Just 9 days until Leap Day.......February 29th!
Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Overnight weather was not as cold again but still colder than last Friday's weather for natural gas.
Still NEW: ++++AO and +NAO must drop for sustained major cold! Not there right now.
Not so NEW: Ding, Dong, the long lived upper level ridge in the Southeast US is dead! This will allow cooler air to affect the East/Southeast.
Very old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
New cold surge early/mid next week.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Mix of blue and reds.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Active pattern.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Precip increases a bit in the Midwest.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/dail
Learn About Daily Precipitation
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
January 30 : DROUGHT in TX/SW Plains to points northwest right now. No drought anywhere in the Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Starting with last week below:
Last Saturday: The almost always(this year) too cold Canadian model has REALLY warmed things up late week 2 vs previous forecasts. The average is more zonal, west to east flow which is very mild. Several have a modest ridge W.Canada, trough downstream couplet which would make it much colder in the Midwest..........minority of solutions. No more cross polar flow that is a feature in next weeks cold coming from Canada..........so Canada will REALLY warm up during week 2.
Sunday: Very mild, zonal flow. Near record warmth in Canada.
Monday: 12z model. Extremely mild, west to east zonal flow. Canada will be especially warm so cold fronts will not be very cold in week 2.
Tuesday: 12z run. Still mild.
Wednesday: COLDER than yesterday. Good bye Southeast ridge! This will allow colder air masses to penetrate more deeply southeast. A minority of members rev up the northern stream and drive it deeply into the US, along with a couple that have the polar vortex coming along for the ride. Those seem too extreme right now.
Friday: 12z run. Huge differences based on a battle between southern stream and northern stream. One camp is very cold because it emphasizes the northern stream. The other camp is warm from emphasizing the southern stream. This particular solution is slightly colder than the previous one but similar with everything else.
Saturday: Similar to yesterday. Will the northern stream or southern stream dominate? With the big ridge in the Southeast dead, my money is on the northern stream. After having a cold bias for 2 months, now, with the ridge vanishing, the last week, the models have been having huge warm bias(too warm).
Sunday: 12z run. Battle between southern and northern streams. A few solutions want to build the ridge back up in the far Southeast.
Monday: Similar to Sunday. Trough in the middle of the country has retrograded just slightly. Battle between northern and southern stream. Above precip!
Wednesday: Much more southern stream today and milder. Only a minority still have the northern stream dominant. Significant trough in the Plains..............lots of precip from the Plains, eastward to the East Coast.
Thursday: Same as yesterday. Slightly colder?
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 6, 2020 00UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Monday: The favorable ridge/west, trough east couplet from over the weekend has shifted. The ridge west has retrograded west to the Northeast Pacific to Western Alaska. The downstream trough anomaly has shifted a bit east and the 2 are less connected but still are favorable for bitter cold air............even cross polar flow between them to dump into most of Canada. This means cold fronts that can manage to get into the northern tier will have some frigid air. At the same time, a building positive/ridge anomaly in the Southeast will make it warm there and repel any attempts from the northern stream to send cold air in that direction. This pattern is the recipe for a massive temperature contrast from north to south. Would not be surprized to see near 90 in Florida with near 0 at the same time along the Canadian border.
Tuesday: Big positive anomaly from Northeast Pacific to Alaska and downstream negative anomaly(in far Eastern Canada...bit far away to be an ideal couplet) should drive cold down thru Canada, with some cross polar flow making it a potent brand of cold. However, the mid latitudes are not at all in sync with that cold from the northern stream getting a good(maximized) push very far east and especially not southeast. The reason is an upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast which will resist cold intrusions and induce a southerly (south to north movement) component to mid/upper level steering currents in the Southeast 1/3rd of the country. With the amount of frigid air in S.Canada during week 2, its very likely that a good chunk of that will push well south of the US border behind any waves/perturbations in the flow that tug it down with the north to south winds on the backside.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the Northeast Pacific has shifted east to just off the West Coast of Canada. Downsteam negative anomaly is way up in Northeast Canada.......pretty far away for the flow between them to ideally couple and maximize the southward push of cold. Pretty impressive, growing positive anomaly, centered in the Southeast will make it IMPOSSIBLE for cold air to do anything but make a very brief, very moderated appearance in the Southeast. Huge temp contrast from cold/north to warm/southeast.
