.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this year's rally into record territory. Today's rally was underpinned by news of a slowdown in the number of new cases of the coronavirus in China.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28,620.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29,535.98. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,018.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28,620.78.
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March T-bonds closed down 24/32's at 161-23.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-01 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 164-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 164-05. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-25.
March T-notes closed down 95 pts. at 130.225.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.148 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.148. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.152.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.36 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.36. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 54.37. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 49.52. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.
March heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 171.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, the June 2017-low crossing at 156.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 171.22. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.55. First support is February's low crossing at 156.84 Second support is the June 2017-low crossing at 156.49.
March unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.85 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.17 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 159.08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.17. First support is February's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday filling Monday's gap crossing at 1.842 as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.887 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.887. Second resistance is the January 21st gap crossing at 1.977. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.753. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.84.
The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off the December 31st high crossing at 11.29. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 110.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.58. First support is today's low crossing at 108.87. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that low might be in or is near. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2885. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0207 is the next downside target. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0334 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0334. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0418. First support isthe 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0252. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0207.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength on Thursday. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, September's low crossing at 74.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.05. First support is Monday's low crossing at 75.01. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.90.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0919 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing 0.0909. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0906.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. If this support level is broken, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1536.40 is the next downside target. If April resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $1598.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1536.40.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the January 18th low crossing at 16.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.375 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is January's low crossing at 17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at 16.935.
March copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.33 is the next upside target. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.33. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.87. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 248.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up $0.03 1/4-cents at 3.83.
March corn closed higher on Wednesday while extending the December-February trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at $3.94 are needed to confirm an upside trading range breakout while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $3.75 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at $3.71. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat closed up $0.5 1/2-cents at $5.47 1/2.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.52. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.63 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.63 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $5.38 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.71.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.79. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at $5.31 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.42 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.42 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
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March soybeans closed up $0.07-cents at $8.91 3/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.16 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $0.50 at $291.30.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $294.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $294.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $299.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil closed up 31-pts. at 31.03.
March soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 29.81. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54.
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April hogs closed down $0.45 at $63.78.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 30th gap crossing at $68.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.84. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $0.68 at $117.85.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.38-cents at $135.05.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $138.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.33. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.47 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply higher for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.71 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.