I'll guess  higher too but if the GFS ens comes out as mild as the 12z run, that may not hold for long.

Gap higher?

We have a gap higher that starts at 1.854, the high for Friday, up to 1.874, the low so far this evening.

The 18z GFS ens actually had 1 more HDD vs the cold 0z though the unreliable end of it was not as cold.

The high this evening was 1.910, which took out the previous February high of 1.906 on Feb 6th.

This was the highest price since Jan. 29th.

Earlier in the previous week, we had a gap lower(from extremely mild temps) on Sunday Night. This happened on Jan. 21. 

That gap is between 1.977(previous Fri low) and 1.963, which was the high for the following trading day, Monday.

Should forecasts keep turning colder this week, that gap could be a target for this move higher. 

Tonight's gap higher should be seen as a bullish upside breakaway gap........unless it gets filled because the forecast turns much warmer, which would make the charts potentially less bullish but even if we stay warm, it seems unlikely that we will make new lows, below last weeks 1.753 on Feb. 11. 

Larry,

Thanks for getting the ng thread started again this week! Your posts and comments are of great value here and to me personally. 

Previous thread on natural gas:

                NG weeks of 2/2/20 and 2/9/20            

                            53 responses |                

                Started by WxFollower - Feb. 2, 2020, 5:48 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46834/

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending February 7, 2020   |  Released: February 13, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: February 20, 2020 

                                                                                               -115 BCF           bullish for the 5th week in a row  according to Larry.                                                                                        

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,494 Bcf as of Friday, February 7, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 115 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 601 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 215 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,279 Bcf. At 2,494 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Latest Release   Feb 13, 2020   Actual-115B             Forecast-110B    Previous-137B

Note the stats above show 5 straight weeks with the actual draw being greater than the forecast...........bullish!

Temperatures for the 7 day period ending 2-8-20 (for that last report) were extremely mild in the Eastern half!

7 day temps for this Thursday............ending 2-15-20.

Colder in  the middle(still mild E/SE) so the draw will be larger. 

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009.

Note the very strong tendency for ng to put in a bottom right around this time frame. In something like 95% of the time, ng prices go up in Mar-May.

US Natural Gas Rig Count:        

110.00  for Wk of Feb 14 2020.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

Lowest since October 2016. Only a bit over half of what it was just a year ago! Low prices are taking a toll and cutting supplies, creating a tighter market.....which should continue thru Spring. 

US Natural Gas Rig Count is at a current level of 110.00, down from 111.00 last week and down from 195.00 one year ago.  This is a change of -0.90% from last week and -43.59% from one year ago.

End of last week discussion by WxFollower and metmike:

                By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 1:51 p.m.            

Weather Friday:  Milder overnight on the 0z Euro, but 12z GFS ens was MUCH colder........again

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47406/

            +++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: NG weeks of 2/2/20 and 2/9/20            

                By WxFollower - Feb. 14, 2020, 3:23 p.m.            

Even with the warmer 0Z GEFS/EPS vs 24 hours earlier, I think the main reasons for today's pre-12Z models modest rise were a very late dialing in of the current very cold Midwest that wasn't even on maps til 7 days ago (coldest of the season), a late dialing in of next week's strong and much more widespread cold that only first showed on maps around 3 days ago and intensified further from there, a retroactive dialing in of yesterday's bullish EIA, which was the 5th bullish EIA in a row, and still vey cheap prices. Also, when compared to 2 days ago, today's 0Z EPS was actually colder. Furthermore, the 6Z GEFS was a much colder run than the 0Z. Then came the similarly cold 12Z GEFS run as Mike mentioned as well as the colder 12Z Euro operational. And the seasonal factor of a low around now may have also been in play in an indirect way I suppose.

                ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                   

                Re: Re: NG weeks of 2/2/20 and 2/9/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 6:56 p.m.            

Extremely well said Larry, hitting on almost all the relevant points. Thanks.

I would add one other element. The gap lower Sunday Night.

The bottom of that gap(from the Sun open and high that day) was 1.813. The top of the gap was 1.842 (from the low of the previous Fri-a week ago, today).

We started filling the gap earlier this week..........very early Wed. AM when the 0z models, especially the Euro turned sharply colder. I think that it was completely filled later in the day after the 12z models continued to get colder. 