Saturday: 2 positive anomalies. 1 centered off the Pac NW Coast and another in the Southeast. Modest positive anomalies between them with the nearest negative anomalies many thousands of miles away............having no flow pattern linkage to the positive anomalies anywhere close to the US. This is the recipe for widespread warmth across North America. No chance for major cold at 2 weeks until this changes.
Sunday: Huge area of positive anomalies stretching across the entire country, with the exception of the far Northeast. This is the recipe for widespread mild weather with Pacific Origin air masses spreading across most of North America. Eastern Canada to the far Northeast might be chilly at times.
Monday: Main positive anomaly is now in the Pac Northwest with some northwest flow down stream but the source region of the air will be very mild. Maybe the positive anomaly/ridge in the Southeast finally weakens.
Tuesday: Long lived, Positive anomaly/ridge in the Southeast is dead. This will give that region a chance to cool off a bit but there is no very cold air around.
Wednesday: New, modest positive anomaly in far northwest Canada to almost the North Pole with weak negative anomaly to southeast Canada..............this change in the high latitudes would need to amplify in order to provide a robust flow of frigid southward into the US.....especially the Northeast US.
Friday: Modest positive anomalies in the high latitudes and slight weakness in the middle latitudes(USA) suggests air will be able to move from Canada southward. However, the air in Canada will be very mild, so cold fronts may not have true Arctic air. The long lived Southeast US positive anomaly/upper level high has vanished..........consistent with all the other solutions this week. This will allow cold air to the north to penetrate all the way to the Gulf Coast, instead of it being blocked as was the case since all of this year previously.
Saturday: The changes noted previously continue to build........lending some confidence. Positive anomalies continue to build across Western to Northern Canada coupled with a nice downstream negative anomaly in the Northeast US. This is a classical, large scale feature pattern to deliver very cold air, deeply into the US. Above average anomalies in the high latitudes..........below average in the mid latitudes. This pattern will cause the AO and NAO to become negative, even though those indices are not yet negative today.
Sunday: This oz run was pretty cold! Much colder than previous runs, much colder than runs after this. Strong positive anomaly from the Northeast Pacific to NW Canada and slight negative anomaly from SW US W.Cornbelt. This is actually quite a bit different from yesterday. The 12z run of this same model was much milder. Though the Euro Ensemble is colder. Much uncertainty.
Monday: At the end of 2 weeks, positive anomalies grow again along the East Coast. Main positive anomaly is off the Pac Northwest Coast. Closest negative anomaly of significance is south of Greenland and not an influence for US.
Wednesday: Moving around a great deal. Positive anomaly retrogrades to the Northwest Pacific with extension into Alaska. Downstream negative anomaly in the center of the US is favorable for widespread cold air to drop into it but some model runs are more zonal and milder than this.
Thursday: Same as Wednesday. Cold in the central US!
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Monday: Some changes. +++++AO drops hard at the end of 2 weeks but still +AO. +NAO also drops a bit late week 2. -PNA actually crosses 0 and becomes positive at the end of 2 weeks. These would be the changes needed and they must continue in that direction for a better signal of sustained cold..........and we are getting late enough in Winter so that the brand of cold is not going to be as bone chilling.
Tuesday: With PNA finally tuning a bit positive and NAO dropping late, there is a chance for the southeast to cool off a bit. However, solidly positive AO means not much cold air from higher latitudes moving to the middle latitudes so Canada will be mild and cold fronts will not be very cold.
Wednesday: AO and NAO still holding on to positives at the end, though dropping a bit............still not ideal for cold air delivery from high to middle latitudes. PNA close to 0, just a tad positive at the end.
Friday: Big changes at the end of the period. +++AO plunges to near zero at the end of 2 weeks and is still dropping. +AO also drops to near 0 and is dropping. PNA a tad positive. These changes make the environment more favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to middle latitudes in sustained fashion.
Saturday: AO and NAO continue to drop in week 2. Still just positive at the end but (I think) headed negative in the next few days. PNA a tad positive can also enhance the NEW set up which will be much more favorable for sustained cold to move from high latitudes(Canada) to.....deeply into the mid latitudes(US).
Sunday: Record high +++++AO in week 1 plunges towards 0 by the end of week 2. +AO also drops to 0. PNA close to 0 but edging towards -PNA late. This was based on 0z guidance. The 12z GFS was so much warmer at this end of week 2 period that I'm taking any solution with a grain of salt now.
Monday: Record high AO drops hard but stays positive in week 2. NAO and PNA close to 0.
