KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.7%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

9:00 AM ET. December U.S. Monthly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. 4^th Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)

10:00 AM ET. February Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected 15.0; previous 20)

                       Shipments Idx (previous 29)

10:00 AM ET. February Consumer Confidence Index

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 132.3; previous 131.6)

                       Expectation Idx (previous 102.5)

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 175.3)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.2M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.6M)

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The March NASDAQ 100 gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as the spread of the corornavirus beyond China raised worries that the decline to overseas economic growth could be more persistent than investors expect. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9070.07 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-March. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9551.38 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 9411.50. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9763.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9070.07. Second support is the January 27^th low crossing at 8925.50.   

The March S&P 500 gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last week's high. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3277.43 confirms that an important top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 3134.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3355.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 3333.50. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3355.64.  First support is today's low crossing at 3317.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 3134.17.  

The Dow gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as the spread of coronavirus spread sparked fear of a global economic hit. A short covering rally in the after noon session tempered some of its earlier losses that saw the stock marked down over 1,000 points before bottoming out for the session. The mid-range close that sets the stage for a steady to higher opening is possible when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 27,610.02. Closes above today's gap crossing at 28,892.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 28,892.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,535.98. First support is today's low crossing at 27,912.44. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 27,610.02. 

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March T-bonds closed up 1-31/32's at 166-30.

March T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 167-11. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24. Second support is the February 6^th low crossing at 160-15. 

March T-notes closed up 295-pts. at 132.255.

March T-notes closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 134.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.038 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 132.285. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 134.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.039. Second support is the February 6^th low crossing at 130.070.        

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April crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.39 is the next upside target. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.10 tempers the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 54.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.39 is the next upside target. First support is today's low crossing at 50.45. Second support is February's low crossing at 49.50.  

April heating oil closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes this year's decline, the June 2017-low crossing at 155.89 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the January 29^th high crossing at 173.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 29^th high crossing at 173.55.Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 183.12. First support is February's low crossing at 157.24 Second support is the June 2017-low crossing at 155.89.

April unleaded gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the January 21st high crossing at 186.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.64. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 186.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20-day moving average crossing at 169.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 160.32. 

April Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.885 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.027 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.027. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is the February 14^th low crossing at 1.831. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.788.         

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.57.

The March Euro closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off the December 31^st high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.64. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.56. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 107.93. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.55.

The March British Pound closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and poised to turn neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3077 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3080. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3225. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2857. Second support isthe 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0275 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0275. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0302. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.

The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday hinting that the rally off February's low might have ended with last-Friday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-September's low crossing at 74.90 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.04. First support is February's low crossing at 75.01. Second support is last-September's low crossing at 74.90. 

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing 0.0892. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0881.  

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April gold closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off November's low. However, profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1589.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1589.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1555.70.

March silver closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off January's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average at 17.784 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.920. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is  the 50-day moving average at 17.784. Second support is the February low crossing at 17.435.  

March copper closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 263.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.53. First support is the February 10^th low crossing at 254.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 248.75.

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March Corn closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at 3.72 3/4. 

March corn closed lower on Monday while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at $3.71 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is today's low crossing at $3.70. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.    

March wheat closed down $0.13-cents at $5.38.  

March wheat closed lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.55 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $5.34. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2.      

March Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.16 1/4-cents at $4.52 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off January's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.38 3/4. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $4.53 1/4. Second support isthe 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.38 3/4.  

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.12-cents at $5.14. 

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 5.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.06.      

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed down $0.15-cents at $8.75 1/2.

March soybeans closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $9.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 29^th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.15 1/4. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.    

March soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $286.20. 

March soybean meal closed lower on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal down and posted a new contract low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $297.80. First support is today's low crossing at $284.80. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.     

March soybean oil closed down 112-pts. at 29.52. 

March soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 28.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.60. First support is today's low crossing at 29.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 28.55.        

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April hogs closed down $2.40 at $64.62. 

April hogs gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.72. First support is the February 13^th low crossing at $62.92. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.   

April cattle closed down $3.00 at $115.25. 

April cattle gapped down and closed limit down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $121.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $121.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.95. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $111.86.  

March Feeder cattle closed down $4.18-cents at $136.03. 

March Feeder cattle gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, February's low crossing at $133.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.47 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.47. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is February's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.       

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  

May cocoa gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.28 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.             

May sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.66 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If May extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.05 is the next upside target.      

March cotton closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 64.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.