After getting back into the previous weeks trading range, completely above the gap for awhile, we could not stay there because of very mild portions of the forecast, especially week 2. 

Last night's milder 0z models pressured prices back below 1.8 briefly but we could not stay down there because of all the factors that Larry mentioned.

When a market is no longer able to stay down on bearish news, after a long, sustained and huge move lower............then it's often a sign that the lows are in.

With the much more bullish EIA numbers recently and the cold this week and coming up, we should have some robust draws coming up.

Also, there the rig count dropped by 1 again........as we have the lowest rig count in over 3 years and just over half of the rigs searching for ng that were active a year ago.  That's what the lowest Feb prices in 21 years will do.

Funds had a record short over a month ago and surely are still major short/did not cover all of it. Any news on that?

With signs of a major bottom screaming, if we can just get the weather in March to help us out with some unseasonable cold, prices should rebound sharply and and fill the gap lower from January 21, Sunday night(between 1.963 and 1.977).

We could do that next week if  late week 2 models continue to suggest a pattern change to much colder.

1. The Southeast US ridge is dead. This is huge. It changes everything and allows cold air farther north to penetrate all the way to the Gulf Coast.

2. The +++AO plummets at the end of 2 weeks, and the NAO drops too, along with the PNA being a tad positive. This is exactly what we need to elevate chances for a cold March in the US.  Initially, air masses coming from Canada will not be that cold in week 2.  However, building upper level heights in the higher latitudes(which is causing the big AO plunge in 2 weeks) if continued, would start tapping some very cold air. 

However, if the southern stream is more dominant and deflects the affects of the northern stream described above to the north, then odds go up for a mild March.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: NG weeks of 2/2/20 and 2/9/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 7:28 p.m.            

We also closed well, especially late afternoon............above the top of the gap.

Still a tad lower for the weekly close(vs last Friday's close) but:

 Closed near the highs of the week after setting contract lows early in the week. Potential gap higher Sunday night if models turn colder over the weekend would be extremely bullish.

This also gave us a Doji hammer type bar on the weekly charts(spiking to new contract lows but closing very close to the high of the week) -bullish reversal pattern formation. 

Hammer Doji – Bullish Reversal Candlestick Patterns

https://www.investdiva.com/investing-guide/hammer-doji-candlestick-patterns/

             ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Re: NG weeks of 2/2/20 and 2/9/20            

                By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 8:05 p.m.            

The ng rig count was down to 110, the lowest since October 2016. Down from 200 in early 2019, which was the peak. 

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

As Larry mentioned, we've had 5 straight bullish EIA storage reports, so the supplies are finally  drying up in a market that was oversupplied for a couple of years but could never get ahead because of increased weather demand.

That  weather demand fell apart the last 2 months and has allowed for a big surplus to build quickly............and caused record low prices. 

There was great incentive for sellers when prices were higher and we were adding a ton of ng vs the seasonal average. 

Prices are the lowest in the last 21 years for the month of February and we will not be adding to the surplus like before. Sellers will be asking what the downside potential/profit is for a market down here, at 1.850?

With the supply side tightening up from all indicators, the refill/injection season could be weak. 

Extreme temperatures will now have a better chance to erode the surplus vs previous storage levels at the same time of year. 

It all sounds bullish but if this very mild Winter that is now featuring a couple of big cold waves,  morphs back to unusually warm in March, it can offset much of that. 

If its warm enough in March for the surplus to grow, for instance. However, with  high confidence, if we have a very chilly March, prices will be higher to much higher in a month compared to February 14th. 

What trader would want to be short with all these other bullish factors AND bullish weather?

Besides warm temps in March, what other bearish factors could present themselves?

A big economic slow down. In late 2008/2009, the recession caused industrial demand for ng to plunge. I think it was January 2009, when we had one of the coldest air masses in years barrelling into much of the US and it hardly caused ng to pause on its plunge lower.

Of course that was also when natural gas from horizontal fracking was suddenly gushing in and prices the previous 5 years were historically, very, very high(2.5 to 5 times as high as they are now) and had a long way down to go.

Also, the Coronavirus is apparently affecting the global natural gas market (from a decrease in Chinese demand) that is major OVER supplied already. 