Wednesday: Record high +++++AO drops but stays ++AO. We need it negative to have confidence in sustained cold. NAO drops to near 0 from being positive.......more favorable to cold to penetrate deeply into the US. However, the PNA is now morphing negative, which may oppose that.........and bring more cold, farther west.
Thursday: AO stays positive. NAO tiny bit positive. PNA near 0.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Previous posts:
Winter so far for the Nation...warmest on record (beating 2005/2006)
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday
By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:26 p.m.
latest 32 day snowfall on euro vs older run, Tad more robust
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By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:30 p.m.
Snowfall anomalies thru Feb 6 compared to the 2008-2018 avg. Thoughts 1. Sierra Nevada need the Pacific Split to end 2. Central/Northern Rockies ahead 2. Northern Plains have already exceeded a winter's worth of snow 3. Ohio Valley / Appalachians / Northeast wet but not snowy
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By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:32 p.m.
Long-term median number of days per year with snow depth of 1"+ on the ground.
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By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
NEW: The long lived upper level ridge in the Southeast US will be breaking down during week 2! This will allow cooler air to affect the East/Southeast. However, air masses will not be very cold coming from the Pacific or from Canada in week 2.
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By WxFollower - Feb. 12, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
The Arctic (80N to 90N) is cooling down again (see image below). Will it finally get to below normal/colder than 245 K (-28 C) with the extreme and long-lasting +AO?? I'm still hoping.
Note on the image that the coldest day's normal there (per green line) still isn't til ~2/26, when it drops briefly to 242 K (-31 C or -24 F). Also, note that the normal for exactly one month from today (3/12) is still about the same as today's 244 K. So, the point is that the Arctic can still churn out very cold air through about a month from now. That's why if the delivery/upper winds are just right and it is fast enough, it can still get mighty cold even down into the southern US into mid March despite a good bit higher sun by then. March is rarely dull from many perspectives and this is one of the reasons, the battle of the lingering very cold Arctic and the warming in the temperate regions from a higher sun. March, the weather enthusiast's dream month!
Arctic daily mean temps through today, 2/12/2020:
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By metmike - Feb. 12, 2020, 7:43 p.m.
Great points and graph Larry!
This also illustrates the fact that global warming/climate change is warming the coldest places, during the coldest times of year the most.
Since your graph shows this year, Winter only , I provided a year round temp profile for 2016-2018 below as an example of temperatures in the Arctic for the entire year.................staying milder/less harsh in the normally frigid environment of Winter but then every Summer, temperatures are very close to and sometimes BELOW average.
The graph below this one shows each year going back over 45 years. You may need to wait a couple of seconds for it to load. What is amazing is that during the "cold" season, temperatures are consistently above to much above average(less harsh) but every Summer they get back to average(and much of the time, even a bit below average.
So most people may think that its warmer temperatures during the melt season that is melting all the ice but temperatures have frequently been a bit BELOW average during the melt season, which melts less ice.
What is actually happening is that during the rest of the year, during the freeze season temperatures are well above average so not as much of the ice that melted the prior Summer freezes as deeply. This thinner ice, is then easier to melt the next Summer, even with temperatures that are average or even a tad below average(but above freezing and with the sun shining 24 hours a day.
The ice loss was pretty great up until 2012. Since then it has (temporarily) stabilized.
We should note too, that SEA ice is already floating in the sea. Melting it does not add much to sea levels(like an ice cube melting in your drink). This is a big reason for why all that melting Arctic sea ice prior to 2012 did NOT cause an acceleration of the rate of sea level increase.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/10/uah-arctic-temperature-profile/
This (painstakingly created) animation shows the DMI above 80N from 1970 thru Oct 2018. Images sourced from DMI’s Arctic Temperatures page.
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By WxFollower - Feb. 13, 2020, 6:48 p.m.
Here are the daily HDDs from the new (2/13) Euro Weeklies in the far left column alongside those from the prior run (2/10) on the right side. Focus on the 2 HDD columns. Look how much colder they got today for 2/19-23, especially 2/20-1 which each increased by a whopping 9-11 HDDs (see bolded below)! that much colder on those days over just a 3 day span of model runs is amongst the most rapid increases in week 2 you'll ever see on an ensemble run. And, of course, that's why there's suddenly now a winter storm threat to follow for 2/20-2 in the south vs none of the sort as of just 2-3 days ago.
