INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Feb. 24, 2020, 8:07 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, February 24, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index



                       NAI (previous -0.35)



                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.23)



10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous -0.2)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 10.5)



Tuesday, February 25, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.7%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.0%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.2%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)



9:00 AM ET. December U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices



                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)



                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)



                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)



10:00 AM ET. February Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey



                       Mfg Idx (expected 15.0; previous 20)



                       Shipments Idx (previous 29)



10:00 AM ET. February Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 132.3; previous 131.6)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 102.5)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 175.3)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.2M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.7M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.6M)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 gapped below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9386.89 and fell sharply overnight in conjunction with a global equity selloff, as the spread of the coronavirus raised worries that global economic growth could take a hit. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9386.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9560.35. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9763.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9072.01. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at 8925.50.  



The March S&P 500 gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high crossing at 33.94.90. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3277.85 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into March. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3357.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3321.95. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3394.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3245.40. Second support is the January 31st low crossing at 3215.00.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 166-27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-17.  



March T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 134.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.036 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 132.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 134.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.036. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.250.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 51.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 54.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.39. First support is February's low crossing at 49.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.92.



April heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 160.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the January 29th high crossing at 173.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 183.14. First support is February's low crossing at 157.24. Second support is the contract low crossing at 155.89.  



April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and additional weakness is likely. If March renews the rally off February's low the January 21st high crossing at 186.74 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.61 Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 186.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.86. Second support is February's low crossing at 160.32.  



April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.884 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.027 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.027. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is February's low crossing at 1.788. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.58.  



The March Euro was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.55. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 107.93. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.55.     



The March British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3076 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0275 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0275. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0302. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.



The March Canadian Dollar was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a resumption of the decline off December's high. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.04. First support is February's low crossing at 75.02. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.0892. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0881.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1590.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1605.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1590.40.



March silver was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at $18.895 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $17.786 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $18.875. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $17.786. Second support is February's low crossing at $17.435. 



March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $254.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the January 24th gap crossing at $267.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 24th gap crossing at $267.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $271.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at $254.00. Second support is February's low crossing at $248.75.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight and has broken out below support marked by January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is the overnight low crossing at $3.72 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2. 

   

March Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.05 1/4-cents at $4.68 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below February's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would renew the decline off January's high. If March extends Tuesday's rally, January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $4.58 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.  



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it has renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $5.13 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the January 28th high crossing at $5.49 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $5.21 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $5.13 3/4  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was sharply lower overnight following last-Friday's key reversal down. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/4. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.    



March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's key reversal down. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $291.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $291.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $297.80. First support is February's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.   



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.60. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $.15 at $67.03. 



April hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.90 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.91 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.91. First support is the February 13th low crossing at 62.92. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.   



April cattle closed down $0.90 at $118.25. 



April cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $121.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $121.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.15. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.  

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.60-cents at $140.20. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.96 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.60. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is February's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



May cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.             



May sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.64 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.     



March cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the January 29th high crossing at 70.92 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's  high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 24, 2020, 10:49 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


NG is down hard from much milder week 2 and beyond maps.

Much of the other stuff is trading fear of the coronavirus.