More on the next page.

Would less ng exports to China from the US have the ability to pressure prices?  Probably not and the Coronvirus will runs its course in a few months, with everything reverting back to the way it was before. 

Report: The United States Will Be the World’s Top LNG Exporter in the Next Five Years

https://www.energyindepth.org/report-the-united-states-will-be-the-worlds-top-lng-exporter-in-the-next-five-years/

This trend is expected to continue with IEA predicting that by 2024 the United States will represent more than one-third (35 percent) of global natural gas production growth.

The Incredible Growth of U.S. LNG

The first shipment of U.S. LNG from the lower 48 states was exported in February 2016, and it has been full-speed ahead ever since. As Reutersreported shortly before the shipment left Louisiana:

“Expected to become an importer of LNG just a decade ago, the shale gas revolution in the United States that unlocked cheap, abundant supplies has wreaked havoc on global gas markets as LNG meant for the country was redirected around the world.”

U.S. LNG exports more than quintupled from 2016 to 2018, with the United States exporting a record nearly 1.1 tcf of LNG in 2018. That’s about 189 billion cubic feet (bcf) more than 2016 and 2017 combined.

And as the IEA report explains, there are no signs of this growth slowing down. At the end of May, the Department of Energy announced the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas was approved to export additional domestically produced natural gas. 

4-hour candle chart of ngas, pure technical. Purple gap zones and Fib retraces and projections.  

Thanks hayman!

Monday's weather(much colder than Friday-mainly European Ensembles):  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47563/

The bullish upside break away gap from last Evening's open, remains wide open and we've been able to build on gains since then.

Possibly, only a sharp turn to MUCH milder temperatures can take us back down there now.(which can still happen)

However, this is also holiday trading which is missing some usual participants and a bit less reliable.

We filled the gap lower from January....barely.

The gap WAS from 1.963 to 1.977.

The high has been 1.978

High today 1.983 but the European Ensembles came out when we were up there with a much milder end to the 2 week forecast(last several days)....so we've sold off a bit from the highs.

Tuesday  weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47645/

NGI after the close on Tuesday:

Natural Gas Futures Surge as Prospects Improve for Chilly End to Winter; Cash Rallies as Storm Arrives

     5:25 PM    

Weekend weather models achieved a feat that has remained elusive over the winter so far, turning massively colder over the extended holiday weekend and sending the natural gas futures surging to start the work week. The March Nymex gas futures contract jumped 14.4 cents to settle Tuesday at $1.981/MMBtu. April shot up 11.5 cents to $1.971

NGI Wednesday early

Natural Gas Futures Pull Back Early as Cold Trends Stall

Weather Wednesday:

MILDER, especially the 12z run of the GFS this morning.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47687/

NG refuses to go lower when  the  models, like the 12z runs are milder. 

Not reacting at all the weather that is less bullish...............at least not the last 24 hours, other than brief blips down a bit, that hold..........so far.

I suppose that if we get warm enough and keeping morphing warmer to the point of having much above temps in widespread fashion ahead, we can go lower but no way will we drop close to the lows. 

Seasonal turn up this time of year.  Crude rally might have been an influence.  The fact that NG is $2 and is cheap is probably a factor.  

 Also, the 12Z Euro ens came in a little bit colder than the 0Z run (~+4 HDD), which seemed to support NG late in its run. Mar NG rose during the 1:28-30 PM settle period after a very shortlived sharp drop to session lows when April had risen sharply to session highs and then fell. That was a strange settle period that appeared to involve some kind of spread activity. Did anyone notice that

Yes, I was watching that very closely Larry.

I wasn't watching the April at the time but now that you mentioned it, pulled it up.

Wow. Very odd.

The March/front month spiked thru the lows of the day, for just seconds, then came back and finished fairly strong after 1:30p  from the EE being colder in week 2.

During those exact same seconds, the April spiked above the highs of the day/week and move, then came back down to close around the highs of the move.

One of the most reliable seasonal trades this time of year is long Apr, May and June. 

and the spread is short Mar against those. 

I don't know if it was a fat finger trade or what but it must have come from the same source(s).

Huge selling of the Mar on the close and huge buying of the April simultaneously.