Also, note that 2/26-3/3 are also quite a bit colder vs the Monday run:
Another thing to note is how cold 2/13-15 are on both runs. On the weekly run from one week ago, that cold was nonexistent as that batch of Arctic was hardly dropping into the US.
So, the gist of all of this is that instead of models warming up as the days would get closer as they have been most of the winter due to being cold biased, we're now seeing quite cold airmasses suddenly showing up well before the ends of 2 week runs and in some cases late in week1 which are adding a significant amount of heating demand.
ECMWF-Weeklies | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-10 | ||||||
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Date | HDD | HDD 30Y Climo | HDD 30Y Diff | CDD | CDD 30Y Climo | CDD 30Y Diff | HDD | CDD |
2020-02-13 | 25.96 | 22.62 | 3.34 | 0.57 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 24 | 0.56 |
2020-02-14 | 31.68 | 22.42 | 9.26 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 31.33 | 0.27 |
2020-02-15 | 26.95 | 22.21 | 4.74 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 28.08 | 0.2 |
2020-02-16 | 19.60 | 22.01 | -2.41 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 20.32 | 0.27 |
2020-02-17 | 17.50 | 21.80 | -4.30 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 17.47 | 0.42 |
2020-02-18 | 18.48 | 21.59 | -3.11 | 0.72 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 17.63 | 0.58 |
2020-02-19 | 25.19 | 21.38 | 3.81 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 19.56 | 0.41 |
2020-02-20 | 30.82 | 21.15 | 9.67 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 20.24 | 0.31 |
2020-02-21 | 28.52 | 20.93 | 7.59 | 0.12 | 0.14 | -0.02 | 19.15 | 0.25 |
2020-02-22 | 23.56 | 20.70 | 2.86 | 0.10 | 0.14 | -0.04 | 18.5 | 0.2 |
2020-02-23 | 20.69 | 20.46 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.14 | -0.10 | 18.82 | 0.18 |
2020-02-24 | 18.72 | 20.23 | -1.51 | 0.07 | 0.15 | -0.08 | 19.36 | 0.15 |
2020-02-25 | 19.13 | 19.98 | -0.85 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -0.01 | 19.07 | 0.13 |
2020-02-26 | 21.23 | 19.74 | 1.49 | 0.13 | 0.15 | -0.02 | 19.8 | 0.16 |
2020-02-27 | 23.10 | 19.50 | 3.60 | 0.11 | 0.15 | -0.04 | 21.05 | 0.14 |
2020-02-28 | 23.31 | 19.25 | 4.06 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 21.9 | 0.14 |
2020-02-29 | 23.89 | 19.25 | 4.64 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 22.25 | 0.15 |
2020-03-01 | 24.03 | 19.01 | 5.02 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 22.28 | 0.19 |
2020-03-02 | 23.32 | 18.76 | 4.56 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 21.37 | 0.14 |
2020-03-03 | 21.43 | 18.51 | 2.92 | 0.14 | 0.17 | -0.03 | 21.07 | 0.14 |
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By metmike - Feb. 13, 2020, 11:01 p.m.
That really is incredible Larry!
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By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 1:22 p.m.
Brian Brettschneider@Climatologist49
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Which month of the year has the Best Weather™?
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By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 3:14 p.m.
Take this longer range forecast below with an even smaller grain of salt than usual.
The pattern at the end of week 2, leading up to this features warmth in the north and very chilly in the south.........the opposite of what they have for weeks 3-4.
Regardless, it looks like the huge ridge in the Southeast will be dead, allowing cooler air masses to push deeply south and wiping out the anomalous warmth that has dominated there all year.
Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None | Cookie ID: None
0 likes
By metmike - Feb. 17, 2020, 11:22 a.m.
If you are wondering why it’s been such a mild winter in the US and many other areas in the mid latitudes look no further. The vigorous polar vortex has all the cold air corraled!
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Near perfect circular symmetry in the strong #PolarVortex right now and very close to being centered right over the North Pole. About as far as you can get from any sort of disruption or split.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1229431021457702912
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By metmike - Feb. 17, 2020, 12:06 p.m.
What a wild & complex weather extremity—a 929 millibar beast followed by another meteorological bomb as the pressure of #StormDennis dropped to 920 (one of the lowest on record in this part of the world), & then the 2 combined into a massive cyclone while doing a #Fujiwhara dance
https://twitter.com/i/status/1229093851895336960
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By metmike - Feb. 17, 2020, 3:10 p.m.
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By metmike - Feb. 17, 2020, 3:10 p.m.