KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 13, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 202K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1751000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +48K)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.5%; previous +2.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%; previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1338.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 707.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 338.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing considers Federal Reserve Board nominees
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2609B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -137B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 14, 2020
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)
9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous -0.3%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 76.8%; previous 77.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.4)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous -0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.2; previous 99.1)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.8)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as reports of new coronavirus cases dampened enthusiasm for stocks and led to a sell off in global markets. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9271.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9628.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9271.65. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3310.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3382.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3310.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3250.31.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-28.
March T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.174 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.174. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.165.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.02. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 54.37. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 49.31. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.
March heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 145.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.13. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.55. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 156.84. Second support is monthly support crossing at 145.80.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 151.32 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.12 Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 168.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 151.33. Second support is February's low crossing at 143.45.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.875 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.875. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.067. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.753. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 98.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.93.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.93. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.42. First support is the overnight low crossing at 108.75. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0325 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0298. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0325. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0236. Second is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 75.01 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.06. First support is Monday's low crossing at 75.02. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0919 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0908. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1536.40.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is January's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $263.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $262.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $263.01. First support is February's low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at $3.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.62 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.62. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.71.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.79. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.29 1/2. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.82 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $293.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $299.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.45. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.45 at $63.78.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 30th gap crossing at $68.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.84. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $0.68 at $117.85.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.38-cents at $135.05.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $138.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.33. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.47 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply higher for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.71 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks Tallpine!!
US weather turned milder overnight, then 12z models were a bit colder.
Natural gas report(EIA) was bullish.