Just checked and May and June also did the same spike to new highs on the close just like April.  Maybe this is a seasonal trade rec to put on that is being followed by several entities or funds. 

Considering the dynamics of this market right now, no matter how warm it is, it's very likely that prices will be higher in April and May. 

That's almost always the case in every year but even more so this year.

Temps warming a bit in the forecast today, that would have caused ng to drop and stay down 2 months or even 1 month ago. 

We are not going to attract as much aggressive selling in month of February with the fundamentals getting pretty bullish, the low prices and strong seasonality of strength from here to May. 

98% sure that the lows are in.

We won't need to add more cold to make new highs for this move, with the back months likely to go higher no matter what(though they could fall some temporarily from very mild forecast updates)

NGI after the close:  

as Futures Take Step Back as Weather Models Diverge; Cash Stays Strong on Current Cold

     5:19 PM    

The momentum that weather models garnered over the last few days sputtered on Wednesday, with natural gas futures prices retreating a bit after warmer revisions to the long-range outlook. The March Nymex gas futures contract closed the session at $1.955, down 2.6 cents from Tuesday’s close. April was unchanged at $1.971

Patience!! It takes a little time for NG to change trend. And it is now in position to change. However. We are in late february, which means that the weather could change dramatically, in only a few days notice. Yes, meteorology has advanced it's skills quite dramatically in the last decade, but it still isn't 100%. Model predictions change on a daily basis. Roll the dice.

We have plenty of gas in storage for the moment. Pretty soon, the focus is going to change from heating concerns, to electrical generation concerns for HVAC. And here we stand in the decisive era. 

I am purposely refraining from trading in NG, until we get through this time frame. I personally, see sideways movement for the next month. Narrow range trading. One can still profit from it, if they are minding the market all day long.

Thanks Mark!

NGI early Thursday: 

metmike: Models continued to be milder in week 2..........pressuring prices.

NG is very bullish but the weather is turning bearish again.

EIA forecast -147 bcf??

Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Lower Ahead of EIA’s Storage Report

     8:57 AM    

With the weather outlook mostly steady overnight, and with the market looking ahead to new storage data from Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas futures were trading slightly lower early Thursday. The March Nymex contract was off 0.9 cents to $1.946/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending February 14, 2020   |  Released: February 20, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: February 27, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -151 BCF

Bullish for the 6th week in a row!                                                                                                                                                                          

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,343 Bcf as of Friday, February 14, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 151 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 613 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 200 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,143 Bcf. At 2,343 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Been away.

Could NOT resist--bought a call, expires tomorrow!

Welcome back tjc!

Thursdays weather:  Not as cold but still cold enough at the moment with very bullish fundamentals, including another bullish EIA report.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47742/

NGI less than an hour after the EIA report:

Bullish EIA Storage Figure Sparks Rally for Natural Gas Futures

After the bullish induced spike to new highs for the move from the EIA report, ng was overwhelmed with the much milder changes to weather forecasts.

I feel pretty much the same as Mark. I sold a put last night and bought it back on this morning's spike. I have also traded a couple of mini NG contracts and made a small profit on those. I sleep better with the very small contract :-). If NG doesn't rise much tomorrow I will likely sell another putt. 

Thanks Grant!

The reversal lower after spiking well above $2 was very impressive. 

Obviously induced by milder weather models but the market waited until well after the spike higher(which peaked an hour after the bullish EIA report) to sell off, which made it difficult to trade. 

Overnight forecasts were already milder when we were making new highs for the move for an hour after the EIA report.

The 12z guidance came out even milder though, so the selling pressure continued after each set of milder guidance came out. 

Earlier this week, when a milder set of maps came out., we would drop, then come right back each time.

This time, however it looks like a major pattern change to milder...........vs earlier in the week.

The AO stays solidly positive and NAO is not dropping below 0, so its questionable how much cold air will be coming this way in March right now. 

NGI after the close:

$2 Natural Gas Slips from Traders’ Grip Despite Supportive EIA Data; Weather Models Trend Warmer

Incredibly, we almost went down to the top of the gap higher from Sunday Nights open.

That gap is between 1.854(Fri high) and 1.874(Sun low).

The low a short while ago was 1.883, so 9 ticks above the top of the gap. Sunday Nights open was 1.880.

This would be a wonderful place to buy if the models turned colder overnight or if March ends up much colder than average..........but the complete opposite is happening, which is why we are going down pretty fast.......more than I thought we would this quickly. 

With the up move from the lows(1.753-Feb 11th), we filled 1 gap that can be seen as an exhaustion gap from February 10th-1.813-1.842.

This week, we had a new upside breakaway gap mentioned above(1.854-1.874), then continued higher and filled the January 21 downside break away gap from 1.863-1.877).

Extremely bullish technical formations.

However, we spiked above $2, then sold off very hard and closed lower for the day, with today's wide range being far in excess of the previous day(outside day., reversal lower from highs of the move). This is potentially very bearish.

If we should fill the Sunday Night gap higher by trading to 1.854, then it completely negates any bullish technicals and in fact, looks more like a gap and crap exhaustion formation but would not really call it that since we only just had life of contract lows last week and the move up was not very long.

My guess is that because funds had HUGE shorts on and were covering big time, they fueled the move higher from the lows and caused us to go up too far, too fast..........from the 1.753 low on 2-11 to the high today, 2-20 of 2.025. 

That's 2,720/contract in just over a week. When prices are very low, you usually don't see huge moves like that so quickly. 

Prices were the lowest in 21 years for the month of Feb. Not sure if thats still the case here. 

I would be shocked if we make new contract lows and there would have to be something I am oblivious of to do it(which is possible).

If March is record warm, maybe we can go a bit lower on the front month.

‘Little Reason to Believe’ in Sustained Eastern Cold as Natural Gas Futures Sell Off Early

     8:57 AM    

Warmer trends in the latest weather data, including signals that cold will have trouble finding its way into the demand centers of the eastern Lower 48, sent natural gas futures several cents lower in early trading Friday. The March Nymex contract was down 5.0 cents to $1.870/MMBtu at around 8:30 a.m. ET

Temps still milder for natural gas than they were early in the week (we didn't quite fill the upside gap higher from Sunday Night-so the bullish technical picture has not been obliterated by yesterdays bearish reversal down) but some guidance still has decent cold.

The low of 1.861?  My quotes are down, still left the lower part of the gap intact. I was actually surprised that we got down there so fast last night.......but it held.

Here's your Friday weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47801/

As you have said before Mike, current gas drillers are either just treading water or pumping gas below cost.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/108d7e3c-a6ec-3473-8f9f-062145606d40/natural-gas-ceo-questions-why.html

 I haven't talked about the supply/demand balance in awhile. There was still another bullish EIA, the 6th in a row. I now have had enough reports to say with confidence that we now have the tightest wx adjusted supply/demand balance, not just since last year, but in a good number of years. It is amazing how much tighter is has gotten vs last winter, which was one of the loosest winters on record. Low prices have really done their job. Based on this, if we have a cool March/April and/or a hot May/summer, prices are likely going to rise substantially. Seasonals average out near a winter low about now. So, there's probably not much downside left from here.

 It can probably fall back some if we have a mild March, but probably not a whole lot imo as a fairly mild Mach is already dialed in per forecasts I've seen and supply/demand is now very tight as mentioned.

 Looking to the immediate future, we have quite a cold airmass on the way for the E US in the 6-10, but that should be dialed in. After that, a substantial warming to a very mild E US is suggested for the 11-15 and beyond but again that's likely dialed in. But IF that period were to turn colder like some GFS runs (yesterday's 18Z and today's 12Z) and today's 12Z Canadian are suggesting, then that would represent upside price risk. The 12Z GEFS hinted at that but the Euro suite was not too excited. The pattern  the last 2 weeks has been to have Arctic air start to appear on models only about 7-10 days out vs waiting to show up at the end of runs. i'd be a bit wary about this possibly happening again in early March based on the operational runs mentioned.

Thanks much Larry.

It's always wonderful to get your experienced insight, especially when you are watching every map on every model run while observing the price action of ng.

Just one tiny comment below that I disagree on. I agree strongly on the 12z GFS ensemble solution that caused ng to spike to new highs immediately(then come back into the previous range) but the 12z Canadian model today had a huge 1 model ensemble warm up.  There were no members that looked cold for the East and the south is looking like anomalous warmth..........on that solution. 

Larry: "But IF that period were to turn colder like some GFS runs (yesterday's 18Z and today's 12Z) and today's 12Z Canadian are suggesting"

Here was my post in the weather thread right after that came out:

"Friday: 12z run. Much milder and looky here, the big upper ridge in the Southeast is making a come back after taking a break for a couple of weeks. Deep trough backs up/retrogrades west. Heavy precip midsection!

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 07, 2020 12 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

Hey Mike. thanks.

 I meant the 12Z CDN operational, not the ens. which I know was warmer in the 11-15. 

 By the way, did you see the 18Z GFS (after mkt close of course? Holy wow if that is even halfway real as it has near the coldest air of the season in some of the E US in early March! IF this is just haflway real, this would likely represent the upside risk I mentioned. The pattern the last 2 weeks has been to have new cold air show up in the 6-10 day period. Is this going to be still another one??

Yes, I saw that Larry.

Was wishing the market was open.  If those changes continue and are on the European ens on Sunday then we might have another gap higher on Sunday Night.

One thing to consider with this 18z solution is it looks especially colder than the one 12 hours ago, the 06z run because the 6z run was much milder than the previous one. This is one reason ng traded at or near the lows for a couple of hours after that came out  very early this morning............until  just after 7am when we hit the new low of 1.861.

Thanks for the clarification on the Canadian model.

I find it very strange that now the Canadian ens is sort of a warm outlier after it was constantly the coldest/worst of all(during the reign of the Southeast US ridge and numerous weeks of widespread MA temps).

All the models were much too cold for over a month but the Can ens was in a league of its own trying to amplify a northern stream aimed at the US. 

It obviously is all in on the southern stream overpowering the pattern and is pumping up the Southeast ridge with that southern jet stream.............at least on this last 12z run.

With such a big difference and battle between the northern and southern streams we could see some major volatility in model solutions.

Sunday weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47864/

Solutions are changing the amounts of cold at different times frames. The longer range still has a mild look.

To me, the over riding factor in the models is the dropping risk for substantive, sustained cold as we progress thru week 2. 

The EE was colder at 0z then gave most of that back at 12z.......which will count the most. HDD's are lower vs Friday. 

The GFS ensemble was looking pretty dang cold on Fri's 12z/18z runs........as we discussed above. It turned MUCH milder on Saturday, then a bit colder the last 3 runs but still milder than Friday.....HDD's are lower vs Friday.

So I will  guess a lower open tonight.   

I am very bullish ng based on factors mentioned early last week and other times, earlier this month, echoed closely by Larry on Friday.

Ideally, the thing that could re ignite the rally from our lows earlier this month, with high confidence is temps turning sharply colder in March.  

But they are turning milder..............so the March weather forecast is actually bearish and may try to fight everything else that is screaming for higher prices around the corner.  A mild March might just delay that.............for awhile. 

ps We do have a couple of stout cold snaps in the next 12 days which is not exactly bearish.

                Re: INO Evening Market Comments            

                By metmike - Feb. 23, 2020, 4 p.m.            

Thanks tallpine!

In ng, the fundamentals have turned very bullish longer term but the weather Sunday is more bearish.

We still have part of the bullish gap higher from last Sunday Night that did not get filled........as we had great buying down there supporting prices.

Then we had the impressive bearish downward reversal on Thursday...........new highs for the move and a sharply lower close.  This was from the market seeing milder temps late last week.

As we open the new trading week, the formation above that looks like it will be signaling early trade is the bearish downward reversal on Thursday. 

Had maps turned  much colder over the weekend, we could have opened sharply higher, even a gap higher and negated that but they didn't.

How mild does it need to be to fill last Sunday's gap higher completely?

And its not as if there aren't a couple of brief cold shots the next 12 days that will increase demand and HDD's vs the forecast just being pure mild all the way out and it being construed as mega bearish/one sided. 

What do you think Larry?

March ng expires on Wed. 2-26.

Often some fireworks ahead of that.

A colder solution on the 18z GFS ens for the 11-14 day time frame has given ng a little pop off the lows.

Since it is not shown as continuing beyond those several days, we may  need more than that to get ng prices overnight above the close Friday.